champagneravens Three StriKes for Wednesday 8.12
It’s really starting to feel like Jobu owes us some good luck after the past few days. I’ve lost track of how many plays have missed by one strikeout and understand some frustration. Believe me, I feel it too. Mad Max missed his prop by just one and Dylan Bundy cruised because apparently he’s Cy Young now. We don’t have traditonal aces today but there’s still good options. Let’s dig into Three StriKes for Wednesday 8.12 and get after a 3-0 day!
*Note* I think one tweak we might make to Three StriKes as a general statement is to look at unders a bit more. For instance, Luis Castillo was at 7.5 yesterday and I felt strongly he wouldn’t get to eight. I let my general dislike for betting an under get in the way. That will be a bigger part of the article moving forward, even if it’s not today.
StriKe One – Zack Greinke
I’ve been fairly critical of Greinke so far this season as his velocity is terrible compared to normal. However, his number is very low and the Giants represent an opportunity.
The -165 number isn’t super exciting but it certainly tells you that Vegas likes his odds to be over. Since I always have some type of parlay going, I’m fine using this heavy favorite and Greinke did hit five last time out vs the A’s. The projected lineup for the Giants features seven hitters with K rates above 21% since the start of 2019, a big check mark for Greinke.
The crafty veteran for the Astros has leaned on a fastball/changeup 68% of the time so far. The Giants are 12th vs the changeup, but they rank 28th vs the fastball and that is 46% of Greinke’s pitches so far. Five is a low number for him, velocity concerns or not.
Bet – Over 4.5
StriKe Two – Nate Pearson
We’re going with the Blue Jays rookie here and it just so happens that his number is the exact same as Greinke, for both strikeouts and odds.
He’s started two game so far and has struck out five in each while pitching five innings. He’s been heavy on a fastball/slider mix and while the Marlins are top 14 vs the fastball, they are bottom half vs the slider.
Pearson has gotten a whiff 19% of the time on his slider so far and that’s been his strikeout pitch. Six of the projected Marlins hitters have K rates over 21% since last year and the number is favorable for Pearson. He has yet to hit 80 pitches but there’s little reason to think he can’t if things are going well. We’re going with the favorite.
Bet – Over 4.5
StriKe Three – Kenta Maeda
We’ve been picking on the Brewers in the early going and I’m still happy to do so in this spot, as Maeda has been strong to start the season.
With eight of the nine projected hitters sitting over 20% in K rate since last year, Maeda has a very strong chance to go over 5.5 K’s here. Yet again, he’s a heavy favorite that I don’t mind targeting.
Milwaukee’s offense is still in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so this is a good run prevention spot. The one pick with Maeda is the pitch count hasn’t hit 90 yet. While I do hope he can get closer to 100, there’s not a strong limit on him and with Milwaukee’s offense, this is a good bet to take.
Over – 5.5
Record – 26-22
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
