Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We have an action-packed Thursday as there are a total of 9 games on the schedule. For the DFS slate, the main card is at night with five games to choose from. And while you hear there’s this NFL thing going on tonight (which I’ll be fully immersed in on Discord and for betting), this is a great chance to build a bankroll with MLB. That’s because we may see some novices, and people not attached to baseball, that play a few lineups. So that will be a perfect opportunity for us to use our community knowledge to build winners and turn our screens green.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MINNESOTA TWINS -155 at TAMPA BAY RAYS (1:10PM EST)
POSTED ON DISCORD at 1250pm: This one brings us a tale of two pitchers, and similarly teams, headed in opposite directions. For the Rays, they are giving the ball to SP Taj Bradley. And by the looks of his performance in August, he’s struggling pitching this late into the MLB season. The second-year pitcher has set a career high in innings pitched, reaching 109.2, in 2024. So one can understand why his recent struggles are occurring. Bradley posted a 10.14 ERA in August with an 0-4 record. More alarming has been the 37 hits allowed in 23.1 innings, resulting in a 0.366 opponent’s BA.
On the other side is Twins SP Pablo Lopez. The right-hander has not allowed an ER in his last three starts. And his numbers in August are impressive by posting a 3-1 record and 1.71 ERA. This aligned well with his 2023 performance as August was also his best month and followed that up with a solid September.
While the Twins aren’t necessarily playing their best baseball, 3-7 in last 10, they have more to play for than Tampa. Minnesota is only 4.5 games behind the Guardians and are tied with Kansas City for the 5th seed in the AL (i.e. 2nd wild card). So I expect the Twins to dial in today and try to get out of Tampa with a split as they head to KC for a huge weekend series with the Royals. Plus, the pitching delta, and better offense, resides in the Minnesota dugout.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
If you’re playing the early slate, my favorite pitchers are:
- HUNTER BROWN ($8700 DK)
- PABLO LOPEZ ($8500 DK)
- BRYAN WOO ($8100 DK)
As for stacks, look at MINNESOTA and SEATTLE. We highlighted Taj Bradley’s struggles above. His 10.17 ERA in last 5 starts seems like a great place to attack. Add to that he’s allowed 6 home runs in that stretch. And Seattle is coming off a 16-run game against Oakland yesterday, so they’ll look to keep the bats hot. In particular, Luis Urias and Victor Robles had big games that helped people win money last night.
Top Pitchers to Target:
REYNALDO LOPEZ ($9900 DK):
Since returning from the IL, Lopez has been even better than his previous self. In those three games, he’s allowed just 3 ER’s and posted a 1.58 ERA and racking up 23 K’s in 17 innings. And the good news is he’s averaged 93.5 pitches in those outings so he should have no restrictions for today’s game against Colorado. We’ve highlighted the Rockies struggles away from Coors Field in prior articles. But to reiterate here, they are two different teams on the season. On the road they have a team batting average of 0.219 which is last in baseball. Yes, it’s worse than the White Sox. Their OBP, OPS, wRC+, and wOBA all rank 29th. More importantly, their 28.7% K rate is the highest.
It’ll be a big ownership number for Lopez, but on a small slate it’s one that has the highest potential and one I’m willing to ride.
CODY BRADFORD ($7900 DK)
I’ll dip down to Bradford as my preferred pairing with Lopez tonight. Yes the Angels put up 10 runs last night against the Dodgers. But prior to that, they had not scored more than 5 runs in a game for 2 weeks. And in those two weeks they have a team batting average of 0.189, worst in baseball. Bradford has intrigue based on his recent play plus his season long K rate of 23.7%. The latter is good for 3rd best on the slate with the other two pitchers with a better number being ~$2K more in salary. His 3.21 ERA matches well with his 3.44 FIP showing he’s pitching to his performance level. And he’s thrown 4 straight quality starts including one in his last outing when he racked up 25.4 DK points against Oakland.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: RANGER SUAREZ ($9700 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
JACK KOCHANOWICZ ($5900 DK)
We’ll go dumpster diving for our value play. But it’s at least backed by some numbers that give us hope. First off, Kochanowicz isn’t striking anyone out as shown by his pathetic 8.8% K rate. He has a total of 12 K’s in 32.1 innings. So we’re not going to see a ceiling much higher than 3x his value (~18 DK points). However, there are other factors to consider here that could get him to that ceiling. First is he’s thrown at least 6 innings in four straight starts, and all were quality starts. In that stretch he has a 2.45 ERA. Next potential good sign is his opponent. The Texas Rangers, while playing better of late, have really struggled at the plate, In the last two weeks they’ve scored just 23 runs which is good for 23rd most in baseball. And that’s due to a major power outage as they have just 9 homers in that stretch, placing them 28th in the MLB.
Jack Kochanowicz should keep that last number low as he yields just 23.9% fly ball rate, lowest on the slate today. He’s a heavy ground ball pitcher which the Rangers can conform too with the 11th highest team ground ball rate.
HONORABLE MENTION: N/A
Top Stacks to Target:
PHILLIES:
The Phillies are back to their winning ways posting a 9-3 record over the past 2 weeks. And while the pitching has been good, it’s been the return of the offense that has helped build the Phillies a safe lead in the NL East. In those 12 games, Philadelphia is batting 0.283 (3rd in MLB) and have the 3rd best OBP and OPS. One of the players that has shown great improvements is Brandon Marsh who is batting 0.378 with 14 hits in his last 11 games. And his WET BANDITS partner, Bryson Stott, is also picking it up late in the season with a 0.308 BA in his past 12 games. I’ll look to get those LH bats into my stacks tonight against SP Adam Oller who has pitched well of late but has many signs pointing to negative regression. The first is his 0.179 BABIP which is over 100 points lower than league average. The next is his 5.11 xFIP which is almost 2 runs higher than his 3.31 ERA.
Also look to pair the red-hot Kyle Schwarber (3 home runs last 2 games) and Trea Turner into some top of the order stacks with the Phillies. Depending on the lineup, due to injuries to Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm, a cheap option to consider will be Kody Clemens as he is coming off two good games in Toronto where he went 2 for 6 with 3 RBI’s and a homer.
Other Stacks to Consider: PADRES, BRAVES
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