Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We have 10 days left in the baseball season and the playoff picture is becoming more clear. The Brewers clinched the NL Central yesterday, becoming the first team to clinch a division title. But the Phillies, Yankees, Guardians and Astros aren’t far behind and we could those teams crowned as early as this weekend. The primary races are in the Wild Card where Detroit has climbed to within a half game of the Twins for the final spot in the AL. And the Braves find themselves 2 games behind of a playoff spot in the NL, but have a three-game series with the Mets still on tap.
We will focus on the night slate for DFS as that has 6 games while afternoon has just 3.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BALTIMORE ORIOLES +150 vs SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The fall of the Baltimore Orioles has been one of the bigger stories in baseball this past month. In September alone they’ve won just one series, against the White Sox, and have a 5-9 record. But this dates back even further as they are just 26-39 since mid July.
The division now seems out of reach as they trail the Yankees by 5 games. But they still have this final stretch to get things in order and get hot for the playoffs. Afterall, that was what the Rangers did last season after struggling in early and mid September. The primary reason for this bet is SP Zach Eflin who has been great for the O’s since being traded at the deadline. In seven starts, he has a 2.21 ERA and 4-2 record. It’s noteworthy that in the two losses, the O’s have scored a combined 1 run for Eflin. As for the Giants SP, Logan Webb had a great August but has hit hard times in September posting a 6.65 ERA this month. He has four straight starts with at least 3 ER’s allowed and he’s given up four homers in that stretch (only gave up 7 homers in his previous 27 starts). So it looks like he’s fading down the stretch of a long season and the O’s should be able to score enough runs today while Eflin holds the Giants down.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
PROP #1
To be posted later.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:50 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:50pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 6.
If you’re playing the early slate, my favorite pitchers are:
- CHRIS SALE ($10900 DK)
- ZACH EFLIN ($8700 DK)
- KUMAR ROCKER ($7800 DK)
As for stacks, look at ATLANTA and MINNESOTA (must win game for Twins)!
Top Pitchers to Target:
YUSEI KIKUCHI ($9900 DK):
Seattle’s SP has been very good at home this year with a 6-3 record and 2.03 ERA. Opponents are batting just 0.180 off Miller at home and he has a K rate of 10.3 from the mound at Safeco. So we always look to take Miller when at home, but there’s more to that. Since the start of June, Miller has a 5-1 record and 2.10 ERA and seven quality starts regardless of where he pitches.
KUMAR ROCKER ($8500 DK)
Kikuchi has been a great add for the Astros as he is 5-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his eight starts with Houston. In fact, the Astros have won all eight games that the LHP has started for them. And I don’t see that changing today as teh Astros take on the Angels and are a -310 favorite on the ML. So that already adds to the point potential for Kikuchi as his team has implied winning odds of over 80% (meaning likely 4 extra points on DK for the win).
The Angels are not finishing the 2024 season strong as they are 29th in batting average this month. Their lineup only consists of 1 or 2 hitters over $4K in salary (SS Zach Neto and OF Taylor Ward). So it’s one Kikuchi can attack and rack up K’s. As the Angels have the 2nd highest K rate this month at 27%.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: LUIS SEVERINO ($9000 DK) – The Phillies have struck out 32 times in the past 2 games
Value Pitchers to Target:
ZACK LITTELL ($7400 DK)
Ray SP Ryan Pepiot had a great game last night against Boston. He pitched 6 innings and struck out 12 batters enroute to a 34.3 DK point game. While the Red Sox won the game against the Rays bullpen, their offense is also in a rut which has propelled them out of the playoff race. In the past 11 days, which is the start of last week, the Red Sox have a 29.8% K rate which leads all of baseball. As for Littell, since early August he has a 2.05 ERA. In five of those six starts, he’s allowed 1 ER or less.
HONORABLE MENTION: N/A
Top Stacks to Target:
CUBS:
It’s a windy night in Chicago and Patrick Corbin is on the mound. You know what to do here. The Cubs are batting 0.295 and have 13 homers in their last 10 games. I’ll look to get Michael Bush (4 homers) and Cody Bellinger (3 homers) in my lineups. We’ll also look at Nico Hoerner (0.415 in last 10 days) and Isaac Paredes (0.379 in last 10 days) as cores to our stacks. Pete-Crow Armstrong is always a nice cheap option as brings an element of speed to the slate that can help boost him numbers against a pitcher like Corbin.
Other Stacks to Consider: ASTROS
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