Patrick Waters 
Welcome to the first installment of The Range. A course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. We kick off the series and the 2020 PGA Tour with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
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The Basics
Course: Kapalua’s Plantation Course
Par: 73
Length: 7,596 Yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Fairways: Wide, Celebration Bermuda
Architect: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA website here.
Course Breakdown
The Sentry Tournament of Champions, as always, is being played at Kapalua’s Plantation Course in Hawaii. Unlike most years though, the course has gone through a renovation that began shortly after last year’s TOC. Architects Coore and Crenshaw wanted to get back to the course’s roots, with firm fairways and fast greens. A nine-month endeavor to achieve these goals came to fruition as they reopened in November. The field will consist of previous winners from 2019, this year, 34 golfers enter the week.
Even with the renovation, the winning score should be in the mid-twenties or higher. With this in mind, let’s look at the top 10 in Strokes Gained Total over the last 24 rounds with easy scoring conditions.
One of the main reasons for the easy scoring and low rounds is the width of the fairways. The fairways at the Sentry Tournament of Champions are some of the widest on tour. Here are the top 10 golfers that excel with fairways wide enough to land an airplane on.
Once the golfers have landed on the greens at the TOC, they’ll have to putt on what should be fast TifEagle Bermuda. The greens have been restructured to allow better pin locations and to maintain firm surfaces. A condition this course has been lacking in previous years. These 10 golfers have excelled on Bermuda in the past 24 rounds.
The only two golfers to appear on all three lists are Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. Not surprising though as they are both DraftKings highest priced and Vegas’ top odds on winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Player Fit – Back End Stats
Here is the scorecard for this week’s tournament at the TOC.
The two toughest holes are both Par 4’s that are over 500 yards. I want to look at golfers who do well with that distance, to avoid bogies or worse. On the flip side, three of the easiest holes are Par 5’s between the range of 500 – 550 yards. This is where a majority of the scoring will occur. Golfers who can eagle those holes and have a high percentage to birdie will be to keep pace with the field.
With the way the new fairways should roll out, golfers who have a solid to good short/wedge game should succeed at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Proximity within 125 yards should be the target range.
If you were a follower of mine last year, you’ll know that when models are being created, one of the first stats added is Opportunity Gained. It describes when a golfer is within 15 feet for a birdie opportunity. Essentially it illustrates golfers that put themselves in good positions to score. To go along with Opps Gained is Birdie or Better (BOB). This shows golfers that come away with a birdie or better compared to the field and in a presumed scoring fest this stat should be a necessity.
Illustrated below are the top 10 golfers, when each of the stats listed above have been evenly weighted over the last 24 rounds.
While it might be popular, the pairing of Thomas and Cantlay might be the way to go at the TOC.
Final Recap of the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Though this is the first tournament of the year, it’s highly irregular. First, there are only 34 golfers in the field and there is no cut. With such a short field, anyone can win and ownership will be higher on almost everyone. Sit back and enjoy the start of the new season. The Sony Open will have a full field and the feeling of a true sweat come Friday evening.
Course Setup
Easy Scoring
Easy to hit fairways
Fast Bermuda greens
Player Efficiencies
Par 4 500+ yards
Par 5 500 – 550 yards
Proximity 125 and under
Opportunity Gained / Birdie or Better
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
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Stats source: FantasyNational
