Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Sweet Spot here at Win Daily Sports. We’ve had a good week as I’ve posted a 7-4 record on MLB bets since Monday. That has brought us a nice +3.1 unit return so far. Little by little we’re building a nice bankroll this year. So let’s keep it rolling with a healthy 6-game MLB slate for this Thursday. For DFS, we’ll focus on the early games as that gives us a nice 5-game pool to choose from.
1000 AM UPDATE: ONLY DFS PLAYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WILL HAVE MLB BETS UP BY 1130 AM. They’ll be posted here and in the tracker. I still need to run last night’s results for today’s model.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
NEW YORK YANKEES -115 at BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The Yankees and Orioles are wrapping up a competitive 4-game series. The Yankees won yesterday by a score of 2-0. No team has scored more than 4 runs in a game this series with the Yankees having just 4 total runs in 3 games. What I like about them today is that they are 3-1 ATS as road favorites. And they’re 7-4 in day games. They’ve also hit O’s SP Kyle Bradish well, with Verdugo and Torres leading the way with a combined 9 for 23 off Baltimore’s pitcher.
CHICAGO CUBS -110 at NEW YORK METS
The Mets are still seething at the late call that lost them the game last night to Chicago. And that could carry over to today’s game as it’s a quick turnaround from a night game to day game. Additionally, the gap in starting pitching is actually quite wide as Ben Brown projects much better than Mets SP Adrian Houser. And the Mets are just 1-4 in Houser’s starts while the Cubs are 5-2 when Brown pitches.
DOG OF THE DAY: WASHINGTON NATIONALS +175 at TEXAS RANGERS
The Nationals play teams tough as witnessed yesterday when they won in Texas by a score of 1-0. Today they face Nathan Eovaldi who has a good, not great, start to 2024. The Rangers are just 3-3 in his starts. And they’re just 4-7 in day games.
The Nats are starting Mitchell Parker who has been great so far this year. He owns a 1.69 ERA and Washington is 3-0 in his starts. There’s too much value at this big number so I’m taking the Nats as my dog of the day.
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 12:10PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 12:10pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
Top Pitchers to Target:
EDWARD CABRERA ($9700 DK):
Highest salary on the board but also has the highest ceiling based on opponent and season metrics. His 31.3% K rate is the highest on the board by far. His 5.28 ERA is also met with a FIP that is almost three runs lower at 2.42. Then there’s the Rockies who are 4th overall in K rate. And on the road, they are just 26th in runs scored and 20th in batting average.
NATHAN EOVALDI ($9100 DK):
On a small slate, Eovaldi is probably the name that will be most trusted today. He’s been solid this year posting a 3.00 ERA and 9.00 K/9 inning rate. But he has been even better at home where he has a 2.04 ERA in three starts and a 9.8 K/9 inning rate. The Nats are a plucky offense that can give pitchers fits. But they still sit in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in most offensive categories.
KYLE HARRISON ($8200 DK):
Harrison is one of the prized prospects in the Giants organization. And at times, he’s flashed that potential this year. In fact, one of those times was his most recent start against Pittsburgh when he pitched 6 shutout innings and racked up 7 K’s. Then there’s Boston who struggles against LHP’s. They own the highest K rate in the MLB at 29.1% against southpaws. And their team batting average splits are 0.257 against RHP’s but just 0.231 against LHP’s. This is a great spot to for the hard throwing lefty based on value and matchup.
Value Pitchers to Target:
N/A
There’s little reason to dip below Carlos Rodon ($7900 DK) today. Both Winckowski and Lambert look to be in line for 2-3 innings max. And Houser’s ERA is north of 8.30. You could consider Ben Brown ($7300 DK) if you want to get different as his FIP is 3.14 which is almost 1.5 runs lower than his ERA. And the Mets lineup hasn’t been great. So that’s the best to offer of the lower priced arms today.
Top Stacks to Target:
CUBS:
Mets SP Adrian Houser pitches to contact. He has the lowest K rate, 12.3%, on the board. And hitters are batting 0.306 off him this year. He is due for some regression, but I’ll still back the Cubs bats today against Houser due to their own low K rate (17th). I’ll look at batters like Ian Happ, Chris Morel, Michael Busch, and Nico Hoerner.
YANKEES:
The Yankees offense is hot. In the last 10 days they are 5th in batting average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. In that stretch, Anthony Rizzo has 4 homers followed by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge with 3 each. They are likely facing Kyle Bradish today who they’ve had success off prior. Circle a stack around the three previously mentioned bats as well as Alex Verdugo (if he’s activated from paternity list today), Gleyber Torres and Jose Trevino.
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