Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We are still cooking on our MLB Bets, posting a +13.2 unit profit in the past 10 days. As always, bets are loaded in this article, Discord and on our website. DFS has also been very good as I recommended a 5x value pitcher on Monday with SP David Festa of the Twins as he twirled a gem against the Cubs. Today is a medium sized slate, with 10 games on tap, but we’ll focus on the night slate (5 games) for our DFS plays.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
CINCINNATI REDS -180 at MIAMI MARLINS
This one is all about riding the hot hand of Hunter Greene. The Reds SP has quietly put up an amazing stretch over the past month. I say quietly only because others like Dylan Cease and Blake Snell have taken the headlines with their pitching prominence and no-hitters. As for Greene, he hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts and has a shutout streak spanning 22 innings. And his ERA over his last five starts, which spans July and August, is 0.27. While this has been an uber-impressive run, his season as a whole has been fantastic as he’s T-10 with a fWAR of 3.3 and has the 3rd best batting average against at 0.179.
Tonight he faces a Marlins team that has fared better of late. But Miami is 29th in runs scored and 28th in home runs on the season. And they have the lowest walk rate in the league at 6.3% which can play right into the hands of someone whose only weakness can be control (4th highest BB% of all qualified SPs). While we didn’t focus on the Reds offense, it is one that’s hitting the ball for power as they’re 3rd in ISO and 8th in Slugging over the past week.
GAME 2
DOG OF THE DAY: TAMPA BAY RAYS +105 at ST LOUIS CARDINALS
For some reason, the Rays love playing on Thursday’s. With their latest triumph, they moved their record to 8-1 on a Thirsty Thursday. And tonight, they throw one of their young phenom’s in Shane Baz as they look to salvage one game in their series with the Cardinals. You can read my take on Baz in the DFS section below.
But one other interesting trend is that while only 23% of the bets are on the Rays, 36% of the money backs Tampa. That’s a strong sign that we’re seeing sharp money on the Rays which is good enough for me to back a live dog tonight in a getaway game.
PLAYER PROPS
VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR over 2.5 H+R+R (+130 BET365), over 1.5 bases (-115 DK) and over 0.5 HR’s (+425 BET365)
The Jays are struggling, but their star 1B is not. Vlad extended his hit streak last night to 19 straight games. He’s now had a hit in every game since the All Star Break. So we’re going to back one of the hottest hitters (can’t ignore Bobby Witt Jr) and load up on several of his props tonight. Afterall, he’s facing a pitcher in Dean Kremer who he is batting 0.320 against in 25 career at-bats which also include 4 homers.
KETEL MARTE over 0.5 runs scored (-130 BET365)
Marte is facing a lefty tonight which is great news for prop bettors. As we all know, the D’backs 2B is a switch hitter. But he hits 100 points better from the right side with a 0.360 batting average vice 0.260 when hitting lefty. Marte’s streak of five straight games with a run scored was snapped in Game 2 yesterday but here’s betting he starts a new one tonight as Arizona feasts against LH pitching.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 7:10 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
Top Pitchers to Target:
BRYAN WOO ($9000 DK):
The Tigers have been scrappy in their series with the Mariners, scoring 10 runs in two games against the likes of George Kirby and Luis Castillo. And they’ve put together 23 hits in those two games as well. But the real question to me is, can a team that has a collective 0.208 average (29th in MLB) since July 24th do it for three games straight. Especially against another quality arm like Woo. And I don’t see them happening. The main thing I’m looking at is Woo’s performance at home as he has a 0.95 ERA and 3-0 record when pitching in Seattle.
While his overall 2.08 ERA is not necessarily sustainable long term, I think it’ll still trend positively for this matchup against a Tigers team that has scored the least runs in the MLB in the past 2 weeks. And that’s saying something in a league where the White Sox exist.
NESTOR CORTES ($7900 DK)
This slate has so many warts in it when it comes to pitching. But we’re going to have to suck it up and deal with at least one. And my preference of those inconsistent and flawed pitchers is Nester Cortes. For one, he did have a solid start in his last outing against Philly (who ranks top 2 in BA, SLG, wOBA, etc against LHPs) where he racked up 19.0 DK points. That was coming three consecutive terrible starts. So maybe he found something in that quirky windup and delivery.
But secondly, this is more about an LAA team that doesn’t fare well against LHP’s. On the season they are 22nd in OPS, 22nd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ against southpaws. And it has been worse of late, as over the past two weeks they are 23rd in batting average, 28th in OPS, 28th in ISO and 28th in wOBA. They also pair up well with Nestor’s K rate (22.5%) as they strike out 23.7% of the time against LHP’s.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: DEAN KREMER ($8100 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
SHANE BAZ ($7600 DK)
Baz has the highest upside of anyone on the slate. The 25-year old was the 12th pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2017 MLB draft. He was then traded in a package with Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer. Oh how the Rays know how to scout the big arms. And he ascended up the Minor League rankings to pitch in a playoff game in the 2021 season. But elbow issues cost him the 2022 and 2023 season making 2024 his return. That has made him fall off people’s radars and ultimately lowers expectations for the high draft pick. While he had a slow start to the season, making his AAA debut in late May, his performance at the big league level is showing promise. He’s racked up 21 K’s in 19.2 innings and posted a respectable 3.60 ERA. The issue has been free passes, but that really only showed up in one game where he walked 5 batters.
His opponent today, the St Louis Cardinals, do have a plethora of LHB’s they can put in their lineup. But most of their primary power comes from the right with the core of Winn, Contreras, Goldschmidt and Arenado. And over the past 2 weeks, the Cards have been hit or miss. In that stretch they’ve been shutout twice but also scored over eight runs in two games. Additionally, they aren’t the most patient team as they rank 24th in walk rate which could work in Shane Baz’s favor. I’m willing to take a chance on a former prodigy that has hit the injury wall but is showing signs of improvement in his return to the MLB.
HONORABLE MENTION: N/A
Top Stacks to Target:
DIAMONDBACKS:
The D’backs continue to rake as they swept a double header, and the overall series, with the Guardians earlier this week. In the past 2 weeks they are batting 0.298 as a team and are 1st in SLG, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ in that stretch. Tonight, they face a lifelong gas can in Kolby Allard who is a reclamation project for the Phillies. What’s even scarier is their splits against LHP’s. The D’backs are 1st in batting (0.279), 3rd in OPS and 2nd in wOBA on the season against lefties. I’ll look to circle my stack around the top as Ketel Marte is on fire by batting 0.318 with 7 home runs in his past 12 games. Other names to consider are Jake McCarthy, Gabriel Moreno, Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suarez and Corbin Carroll.
Other Stacks to Consider: PHILLIES, ORIOLES
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