Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We are so close to the weekend which is sure to bring us some great sporting events such as the finish to the PGA Championship as well as potential starts to the NBA Conference Finals. But we can’t forget about the MLB and the opportunities present. This week has been good from a betting perspective as my game bets are 6-2 this week. The DFS market has been good too as we’ve seen some value pitching light up the board. So let’s get at it today and tackle this Thursday and turn our screens green.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
TAMPA BAY RAYS -110 at BOSTON RED SOX
This four-game series between the Rays and Red Sox has been ultra-competitive as the largest margin of victory has been two, which was in their first game this week. And the pitching has been solid as no team has scored more than 5 runs in a game. Tonight, should be very similar as we have a pick ’em line, and two pitchers with sub 3.50 ERA’s.
The Rays hand the ball to Zack Littell who has been cooking of late. He has two straight wins and is posting a 2.31 ERA in those starts. Additionally, his 3.02 ERA is met with an impressive 2.50 FIP. His adversary tonight, Cooper Criswell, is actually headed in the opposite direction. His ERA in May has gone up 1.5 runs from that in April. And his overall 2.10 ERA is met with a 3.89 FIP. As for the offenses, Tampa has performed much better than Boston over the past 10 days. The Rays are in the top 12 in BA, OPS, and wOBA over that stretch. While Boston is in the bottom 5 of baseball in those categories.
I’ll take the hotter pitcher, and the hotter offense, in a virtual even line tonight in Boston.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -145 vs NEW YORK METS
The Phillies are looking for four-straight wins against their rivals from the north when they take the field tonight at Citizens Bank Park. This Phillies have won the first three games against the Mets this week in a variety of ways. They did it with a 9th inning comeback in Game 1. They did it with a complete game shut-out in Game 2. And they did it with an offensive outburst in Game 3. Which just shows the diversity in this team and how they can win any type of game. Tonight they give the ball to Taijuan Walker who has been impressive since coming off the IL. He is also an ex-Met so there will be that added motivation for him tonight against his former team.
And I like the fact the Phillies are seeing a LHP for a 2nd straight night as Jose Quintana gets the ball for New York. The Phillies can deploy a similar lineup to last night when they pounded out 10 runs and 10 hits.
DOG OF THE DAY: OAKLAND ATHLETICS +175 at HOUSTON ASTROS
The Astros are giving the ball to SP Cristian Javier tonight who is coming off his worst start of his career. In his last outing, he allowed 7 ER’s in just 1.1 innings of work to the Detroit Tigers. His 4.01 ERA is met with a 5.06 FIP showing he’s still headed in a negative direction. I’m also concerned about the high walk rate, 13.4%, as it shows his control is completely out of whack.
The A’s are rolling out 22-year old Joey Estes for his 2nd career start. All he did in his first outing was toss 5 innings of 2-hit ball enroute to a victory against Seattle.
This number just seems too high based on the recent form of the starting pitchers, meaning there’s good value on the A’s. So I’m willing to invest in a large dog tonight in Oakland against a hot Houston team.
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 6:40PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TYLER GLASNOW ($10,400 DK):
On a short slate, lean on the known commodity. Tyler Glasnow has pitched great for the Dodgers this season as he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Add to that he has the highest K rate on the slate at 33.4%. And Cincinnati has the 5th highest team K rate on the season at 25.1%.
JARED JONES ($9100 DK):
Jones was hit around in his last start and scored just 12.1 DK points. But he’s shown an ability to rebound. In the only other start in which he finished with less than 19.3 DK points, he followed that with a 7 inning and 10 K performance against Colorado. He also owns the 2nd highest K rate on the slate at 30.3%. The Cubs can strike out, as they own the 11th highest K rate in the league at 23%.
Value Pitchers to Target:
JUSTIN STEELE ($7600 DK)
I’ll double down in the Cubs/Pirates game tonight. Steele emerged from the IL last week and surprisingly had a poor outing against Pittsburgh. But this is the same pitcher that finished in the top 3 in NL Cy Young voting last year. And he gets to face the Pirates again so he has some motivation on how to rebound from that poor start. The Pirates have the 6th highest K rate over the past week and are batting just 0.231 as a team in that stretch.
HONORABLE MENTION: TAIJUAN WALKER ($6300 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
DODGERS:
The Dodgers are facing a bullpen game against Cincy tonight. And that’s good news for LA bats as the Reds bullpen has a 4.25 ERA which is 19th best in the league. I’ll look at the top of the lineup, if I go cheap on pitching, and roster Ohtani, Betts, Smith and Hernandez.
PHILLIES:
As mentioned above, the Phillies beat up Mets pitching last night. And they are facing Jose Quintana tonight who has an ERA above 5.00. I like the right-handed bats like Realmuto, Bohm, Castellanos and Rojas. But I’ll also consider Harper who hit a homerun off a LHP in Joey Lucchesi last night.
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