Adam Strangis Three StriKes for Sunday August 2
Saturday was about as average a day as you can get for Three StriKes. We went 1-1 with a rainout, so at least it wasn’t a losing day. I can’t quite figure out why Tyler Glasnow doesn’t like me. I mean, I like him but he let me down for the second straight start. It’s funny, the pick I was least confident in was Tyler Chatwood and he destroyed his K prop. Three StriKes for Sunday August 2 is a tougher card to pick so make sure you’re spending your bankroll accordingly and being smart.
StriKe One – Aaron Civale, Indians
Finding reliable strikeout arms isn’t the easiest task today. Civale also doesn’t have the easiest matchup with the Twins but the number is low enough to entice us.
Civale hasn’t been known as a strikeout arm through his limited time in the majors thus far. In 63.2 IP he sits at a 21.7% mark which is respectable but not much more than that. The Twins have the ability to make this pick look silly as they sit inside the top eight in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so far this year against RHP.
The plus side for Ciavle is Minnesota is striking out over 26% on the season despite those gaudy numbers. The Indians righty does a good job of mixing up his pitches, using a cutter about 30% and four other pitches between 10% and 22%. The Twins were the second best team against the cutter last year but in the early going this year, they rank 29th. This is a mixed bag but the low number has me on the over for a talented pitcher.
Bet – Over 4.5
StriKe Two – Dylan Cease, White Sox
It might seem a little counter-productive to target a pitcher with an ERA over 6.00 in about 75 career innings, but this is they type of choice we have this Sunday for Three StriKes.
Cease got beat up in his first start of the year but there’s a big difference between the Indians lineup and the Royals. If we look back to last season, Cease started 14 games and he exceeded this number in eight of them. The K talent is there, it’s just been a question of if he can prevent runs long enough for it to show.
The Royals are a top eight team in K% so far this year at 25.5% and they are bottom 10 in wRC+, wOBA and OPS. Cease uses the fastball about 51% and then the other 49% is a mix of sliders, curves and changeups. This year the Royals are second-best against the fastball but that’s a major shift form 2019 when they ranked 22nd. This is another mixed bag and a reason we should play light, but I do like the over.
Bet – Over 5.5
StriKe Three – James Paxton, Yankees
It tells you what a mediocre slate this is that I was actually considering Jon Lester in this spot. Not only that, it would’ve been the over! Gross. Brian will tell you that I’m basically the Vice President of the Stack Against Lester Every Time Club. However, Paxton’s line is confusing and I believe we can take advantage.
I almost hope it ends this high everywhere because I’m chasing the under for sure. I have a hard time seeing where seven strikeouts come from for Paxton in this spot. For one, he’s pitched one inning so far and it was dreadful. He faced nine hitters and only struck out one hitter. There’s definitely questions about where his arm is even at.
I will absolutely give “Big Maple” credit that when he’s been healthy the past three years, he’s been a strikeout pitcher. Every season he’s had a K rate above 28% so he does have the talent. However, the Red Sox are only striking out at a 17.7% clip so far even without Mookie Betts. Paxton faced Boston four times last year and exceeded this number three times. I just don’t think he’s the same pitcher right now. To make matters tougher, Boston is top 12 against the fastball and curve (Paxton’s two main pitches) and that tracks with the 2019 data as well.
Bet – Under 6.5
Record – 12-9
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
