Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Triple Play Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. Today’s article will feature the night slate for DFS as that has more games to choose from (4) than the day slate (3). But I will be posting day bets on Discord as those will be listed by 1245pm for your betting pleasure.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -120 at NEW YORK METS (7:10pm EST)
I don’t believe a player’s only meeting can save the Mets. If you read the reports out of New York yesterday, the players aired out their issues after another tough loss. That particular loss moved NY to 11 games below 0.500 and 16 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. To add more insult to the pile of losses was the injury to Pete Alonso who is listed as day-to-day after being hit on the hand.
Arizona is sending their ace, SP Zac Gallen, to the mound tonight. He’s had his best month of the year so far in May, with four quality starts and a 2.81 ERA. The Mets are handing the ball to RHP Christian Scott who has pitched decent, but the Mets have lost all four of his games this year. They scored 1 run or less in three of those starts.
While the Mets may turn it around soon, I won’t believe it until I see it on the field. Without Alonso the lineup loses it’s best bat and that may be too much to ask against a quality arm like Gallen.
DETROIT TIGERS +100 at BOSTON RED SOX
The Red Sox and Tigers open a four-game set tonight in Boston. Detroit is just 10-15 this month as has won just 2 series total (vs Toronto and Arizona). After a solid opening month, they now find themselves in 4th place in the AL Central. The Red Sox have managed to stay afloat in the AL East and have the 5th highest run differential in the American League. And their bats have been hot of late, hitting 17 home runs since May 15th which is good for 3rd in the MLB.
The primary reason I’m backing the Tigers tonight is because of SP Nick Pivetta’s recent struggles and a curious trend that I’m tracking. First, Pivetta has a 6.16 ERA this month and has just one quality start on his season. The Tigers SP Jack Flaherty has pitched very well, including a stretch of five straight quality starts. His 3.84 ERA has a 2.98 FIP 2.03 xFIP. Then there’s the Red Sox home record after a road trip. Boston is 0-4 in their first home game following a road trip this season. They’ve shown some jetlag and inability to adjust. So stack it all up and I’m backing the road dogs tonight at Fenway.
DOG OF THE DAY: HOUSTON ASTROS +110 at SEATTLE MARINERS (4:10pm EST)
The Astros are looking to salvage a game in their series with the Mariners. Houston, who came into this series winners in 12 of their last 18, have lost the first 3 games in their series with Seattle by a combined score of 9 to 5. The bats are asleep in Seattle and will look to wake up when they see Mariners SP Logan Gilbert.
And the main reason I’m backing the Astros is their batter’s history against Gilbert. At the top, Altuve, Alvarez and Bregman combine for a 0.327 batting average and 5 homers in 77 career at-bats against the Mariners SP. Gilbert did pitch 8 shutout innings against Houston earlier this season, but I expect the Astros to reverse that outing and have a concerted and focused approach at the plate.
As for the Astros pitching, SP Spencer Arrighetti has the highest ERA to FIP differential on the board today. His 6.93 ERA is met with a 3.90 FIP, a greater than 3 run difference. This is due to a league high BABIP of 0.394. And it’s likely a primary reason that Houston is sticking with their young arm as positive regression is headed his way.
Add to that, the Mariners have had three opportunities for sweeps this year and have come away with just one series sweep. Even though they are struggling of late, there’s value in the dogs today in Seattle.
PLAYER PROPS
JACK FLAHERTY over 6.5 K’s (-135 BET365)
Flaherty has a 33.3% K rate and 11.95 K/9 inning line so far this season. And he gets to face a team with the third highest K rate in baseball? Sign me up. And make that two of us at Win Daily as Jason Mezrahi also posted this bet as one of his own on our daily bet tracker.
LUIS RENGIFO over 1.5 bases (+115 DK)
Here’s a nice plus money prop to back tonight. Luis Rengifo is 0.381 in his past 10 games. Of his 16 hits in those 10 games, five have gone for extra bases. But what stands out the most to me is his splits against LHP’s this year. He is 17 for 33 which is good for a 0.515 batting average against southpaws. And he has a HR in his only at-bat against Yankees SP Carlos Rodon.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 7:10PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 4.
Top Pitchers to Target:
ZAC GALLEN ($9500 DK):
The Mets are likely without 1B Pete Alonso tonight which depletes an already feeble lineup. Over the past week, the Mets are batting just 0.191 which is 2nd worst in baseball. And they are striking out at a 28.4% clip which is the 2nd highest. They’re a team that’s down and one I’m willing to attack tonight with one of the better arms in the NL.
JACK FLAHERTY ($8700 DK):
The Tigers SP has been red hot with five straight quality starts to his name. His ERA is 2.84 over that stretch and he has 45 K’s in 31.2 innings of work. As for his fantasy stats, he’s averaged 25.2 points during this five game stretch. He gets the Red Sox who are often favorable to strike out pitchers. This is as good a matchup on paper that we have tonight for DFS.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL:
Value Pitchers to Target:
PATRICK SANDOVAL ($6000 DK)
The Yankees are a tough team to suggest an SP against as they rank in the top 4 of all major hitting categories on the season (batting average, OPS, Slugging, ISO, etc). But Patrick Sandoval has some success against the big bats in the Yankees lineup. Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are a combined 1 for 15 off the Angels SP. Sandoval can be hot or cold, and considering some of his stats against NY, this could be one of those hot nights with a very low ownership projection. Good for GPP’s only.
HONORABLE MENTION: N/A
Top Stacks to Target:
NATIONALS:
The Nats bats have 15 runs in their first three games of their series against the Braves. And those 15 runs came in two games, as they were shutout by Max Fried in Game 2. Understanding the quality of Atlanta pitching tonight, I like the Nationals to put up some runs against against the Braves. I’ll look at the likes of CJ Abrams (4 hits in series), Lane Thomas (5 hits in series), and Keibert Ruiz (4 hits in series). Other notable bats will be former Brave Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker and Joey Menesses.
ANGELS:
The Angels/Yankees game has the highest projected total (along with Nats/Braves) at 8.5 runs. So we’ll go out West for another projected good stack. While the Yankees are always in play, I’m going to back the rock solid bats of the Angels tonight. In the last two weeks the Angels are hitting 0.247 as a team (T-13) and have 21 home runs (2nd). As mentioned above, one bat that is red hot is Luis Rengifo. I’ll look at him as well as Taylor Ward, Jo Adell, and Kevin Pillar.
Other Stacks to Consider: NY YANKEES, ATLANTA BRAVES
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