Adam Strangis Three StriKes for Thursday 8.13
Once again, the dreaded “one K away” scenario reared its ugly head as Kenta Maeda finished just one away from his prop. Zack Greinke was our star as he didn’t make us sweat. I guess Nate Pearson didn’t give us a sweat either but for all the wrong reasons. Today is a much shorter slate than normal but we still have some solid options to pick from on Three StriKes for Thursday 8.13.
StriKe One – Anthony DeSclafani
The right for the Reds only has two starts so there’s not a lot to hang our hats on for this year but his number is low and a good sized favorite in Vegas.
The Pirates have brought the K rate down a little bit to about 24% but this is still just a dreadful offense overall. DeSclafani uses his fastball about 53% of the time and the Bucks rank in the bottom five against said pitch. Even the 28% slider from DeSclafani looks like a decent matchup because Pittsburgh is totally neutral against it.
The pitch count has gone from 64 to 88 in his last start so we should feel good about that end of things. Five of the nine hitters in today’s projected lineup have K rate’s above 20% and two more are at 18%. DeSclafani can hit five here.
Bet – Over 4.5
StriKe Two – Tyler Glasnow
Alright, Mr. Glasnow. This is your third appearance in Three StriKes and you’re 0-2 thus far. I’d say you owe us one and I really like the number that he’s set at today.
Glasnow has had a rough start to the season from an ERA standpoint at 5.56. However, the xFIP is 3.50 and suggests he’s not been as bad as some may think. The fly ball rate has spiked by 10% and that’s resulted in a couple home runs. Once he gets that and his 15.7% walk rate in line, things will come together quickly. The 37.3% K rate is what we’re after here.
So far, the fastball has been the pitch of concern for Glasnow. It’s given up all three bombs for a .281 ISO after just five and a .133 mark last year. With the Red Sox being in the bottom half of the league vs the fastball, this a good spot for it to get right. The velocity has been there so it’s just a matter of control. Boston is also the sixth-highest K rate team to RHP at 26.3%.
Bet – Over 5.5
StriKe Three – Jake Arrieta
We talked yesterday about incorporating the under bet a little bit more and I think we have a good spot to do it with Arrieta today.
Baltimore is not a major strikeout offense so far, whiffing only 20.3% vs RHP. That ranks as the third-best mark in the league and is pretty impressive. Arrieta hasn’t had a K rate over 20% since 2017 so his early mark of 24.4% doesn’t seem very sustainable.
When you look at the splits, I don’t see any reason to believe he can continue a 32.1% K rate to RHH. The Orioles should roll out at least four lefties today, so that’s a mark against Arrieta. Three of the righties have a K rate under 17% since the start of 2019. Even with gaping hole Chris Davis in the lineup, I’m betting against Arrieta hitting five or more today.
Bet – Under 4.5
Record – 27-24
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
