Patrick Waters The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Florida as the players face off in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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The Basics
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Par: 72
Length: 7,454 yards
Fairways: Celebration Bermuda overseeded w/ ryegrass
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda; Stimpmeter 12ft (Fast); 7,500 sqft on average (large)
Architect: Dick Wilson (Re-design Arnold Palmer)
Past five winners: ’19 Molinari (-12), ’18 McIlroy (-18), ’17 Leishman (-11), ’16 Day (-17) & ’15 Every (-19 (B2B))
For a hole by hole breakdown, please visit the PGA Tour website here.
Course Introduction
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is held at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. The event started back in 1979 but it wasn’t until 2007 until it was renamed to the API.
While the greens are faster it’s the scoring that should really heat up. After last weeks’ winner (Sungjae Im) carding a -6 to win, the average winning score is -15 at Bay Hill. As of this writing, the wind seems to be calm for Thursday and Friday with Thursday being warmer of the two days. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is just that, an invite, as the field is only 120 players this week.
Course Breakdown
With the average winning score in the last five years at -15, birdies will be plentiful. This week we’ll want to look at golfers who can perform well in easy scoring conditions. Here are the top golfers that have excelled in easier courses.
The rough will belong this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Like most weeks will be going back to ball striking. Being accurate off the tee will be more important here then most weeks. Let’s look at the top 10 golfers over the last 24 rounds.
The greens are larger than the tour average placing GIR farther down the list of importance. The greens are Bermuda and very quick with a rating of 12 on the stimpmeter though. Looking at golfers that not only perform well putting but can elevate their game on fast Bermuda greens will be important. Below are the top ten golfers putting over the last 24 rounds.
Here are the top 10 when we combine all three of the course conditions together.
Player Fit
As you can see above, for the API three of the top six toughest holes are Par 4s between 450 – 500 yards. Look at golfers who have performed well in this range in the past. On the flip side some of the easiest holes land between 550 – 600 yards for the Par 5s.
Between all four Par 3s and the long Par 5s, most of the approach shots come from 200 yards and greater. Golfers who have excelled in this range for proximity should be ones to target for your lineups.
Opportunities gained show up again along with Birdie or Better and Bogey Avoidance for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Here are the top golfers when all the stats are combined over the last 24 rounds.
Final Recap of the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Like last week, let’s keep an eye on the weather. Right now it looks okay for the first couple of days but that can change quickly. While the winning score has been around 15 under over the last five years, the cut line has averaged around plus two. To me, this seems like there will be plenty of birdie opportunities but also a lot of big numbers out on the course as well.
Course Setup
Easy scoring
Average to hit fairways but with long rough
Fast Bermuda greens
Player Efficiencies
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 yards
Proximity: 200+ yards
Opportunities Gained
BOB
Bogey Avoidance
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National
