DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The PGA Tour’s flagship event. Call it what you will, it is known by both the PGA professionals and fans alike that this tournament matters a little more than most. Perhaps due to the list of winners, perhaps due to the iconic TPC Sawgrass course, and perhaps due to the dramatic finishes we have come to know and love from this event. Those dramatic finishes and volatility that comes here help guide our Players picks this year.
It what was another great week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where we scored a huge hit with winning ticket on Kurt Kitayama at +6000. We added Kitayama live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. His overall metrics were good. The telling factor was, having followed his game closely since 2018, that Kitayama has massive boom or bust potential. When he gets in contention, he doesn’t shy away from competition and tends to stick around despite the names surrounding him. We saw this when 2nd to Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd to McIlroy at the CJ Cup, and 2nd to Schauffele at the Scottish Open. Where others shy away, Kitayama has shown he can hang around with the best. We also secured a full place payout on Tyrrell Hatton. He also had his winning chances, as did Schauffele who faded over the weekend.
Finally, before we get into our Players picks, in the alternate event we had 6/6 make the cut at the Puerto Rico Open with 5/6 ending up 33rd or better. 80/1 shot John VanDerLaan the brightest of those to finish 7th cashing both Top 10 and Top 20 tickets. A correct weather prediction in 2022 saw us score big on 225/1 shot Russell Knox securing a full place payout. All promising signs for our Players picks in 2023.
Weather is a factor for your Players picks
Will weather be a factor in 2023 for our Players picks? Last year, we were one of few in the industry to get the weather right. Where all others predicted a Thursday PM/Friday AM, we were contrarian and recommend the opposite. Reasoning was that Thursday PM was likely to face substantial delays due to thunderstorms in the area. This would lead to the perceived weather edge flipping. This indeed happened, and we found ourselves on the right side of a huge weather edge of more than +3 strokes on average.
Although the weather does not appear to be as significant as in 2022, there does seem to be a potential advantage developing. Thursday AM looks to have marginally higher winds than Thursday PM, which are forecast to drop throughout the afternoon. Friday PM winds do look to be increasing on current forecasting models. Gusts Friday PM now look forecast to consistently hit over 30mph.
This will not be the same weather edge we experienced last year. However, it should form part of your process making your Players picks. It should absolutely be used as a tiebreaker if deciding between two specific players. We currently predict the edge to fall around the 0.5-0.75 strokes range given current weather predictions.
Latest weather forecast click here
Key Course Stats and Comp Courses
Course Analysis for our Players Picks
TPC Sawgrass provides a stern test and, perhaps the reason the tournament holds such allure, is that it serves as a great leveler. The key statistic I keep coming back to his driving accuracy. This has been a great predictor of success on this course in years past. It is also worthy noting that the rough has been grown out another full extra inch in 2023. With rough at 3.5in, finding the rough will be even more important this week.
The penalty of rough plays one part and so does the large amount of water in play here. Water features of 17 out of 18 holes. TPC Sawgrass ranks as 7th on tour for most penalty strokes incurred. Missed fairway percentage sits at 13th most on tour. As such, this is one of the most volatile stops on the PGA Tour calendar so do note this when interpreting our Players picks.
Dispersion of approach shots also bears interest. This is the 5th most difficult course for approach shots under 150 yards. Specifically, the 50-125 yard bracket sees a disproportionate number of shots. On the other end of the scale, there are a larger number of shots over 225 yards. This is a combination of going for par 5s in two, but also golfers clubbing down off the tee to gain accuracy and avoid penalties. It is the latter which is why driving distance seems to be an advantage here. For our Players picks, personally would rather delve into the actual meaningful statistics which are the approach metrics from those key distances.
Comp Courses for our Players Picks
Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club is the key correlated course this week for your Players picks. Si Woo Kim has won at both including an additional 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for good measure. Additionally, Webb Simpson and Henrik Stenson have won at both. This, though, extends to more than tournament winners. Anirban Lahiri followed his 2nd at The Players with 8th at the Wyndham. Then there is Adam Scott who has 5 Top 15s at The Players and a 2nd around Sedgefield. The list goes on ad infinitum.
Other guides are Harbour Town: another Pete Dye designed short, positional course with premium on accuracy and approach. Then, you have the similar TPC tracks to consider. Most notably TPC Potomac along with TPC River Highlands and TPC Twin Cities. The Valspar Championship also shows parallels. It benefits both from similarly requiring accuracy off the tee and rewarding approach, btu also sharing very similar putting surfaces.
The aforementioned volatility shapes my Players picks. The three winners from 2019-2022 (2020 cancelled due to COVID) have been studs: Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. That could so easily read: Anirban Lahiri, Lee Westwood, and a 50 year old Jim Furyk. There are opportunities to be had here if you can find the right combinations. Hence, the lopsided selections towards value at longer odds this week.
2023 The Players Picks
Suggested Staking
Note several of the below players were provided early in WinDaily Discord to obtain the best odds for our customers. Unfortunately, several of these have now ended up on the wrong side of the developing weather draw. Tee-times are noted accordingly.
Tom Kim (AM/PM)
2pts WIN +4100 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +360 DK
or 2pts E/W +4500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
Chris Kirk (PM/AM) – Our Players Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +8000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Draftkings or +700 Bet365
or 2pts E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Tom Hoge (PM/AM)
1pt WIN +13000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Fanduel or +1100 William Hill/Unibet
or 1pt E/W +12500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel or +400 Unibet
Russell Henley (AM/PM)
0.5pt WIN +11000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +750 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel
Davis Riley (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +18000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel or +650 Unibet
3pts Top 40 +350 MGM
Webb Simpson (AM/PM) – Our Players Picks Best Value
0.5pt WIN +15000 MGM
0.5pt Top 10 +1000 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +25000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 +250 Fanduel
J.T. Poston (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +22000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 MGM
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 J.T. Poston +240 Fanduel or +300 Bet365
David Lipsky (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +45000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +2200 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +40000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +850 Draftkings
3pts Top 40 +250 Draftkings
Thank you reading our 2023 The Players picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
