Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We have an action-packed Thursday as there are a total of 11 games on the schedule. There are more games in the daytime slot (6) but we’re going to focus on the night slate (4 games) as it has main GPP’s for the day. And our bets will be posted here by 12pm for the day games and 5pm for the night games.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
COLORADO ROCKIES -130 vs MIAMI MARLINS
The Rockies and Marlins are finishing off a four-game set today in Denver. And they are both sending prospects on the mound who they are hoping can show something to be excited for in the 2025 season. Both Marlins SP Velente Bellozo and Rockies SP Bradley Blalock have FIP’s and xFIP’s almost 2 runs higher than their posted ERA. So negative regression is likely coming for both. Therefore, in that case, I’m leaning on the better offense which resides with the Rockies. Colorado is better than Miami in every major hitting category. But if we dive further into the splits is where we see the significant difference. The Rockies at home bat 0.269 (3rd best), have a 0.335 OBP (5th best) and a slugging percentage of 0.438 (7th best). The Marlins on the road bat 0.236 (19th), have a 0.285 OBP (28th), and own a 0.362 slugging percentage (27th).
In a game of doormats, I’ll take the Rockies and their bats to come away with a victory today against the Fish.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 4.
If you’re playing the early slate, my favorite pitchers are:
- MICHAEL KING ($10300 DK)
- NATHAN EOVALDI ($10100 DK)
- KEIDER MONTERO ($7500 DK)
- RYNE NELSON ($7700 DK)
As for stacks, look at Milwaukee as they have a good matchup versus Hayden Birdsong. Jackson Chourio has been a steady force of late and needs to be in your Brewers stack. Willy Adames and William Contreras also have good numbers of late. Also look at Colorado, as the Rockies have scored 16 runs and racked up 22 hits in their last 2 games. Aaron Schunk was a fantasy value gem yesterday as he hit his first MLB homerun. And Ezequial Tovar has been very hot batting 0.357 with 2 homeruns in the current series with the Marlins.
Top Pitchers to Target:
HUNTER BROWN ($8900 DK):
Hunter Brown has been part of the huge turnaround by the Astros. As his season has mirrored his teams’. The slow start is firmly behind as Brown is pitching the best baseball of his career. In August alone, the Astros SP is 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in 4 starts. And most importantly for us DFS players, he has the highest K rate on the slate tonight at 25.5%.
Kansas City has been trending well at the plate, with a 0.277 BA over the past 10 days. And they were a big reason why Brown had to readjust and figure out his issues. As they tagged Brown for 9 runs and 11 hits in just 0.2 innings back in a game in early April. So to me, there is revenge on the mind for a hot pitcher facing a team that put him at the lowest point of his MLB career. And for that reason, plus his recent form, I like Brown at the top of my pitching staff tonight.
BOWDEN FRANCIS ($8100 DK)
If you haven’t noticed, one of the hottest pitchers in baseball as of this writing is Bowden Francis. Over his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 27 K’s in 22 innings pitched. And in his last start, he took a no-hitter into the 9th inning only to be broken up by a homerun from Taylor Ward. Tonight, he faces the Red Sox who are slowly falling out of the Wild Card race based on their play in August. Two recent wins against Toronto has helped, but the Sox are just 12-13 in the month of August. And their hitting of late has been an issue as they are batting just 0.227 with a 27.7% K rate over the past 10 days.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: BRADY SINGER ($7800 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ ($6900 DK)
This just looks like a flat-out pricing error by DK. First off, Sanchez just saw the Braves last week as was at $7K. He pitched a quality start in that outing and put up 17.5 DK points (2.5x value). And guess what, Sanchez is way better at home than he is on the road. The Phillies All Star SP has the following splits between home and away:
- HOME: 7-3 record / 2.18 ERA / 0.217 OBA / 2 CG’s
- AWAY: 2-6 record / 5.43 ERA / 0.324 OBA
These numbers are miles apart, yet DK dropped Sanchez’s price from last week’s number when on the road against the same opponent. Anyway, this could all be for naught as the Braves come into Philly on fire. But even Sanchez’s advanced and predictive numbers show he’s pitched better than his overall numbers suggest. His 3.51 ERA is met with a 2.84 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. So, we have great splits, better recent form (2.40 ERA in L2 starts) and predictive positive regression. All at the discount price of $6900. I’ll take it and run.
HONORABLE MENTION: BOBBY MILLER ($7100 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
DODGERS:
The Dodgers are facing off against Cade Povich tonight. That looks to be good news for their bats as Povich owns a 6.10 ERA and a 1-6 record. In his last 7 starts, he’s allowed 8 homeruns and 43 hits. On the season, opponents are batting 0.278 off the O’s SP which would rank 3rd highest in baseball (if he qualified).
So, let’s look to stack some of the core Dodgers hitters like Shohei Ohtani (0.350 BA & 5 HR’s in L 10 games), The only other Dodger bat with recent success is Miguel Rojas who is batting 0.400 over the past 2 weeks. But I will still be interested in bats like Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez as RH bats have a 0.294/0.380/0.917 slash rate against Povich. I will look at Max Muncy and Tommy Edman as well as they will be mid-level and potentially cheaper options to allow us to pair up Ohtani, Betts and Hernandez.
Other Stacks to Consider: BLUE JAYS, PHILLIES
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