Matt Vecchio Three StriKes for Sunday 8.16
It was so close to being the perfect card last night. Both Shane Bieber and Kevin Gausman blew their props out of the water but Walker Buehler couldn’t quite come through. We will always take the positive night and it seems that the cover jinx is real, since nobody imploded last night. We’re back in action again for Three StriKes for Sunday 8.16 and there’s some solid numbers for such a mediocre pitching slate. Don’t forget to join DK SportsBook if your state allows it!
StriKe One – Josh Linblom
The number for Lindblom comes in as a heavy favorite but I really don’t mind. He’s yet to not hit that number in three starts and has faced some tough offenses in two of three games.
Typically we like to try and combine a good strikeout spot and run prevention spot. Obviously, our pitchers can’t hit strikeout props if they give up a bunch of runs. The Cubs have a good offense to be sure (top 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA) but they are also sixth in K rate to RHP.
After spending two seasons in the KBO, Lindblom has his strikeout stuff working in a big way. Five projected Cubs hitters have K rates over 22% in this spot. Lindblom likely isn’t going to get by unscathed in this spot but the K upside is too great to not like this small of a number.
Bet – Over 4.5
StriKe Two – Max Scherzer
Mad Max has bit me twice in a row but once was injury and once was just one K short. He owes us and I think he’s coming through today.
There’s little nitpicks for Scherzer but nothing major. The Orioles can put five lefties out there today, which was a concern with the Mets matchup last time. Scherzer’s K rate to LHH is “just” 26.2% compared to 43.9% to RHH. Keep in mind, two of LHH are Chris Davis and Chance Sisco. Both those hitters are over 30% in K rate on their own.
The walk rate for Scherzer will come down and I think that’s just an anomaly through 19.2 IP. If he was coming to the end of the road, there would be other warning signs. For now, I expect Scherzer to be his usually self and will attack the 7.5. It’s an added bonus we get an underdog price.
Bet – Over 7.5
StriKe Three – Elieser Hernandez
I had thoughts of going with Lance McCullers against the Mariners but he has been volatile in the early going. Hernandez doesn’t have a track record per se, but I prefer this number even at worse odds.
Hernandez has hit five strikeouts in both starts so far and boasts a 10.1% swinging strike rate. While the Braves do rate well against his pitch types, we can’t ignore their lineup. It’s missing both Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. The current lineup has four hitters with a K rate over 24% and two over 30%.
Hernandez has only faced 17 lefties on the year but he has a 35.3% K rate to that side of the plate. Even with some regression, that’s still nice against a lineup that has four lefties. The Braves are a weaker lineup than their reputation and this is a solid number to hit.
Bet – Over 4.5
Record – 32-28
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
