Good afternoon everyone! For those not familiar, my name is Dan Wehr and I am a new author here at WinDailyDFS. This article will cover a game by game breakdown for the seven game main slate on Draftkings and Fanduel.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Over/Under: 10.5
Implied Run Total – TOR: 3.91 Runs
Implied Run Total – NYY: 6.63 Runs
Weather Concerns – N/A
Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez (RHP) on the mound tonight for the Jays in New York. He is carrying a 5.49 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 5.43 SIERA on the season. He has identical splits, allowing .354 wOBA, .380 OBP, and .445 SLG on the season. Toronto hitters are slashing .346 wOBA .213 ISO, and 119 WRC+ to left handed pitchers over the last two weeks.
Preferred Plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Eric Sogard, Vlad Guerro Jr., and Randal Grichuk.
New York Yankees – CC Sabathia (LHP) on the mound tonight for the Yankees at home. He is carrying a 4.14 ERA, 5.66 FIP, and 4.29 SIERA on the season. Sabathia has true splits, allowing .379 wOBA, .561 SLG, and .352 OBP against right handed batters. He is also allowing 2.14 HR/9. New York hitters are slashing .380 wOBA, .232 ISO, .366 BABIP, and 138 WRC+ to right handed pitching over the last two weeks, well above their season average.
Preferred Plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, DJ Lemahieu, and Gleyber Torres.
New York Mets @ Philidelphia Phillies
Over/Under: 10
Implied Run Total – NYM: 4.76 Runs
Implied Run Total – PHI: 5.26 Runs
Weather Concerns – Possible late game shower
New York Mets – Steven Matz (LHP) on the mound tonight for the Mets in Philly. Matz is carrying a 4.28 ERA, 5.00 FIP, and 4.37 SIERA on the sesason. Matz has reverse splits, allowing .401 wOBA, .563 SLG, and .397 OBP to left handed batters. He is also allowing 40% hard contact and 1.83 HR/9. Mets batters are slashing .306 wOBA, .182 ISO, .262 BABIP, and .419 SLG. They are hitting close to their season average over their last two weeks.
Preferred Plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Robinson Cano.
Philadelphia Phillies – Zach Eflin (RHP) is on the mound at home tonight. He is sporting a 2.83 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 4.51 SIERA. Eflin is allowing only .221 BABIP on the season. Philly batters are slashing .332 wOBA, .155 ISO, .300 BABIP, and .412 SLG against left handed pitching over the last few weeks, close to their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Zach Eflin, Scott Kingery, Jay Bruce, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and JT Realmuto.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
Over/Under: 10
Implied Run Total – KCR: 4.34 Runs
Implied Run Total – CLE: 5.72 Runs
Weather Concerns – Possible PPD. 55% Precip. 7pm-10pm (EST)
Kansas City Royals – Brad Keller (RHP) on the mound for the Royals in Cleveland. He carries a 4.45 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 5.41 SIERA on the season. Keller has identical splits, allowing .311 wOBA, .343 OBP, and .367 SLG. He has a low HC% and FB% all while only allowing .56 HR/9 this season. Royals batters are slashing .275 wOBA, .115 ISO, and .271 BABIP to right handed pitchers over the last few weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Brad Keller
Cleveland Indians – Adam Plutko (RHP) takes the mound at home. He carries a 4.55 ERA, 6.25 FIP, and 4.69 SIERA on the season. Plutko is allowing .391 wOBA, .655 SLG, and .305 OBP on the year. He is also allowing 2.93 HR/9. Despite the inflated numbers, Plutko does offer strike out upside. Indians batters are slashing .341 wOBA, .212 ISO, and .327 BABIP over the last few weeks. They are hitting above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Adam Plutko, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Over/Under: 9
Implied Run Total – CHW: 3.88
Implied Run Total – BOS: 5.14
Weather Concerns – N/A
Chicago White Sox – Lucas Giolito (RHP) is on the mound in Boston tonight. He is sporting a 2.74 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and 3.62 SIERA on the season. Giolito has excellent splits, allowing .252 wOBA, .267 OBP, and .304 SLG to both hands this season. White Sox batters are slashing .353 wOBA, .192 ISO, and 124 WRC+ over the last two weeks, well above their season avearges.
