Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Sweet Spot at Win Daily Sports. We went 2-1 with our MLB bets yesterday raising our weekly record to 5-2 overall. We’ll look to keep that going on a transition day in the MLB as we have a few series finishing up as well as a few new ones starting. DFS has been good of late as we’ve been spot on with our SP’s and stacks (Dylan Cease yesterday came up huge).
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
CINCINATTI REDS -135 vs ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
The Reds are reeling as they have lost 7 games in a row. They look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the D’backs today when the face off against Arizona at 1:10pm. But they seem to have a decided advantage at SP today as Hunter Greene takes the mound against Slade Cecconi. The D’backs are just 1-2 in Cecconi’s starts and have mustered just 5 total runs for him in those 3 games. He also boasts a 4.96 ERA and has been helped out by an insanely low BABIP of 0.187.
Greene, on the other hand, has started to turn it around of late. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts which spanned over 12.2 innings. Those were against quality opponents such as the Orioles and Rangers. Add to that the fact that Arizona is just 6-12 ATS as an underdog this year. I’ll back the faves in Cincy to break their losing streak and salvage a game in this series.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS -135 at MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The Cardinals have been a disappointment this season as they are sitting in last place of the NL Central. They made several moves to improve their starting pitching in the offseason, but only one has truly paid off. And that’s the man taking the mound for them today in Milwaukee, Sonny Gray. The prized FA acquisition has not disappointed as Gray has a 0.89 ERA in 5 starts. Better yet, the Cards are 4-1 in his starts, but just 11-20 when he doesn’t. Another factor in their favor is that St Louis is 4-1 as a road favorite this year.
On the flip side, Milwaukee has been much better on the road. They are 14-8 away from home but just 7-7 in American Family Field. They’re also 0-3 in SP Tobias Myers starts as he has an ERA of 6.23.
DOG OF THE DAY: HOUSTON ASTROS +120 at NEW YORK YANKEES
The Astros have lost the first two games of their current series with the New York Yankees. That brings their record against the Bronx Bombers to 0-6 on the season. Today is their last chance to salvage a game against New York as they don’t play the Yankees again the rest of this season. And they likely have their best shot today as they roll out SP Ronel Blanco. Blanco, owner of MLB’s only no-hitter this season, has been fantastic. He’s 3-0 with a 2.09 ERA and has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his six starts. The Astros are also 5-1 when Blanco pitches with their only loss in extras to the Nats.
The Yankees have been very good at home, posting a 13-5 record. They’re looking to close this short homestand at 6-0. But their SP Marcus Stroman hasn’t been sharp of late, issuing 10 walks in his past two starts. His 3.41 ERA is met with a 4.81 FIP showing negative regression ahead. I’ll take a shot with the Astros today to salvage one win in their season series against NYY.
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 7:40PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 3.
Top Pitchers to Target:
SONNY GRAY ($10,800 DK):
At this point, with the Majors best ERA at 0.89, Gray is pretty much in play on any given start. But even more so today as this slate only has 3 games. You must hit on the top 1-2 arms in order to cash. So we’ll back the best SP on the card as his 2024 form is great. Additionally, Milwaukee is batting just 0.231 in the month of May which is good for 18th in the MLB. And their K rate is higher than normal in May, 24.3% vs 23.3% on the season.
ERIC FEDDE ($8500 DK):
Eric Fedde was a hot commodity for the first 5 weeks of the season. But then he got roughed up in his last outing against St Louis and his value became somewhat diminished. However, I like his chances of starting up another hot streak tonight at home against Cleveland. While the Guardians do lead the AL Central, their bats have been cold in the month of May. They are batting a collective 0.209 this month, good for 25th best in baseball.
Value Pitchers to Target:
MICHAEL WACHA ($7100 DK)
Of all pitchers on the bump tonight, Wacha has the largest gap of ERA to FIP. His current numbers show a 5.50 ERA but his Fielding Independent Pitching value is almost 2 runs lower at 3.85. He also has a SIERA of 4.18 showing future projections of better performances ahead. Tonight he faces the Angels who are batting 0.239 against RHP’s on the season and are just 4-11 at home this season.
Top Stacks to Target:
CARDINALS:
Brewers SP Tobias Myers has the highest ERA on the slate tonight. While the Cards bats have been hot and cold this month, they have some batters seeing the ball well of late. Look towards a stack around the middle of the lineup and Nolan Arenado who has a 0.364 BA in May. Other bats I’ll look at are Nootbar, Burleson, and Donovan. If they start Fermin, he could be consider as a cheap option.
ROYALS:
It is crazy to attack the 2nd highest priced pitcher on the board. But that’s what I’m going to do tonight against Angels SP Reid Detmers. My main reason is because of the Royals bats have hit well of late ranking in the top 10 in ISO, wOBA, wRC+ and BA in the month of May. I’ll look towards the top and try to squeeze in Garcia, Witt, Perez and Pasquantino.
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