brucegray19722@gmail.com 
Hello everybody, and welcome to the initial installment of ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.
Course – Country Club of Jackson
7,461 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bermuda
The Country Club of Jackson is a unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel, the layout pays homage to Donald Ross by mimicking his typical quirks throughout the property. That means undulating greens will play a heavy factor at the facility, and it will require golfers to miss shots to the correct part of the fairways and greens to find success. The ability to work the ball both ways should be seen as a benefit, and while the rough should be considered non-existent, the undulation and set up of the course will still require misses to come to the correct side if players want a legitimate chance to score on most holes.
Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. I want to preface my breakdown by saying this course has been difficult for me to figure out in the past because the numerical data doesn’t seem to equal what is being shown on paper. Strokes gained putting and proximity from 100-150 yards continue to jump out like a sore thumb, but I’ve noticed the golfers winning the tournaments every year are some of the worst in those categories during that season.
To highlight that viewpoint a little more, let’s take a deeper look into the past three champions since 2018. As I mentioned, putting has been very impactful in deciding the winner, but Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ all graded outside of the top-100 in putting last year. Conversely, and maybe even more alarming, the two most significant differentials when looking at approach shot distribution here versus tour average have come from 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards. When we break down each golfers’ finish during the year they won the event, the picture gets murky fast. Garcia finished last year 92nd from 100-125 and 144th from 125-150, Munoz was a more respectable 61st and 29th in 2019 and Champ was awful in 2018, ranking 187th and 173rd.
Look, I am the king of telling people not to overreact to limited sample sizes because they often are aberrational results beyond anything else, but the lack of historical production from those two ranges from the winners piqued my curiosity. Yes, the plurality of approaches are coming from 100-150 yards, but what if the most important shots are coming elsewhere? I decided to dive into that a little deeper, and I think I figured out a potential answer.
The last five winners have combined to shoot 97-under par during their wins. That highlights a birdie fest, but it doesn’t tell you where the scoring is coming. It isn’t going to blow anyone’s mind when I say the four par-fives are most impactful to find success, but what if I told you it is so much so that it accounts for 47.5% of the winning output? That’s substantial, right? Well, what if I also told you that another 11.5% is coming from the 15th hole – a hole that plays as a short par-four and is drivable off the tee. That would certainly raise some eyebrows that 59% of the scoring is coming during a five-hole stretch, especially when projections would suggest that the average golfer is only birding them 33.68% of the time, giving us a massive disparity between the winners and those that barely make the cut.
So with that thought in mind, I built a model to highlight those five must-have holes and came up with the following:
- Proximity From 200+ Yards (20%) – This will lead me to my next category, but the real scoring chances seem to be coming for those who can control their long irons.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (25%) – As I mentioned, 47.5% of the winning scores are coming here.
- Short Par-Four Efficiency (7.5%) – That takes the par-four 15th and even a little of the par-four first. I didn’t include that first hole into any of my metrics, but the ability to play shorter par-fours well will be critical.
- Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split of distance over accuracy.
- Overall Birdie or Better (10%) – I want birdie-makers that can get hot.
- Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (10%) – These types of courses are always similar.
- GIR (10%) – You need to hit greens in regulation if you want to provide yourself a chance to make birdie.
High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Will Zalatoris ($10,800) – Pricing looks very solid at the top of the board. I think you could nitpick some of these golfers being a spot higher or lower when it comes to their price tag, but the top four players of Sam Burns ($11,000), Will Zalatoris ($10,800), Sergio Garcia ($10,500) and Sungjae Im ($10,300) are the same top four I have in my model (just a marginally different order). When pricing is spot-on like that, it can be challenging to find an edge, but I like Zalatoris because I think he provides the most complete package for all contests. The American becomes the number one golfer in my model when I remove the Ross attachment from the weight – a stat that is slightly skewy as it is.
Sungjae Im ($10,300) – Sungjae Im is a Bermuda specialist that will get a boost in ownership because of that, but it is worth noting that he has averaged 2.4 shots gained per event with his irons over his last nine starts. Im ranks inside the top-25 of my model in proximity from 200+ yards, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, short par-four efficiency and strokes gained total on Donald Ross tracks, making him another target that is playable in all builds.
Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)
$9,000 Range
Cameron Davis ($9,100) – My favorite play in this section is Cameron Davis at $9,100. Sixth here last year, which isn’t the be-all, end-all for a course that doesn’t have great rollover effect, but his distance and birdie-making prowess shows why he did find success here in 2019 and 2020. Davis is currently under 10 percent owned and is the second-largest differential in my model when comparing my rank versus his ownership projection of a golfer priced $9,000 or above. Only Sergio Garcia has a more significant difference.
Additional Thoughts: Keegan Bradley ($9,700), Cameron Tringale ($9,400), Harold Varner III ($9,200) and Charley Hoffman ($9,000) all feel playable in cash. Mito Periera ($9,900) is the number one player in my upside model, but I think his ownership projection makes him more of a single-entry target than that of an MME-style build.
$8,000 Range
Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) – I keep waiting for Carlos Ortiz’s game to flash again, but two top-fives here since 2018 is a pretty good indicator that he likes this venue. Ortiz has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his previous nine starts and off the tee in his past five. The fact that he has made 10 of the past 12 cuts only adds to the luster, and it feels like a big result might be just around the corner.
Matthew Wolff ($8,500) – Consider Matthew Wolff a GPP-only play, but the potential is there for him to take down an MME for you at roughly 10 percent ownership. His floor might be that of a golfer that comes into the week having missed back-to-back cuts, but his upside is that of a $10,000 golfer. Expect that volatility with what you might receive, but I find the risk to be worth the reward.
Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)
$7,000 Range
Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – If distance and off the tee play is going to matter at the Sanderson Farms, why not Keith Mitchell? Like Sungjae Im, Mitchell is a Bermuda specialist that tends to pop out of nowhere, but he has shown life recently with multiple top-10s in his past four starts.
Taylor Pendrith ($7,800) – We still don’t have enough data to form a concrete opinion, but Taylor Pendrith looks like the real deal from the limited sample that we do have in front of us. The Canadian ranks first in both distance and strokes gained off the tee in this field, and while I do have some concerns about his long irons, the par-five scoring has been brilliant. Pendrith can be deployed a little safer across the board than the other two names in this range.
Luke List ($7,500) – The stats are trending better than the current form looks on paper for Luke List, and it is the same blueprint I am trying to find over and over again. Give me distance, long iron play and the ability to score at the five critical holes.
Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.
$6,000 Range
Grayson Sigg ($6,900) – Grayson Sigg is the eighth-best golfer in my model for this field when it comes to current form over the past 10 weeks. His GIR percentage and long iron play might leave something to be desired, but we are just trying to find potential when we get here, and Sigg has shown that early in his career when it comes to making birdies.
Hudson Swafford ($6,900) –Hudson Swafford is a good Bermuda player that excels off the tee. Burning everyone at the Fortinet has lowered his ownership total, but I like this course better for his upside potential.
Kevin Tway ($6,800) -Five top-30s in his last seven. Seven made cuts in his previous eight. We have seen Kevin Tway excel before on these driver-friendly tests.
John Augenstein ($6,700) – John Augenstein has the amateur pedigree to continue this recent burst of success.
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Dylan Frittelli ($6,600), Andrew Putnam ($6,600), Peter Malnati ($6,500), Tyler McCumber ($6,500), Brandon Hagy ($6,300), Wyndham Clark ($6,400), Anirban Lahiri ($6,200) and Davis Thompson ($6,100). Please note that these are highly volatile options that might possess a higher ceiling but also a lower floor.
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