Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We have an action-packed Thursday as there are a total of 10 games on the schedule. There is an even split between day and night games, but we’ll give out the night DFS card to allow for more time to review lineups and matchups. And our bets will be posted here by 12pm for the day games and 5pm for the night games.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -130 at ST LOUIS CARDINALS (215pm EST)
The Cardinals finally broke through against the Brewers last night. It took several heroics to beat the top team in the NL Central. From an unlikely homerun by Luken Baker to tie the game in the 7th (1st at-bat of season) to scoring twice against the Brewers formidable closer in Devin Williams. That all led up to Nolan Arenado’s walk-off grand slam in the 10th. Which led to just the 2nd win for the Cardinals against the Brewers this season as they are now 2-7 against the Brew Crew.
And that brings us to today where the Brewers look to their 3rd straight series versus St Louis. It took everything in the Cardinals to squeak out last night’s win. Which shows the gap between these two teams as the Brewers have outscored the Cards 51-28 on the season. Today’s SP for STL, Miles Mikolas, has faced the Brewers twice this season and has a 6.75 ERA. On the other hand, Milwaukee SP Freddy Peralta has faced the Cards twice and has a 2.25 ERA and 15 K’s in 12 innings pitched. Finally, we’re seeing smart money come in on the Brewers as they have more handle than bets placed. Understandably so as the gap in pitching and hitting favors Milwaukee.GAME 2
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
If you’re playing the early slate, my favorite pitchers are:
- Osvaldo Bido ($8300 DK)
- Jeffrey Springs ($8000 DK)
- Justin Steele ($9000 DK)
As for stacks, look at Milwaukee as they have good numbers against Mikolas. Jackson Chourio was a gem last night and continues to be a force. Willy Adames and William Contreras also have good numbers off the Cards SP. Also consider adding Rhys Hoskins who has two HR’s in his career off Mikolas and one of the speedy lefties like Turang or Mitchell.
Top Pitchers to Target:
DYLAN CEASE ($9400 DK):
You’re going to have to pay up for at least one arm in the $8-10K range tonight. While I love Skenes, there are flags around his late season performance and potential Garrett Crochet like usage. So I’m going to instead pivot and look at Dylan Cease who at any night has a potential for a no-hitter. But he also has the potential for 4+ walks and less than 5 innings pitched. I’m betting it’s the good Cease tonight as he returns home after three straight road starts. In fact he’s only pitched once at home in the last month. And home is where he’s found better success, outside of the no-hitter, as his ERA is 3.17 in San Diego vice 3.69 on the road. But the K’s are what’s really impacted by his home/road splits as he has a 12.0 K/9 at home vice 10.7 K/9 on the road.
As for the Mets, they’re batting just 0.238 with a 24.7% K rate over the last week. They are coming off two thrilling wins against the O’s, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. And they just played out west in early August where they went 3-6 against teams like the M’s, Angels and Rockies. In fact, they scored just 1 run in three-game series with Seattle in which they faced pitchers similar to Cease (Castillo, Gilbert, etc).
SPENCER SCHWELLENBACH ($8500 DK)
The Phillies are lucky to get one game so far in their series with the Braves. That’s because the offense has been completely silent as they’ve picked up just 10 hits so far and are batting 0.166 in the series. Today they get to face Spencer Schwellenbach who has become a fixture in the Braves rotation due to injuries to Strider and Elder. Schwellenbach has pitched well especially in the month of July where he posted a 2.04 ERA in four starts. But what makes him attractive today is two things. First, his strikeout percentage is 27.5% putting him in the top 20 percentile of SP’s. And the Phillies struck out 13 times on Tuesday when a similar RHP pitcher, Reynaldo Lopez, started. Secondly, the Braves SP pitched against the Phillies a month ago and had one of his best starts. In that outing he threw 6 innings of 1 run ball with 6 K’s. So there’s high K potential here along with recent success that makes this an attractive spot.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: NICK LODOLO ($8000 DK), PAUL SKENES ($9900 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ ($7000 DK)
Sanchez had a rough stretch since returning from the All-Star Break. In those five outings, he allowed an average of 8 hits per start and had a 6.10 ERA. But he worked on his arm angle after the last start in that stretch and found something that worked. In fact, it worked so well that he pitched a complete game in his last start against the Nationals and allowed just 2 hits. So, I’m banking on those adjustments to carry over to today in Atlanta when the Phillies square off against the Braves. As for Atlanta, they have tons of holes in their lineup due to injury that they have now been forced into starting waiver wire players in key positions in the lineup. From Gio Urshela to Whit Merrifield, the Braves now lack depth and power that was a hallmark of this team. Against LHP’s in August they are batting just 0.239 and have the 5th highest K rate at 28%. Sanchez has been known to struggle on the road. But because of his adjustments and the watered-down Braves lineup, I think he has a great chance to pop today for 2-3x value.
HONORABLE MENTION: JAKE BLOSS ($7700 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ORIOLES:
Houston SP Spencer Arrighetti is much like that old classic film Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. One day, he’s lights out as witnessed by his 13 K performance against the Red Sox earlier this month (that was following up a 12 K outing against Tampa). But then we see the bad Arrighetti showed up against the White Sox in his last start when he allowed 7 hits and 4 ER’s to the worst team in baseball. While I think the good Arrighetti is closer to reality than the bad one, he’s facing a Orioles team that mashes RHP’s. The O’s have the 2nd most homers, are 3rd in OPS, 3rd in Slugging and 2nd in ISO against righties. And Arrighetti is an equal opportunist when it comes to his splits as he’s allowed 8 homers to LH batters and 9 to RH ones. Additionally, his road ERA is 6.08 which is 2 runs higher than his home split.
So, let’s look to stack some of the core Orioles like Gunnar Henderson (0.280 BA & 4 HR’s in L2 weeks), Colton Cowser and Adley Rutschman. But also consider, depending on the batting order, mid and low salary plays like Ryan O’Hearn (0.375 BA L2 weeks), Ramon Urias (0.306 BA & 3 HR’s in L2 weeks) and Cedric Mullins (0.333 BA & 2 HR’s in L2 weeks). As always, Anthony Santander can be in play but he’s batting under 0.200 in August. Therefore, I’d keep him on the lower end of your lineup percentage.
Other Stacks to Consider: BLUE JAYS
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