Preferred Plays: Luery Garcia, Jose Abreu, James McCann, and Eloy Jimenez.
Boston Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) is on the mound at home this evening. He is carrying a 4.71 ERA, 4.00, and 3.98 SIERA on the season. Rodriguez is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing .392 wOBA, .610 SLG, and 7 home runs through 18 innings pitched against left handed batters. Red Sox batters are slashing .392 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 139 WRC+ to right handed pitching over the last two weeks. The Red Sox are hitting well above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Christian Vasquez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr..
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Over/Under: 11.5
Implied Run Total – ATL: 5.45
Implied Run Total – CHC: 6.12
Weather Concerns – N/A
Atlanta Braves – Julio Teheran (RHP) takes the mound at Wrigley this evening. He is sporting a 3.40 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 5.10 SIERA on the season. Teheran has identical splits, carrying .288 wOBA .311 OBP, and .347 SLG to both hands. I consider Teheran a viable pitching option in GPP’s. Braves hitters are slashing a massive .426 wOBA, .271 ISO, .386 BABIP, and 161 WRC+ over the last two weeks. To put it simply, they are on absolute fire.
Preferred Plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna Jr..
Chicago Cubs – Jon Lester (LHP) is on the mound at home tonight. He carries a 4.13 ERA, 4.47 FIP, and 4.16 SIERA on the season. Lester has identical splits, allowing .390 wOBA, .329 OBP, and .464 SLG to both hands. He is also allowing 81% contact on his pitches, 41% of that being hard contact. Cubs batters are slashing ,291 wOBA, .163 ISO, .253 BABIP, and 78 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Kyle Schwarber, Wilson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward.
LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Over/Under: 8
Implied Run Total – LAD: 4.25 Runs
Implied Run Total – ARI: 3.75 Runs
Weather Concerns – Dome
Los Angeles Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (LHP) takes the mound in Arizona tonight. He is sporting a 2.85 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.76 SIERA on the season. Kershaw has identical splits, carrying .282 wOBA, .269 OBP, and .278 BABIP to both hands. Dodgers batters are slashing .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, and .298 BABIP over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Cody Bellinger.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Zack Greinke (RHP) takes the mound at home tonight. He is sporting a 2.91 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.96 SIERA on the season. Greinke has identical splits, allowing .260 wOBA, .249 OBP, and .252 BABIP to both hands. Arizona batters are slashing .339 wOBA, .218 ISO, and .306 BABIP over the last two weeks, They are hitting above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Ildemaro Vargas, and Carson Kelly.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Over/Under: 7.5
Implied Run Total – COL: 3.75
Implied Run total – SFG: 3.75
Weather Concerns – N/A
Colorado Rockies – Jon Gray (RHP) takes the mound tonight in San Francisco. He carries a 4.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA on the year. Gray has identical splits, carrying a .338 wOBA, .339 OBP, and .439 SLG to both hands. Rockies batters are slashing a slate high .427 wOBA, .220 ISO, .438 BABIP, and 138 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They are hitting well above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Jon Gray, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, David Dahl, and Nolan Arenado.
San Francisco Giants – Drew Pomeranz (LHP) is on the mound at home. He carries a 7.09 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA on the year. Pomeranz has true splits as right handed batters are slashing .412 wOBA, .594 SLG, and .396 OBP against him this season. San Francisco batters are slashing .334 wOBA, .182 ISO, and .321 BABIP recently. They are hitting close to their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Brandon Belt and Alex Dickerson
Dwehrj08’s favorite plays
Top Pitchers:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Jon Gray
- Julio Teheran
Top Stacks:
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
Home Run Call: Austin Riley (ATL)
