This week we’ll look back at Wyndham Championship and get you ready for the upcoming Northern Trust right here on Win Daily Sports.
Recap of the Wyndham Championship
Unfortunately I was unable to watch the final round but what a win by JT Poston. To shoot up the scoreboard passing Byeong An for the lead and hold off the course horse in Simpson is an incredible victory.
While the Insight Sheet missed on Poston, it had a very nice run. Here is the model’s Top 10.
My personal player pool had 16 golfers, 14 made the cut (88%) and zero got caught in the MDF. It had two Top 15 and three Top 10 including Simpson. It also had sub five percent owned golfers in Henley, Svensson and Ortiz. Too much Matsuyama and Danielson, though, for any real return in DFS.
Let’s move on to the Northern Trust and the first week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs!
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The Basics
Course: Liberty National GC
Par: 71
Length: 7,370 Yards
Greens: Bent
Fairways: Easier to hit than tour average (Placement of the drive will be key though on several holes)
Architect: Tom Kite / Bob Cupp
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA website here!
Course Breakdown
The Northern Trust is held at the Liberty National Golf Course this year. The last time this course was played was in 2017 for the Presidents Cup. For the FedEx Cup it was in 2013 and again in 2009 (The Barclays). There have been changes between 2009 and 2013 but the winning score was -10 on average. A drastic change from this past weeks Wyndham Championship.
Lets start by looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring settings.
While some sites might say that the fairways are hard to hit, I will argue that they’re relatively easy. This course should suit all golfers, but they will be either clubbing down often or over powering the holes. This will lead to “easy” to hit fairways. The real challenge will be the ball placement off the tee. Here are the golfers that score well on courses with easy to hit fairways.
The tour comes back to Bent greens this week, after playing on Bermuda for a while. The greens should be expected to play fast at the Northern Trust. Lets look at the golfers who not only play well on Bent greens, but ones that do so when the stimp meter rises.
Out of all three of these course condition charts, only Johnson and Rose appear in each. Should be of note that Rose is ranked 94th in the field in strokes gained putting for bent/fast greens. It also demonstrates how strong the rest of his game has been in the past.
Course History (Tournament History) / Recent Form
Despite the Northern Trust only being played at Liberty National a couple of times in the last decade, we can look at how players perform in this tournament itself. Here are the Top 10 golfers over the last five years who have played well at the Northern Trust / The Barclays.
Jason Day stands out among the pack as being a tournament horse with four Top 5s and a win to his name.
Recent form is always a key part to the research process. Here are the Top 10 golfers over the last six weeks.
Patrick Reed and Tony Finau are the only two golfers inside the Top 10 to show up twice. Reed and Finau both have good tournament history for the Northern Trust and recent form coming in.
Player Fit – Back End Stats
Here is the scorecard for Liberty National GC and how each hole plays to par.
Looking over the scorecard, Liberty National doesn’t have a lot of any one type of hole. Out of the Par 4s, the 450 – 500 yard range has the most at five holes. The three Par 5s each show up in a different range. For this reason I’ll use Par 5 scoring overall. Opportunity Gained will always be used and this week is no different. To round out the model I’ll be looking to add scrambling, as many holes look to be a tough up and down for par.
Final Recap for the Northern Trust
The tour is down to the final three weeks of the main season. These fields arguably will consist of the top golfers in the world and to make things more interesting, no MDF. You’ll want to look at golfers who perform well with tough fields and ones that can mentally bounce back from a bad hole. As of this writing I like Justin Rose.
Course Setup
Average to difficult to score
Easy to hit fairways
Fast/Bent Greens
Player Efficiencies
Opportunities gained
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Scrambling
Par 5 scoring
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, Key Stats and analysis on my personal player pool.
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Stats source: FantasyNational
