Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We turn the page on the month of July. But can I say what a month that that was as I closed out July with a 13-2 stretch bringing in +11.1 units over the past week. All picks are here or in our Discord so make sure you’re following, especially on these hot streaks. Today is a small slate, with just 5 games on tap, but I give you my betting and DFS picks for this Thursday below.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
KANSAS CITY ROYALS -160 at DETROIT TIGERS
For many of the same reasons that I like Seth Lugo and the Royals offense tonight, as described in the DFS sections below, are why I like Kansas City to keep their win streak going tonight against Detroit. The Royals are coming into their series with Detroit on a three-game winning streak and winners in six of their last ten. While the Tigers are coming in on the opposite end of that spectrum with a three-game losing streak and losers in seven of their last ten. Additionally, KC made some small moves at the deadline to try and provide offensive and bullpen depth to push for a playoff run. Detroit, on the other hand, did nothing. So the feeling in each clubhouse is decidedly much different with KC having confidence about a postseason run and the Tigers having little to none.
Add to that Seth Lugo’s mastery on the year as he has the 3rd best ERA in baseball and has solid success against Tigers hitters. And the Tigers are hitting under 0.200 in the past 10 days. All of that adds up to positive momentum and reasons I’m backing the Royals tonight.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES +100 over CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
The Orioles hit a massive wall in mid-July but have since started to find their way out of that slump. Winners in four of their last five games, the offense has re-awakened with the arrival of phenom Jackson Holliday. Who, by the way, hit a grand slam yesterday in his first day back since being called up from AAA. Overall, the O’s put up 31 runs in their four-game series with Toronto and batted 0.292 with 11 home runs. I’d say the sticks are back and ready to make noise again.
Then there’s the Guardians who are not well equipped to get into any offensive slugfests. They ended the month of July with the second least runs scored in the MLB at 84. And they had the third worst batting average, 0.225, and fourth least home runs, 25. It’s been a struggle for a long period of time for Cleveland and I’m not sure it’s going to get much better. The Guardians will have to find ways to win with pitching and I’m not trusting that will happen with Ben Lively who has a FIP that is 1.05 runs higher than his ERA.
DOG OF THE DAY: TO BE POSTED LATER
PLAYER PROPS
SETH LUGO over 4.5 K’s (-160) and over 5.5 K’s (+120)
Lugo has hit 6 K’s in five of his last seven starts. And Detroit is striking out at a 26.2% clip over the last week with is a 15% increase over the yearly total of 23%. Let’s juice up for the one line and then put a half unit play on the plus money side of this.
PROP #2
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
Top Pitchers to Target:
SHOTA IMANAGA ($9600 DK):
The Cubs free agent prize started the season with a bang, going 4-0 with an 0.88 ERA in the month of April. He did hit a rough patch in June as he posted a 5.67 ERA in five starts. But he surged back recently with a 2.55 ERA in July. More importantly, the Cubs have won his past three starts which were all against playoff caliber teams in the Royals, Diamondbacks and Orioles. But the main reason I love Imanaga today is because his opponent, the St Louis Cardinals, struggle against LHPs. On the season they are 29th in batting, 27th in ISO, 28th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against southpaws. The Cubs starter has faced the Cards once this season and went 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 ER.
SETH LUGO ($9400 DK):
Even though Lugo is 3rd in the MLB in ERA, we have seen signs of negative regression of late as he’s been hit around in 2 of his last 3 starts. But have no fear today, because the Tigers are here. Unfortunately, the baseball team out of Detroit has completely fizzled after a promising start. And their recent struggles are now becoming more their norm. Over the past week, the Tigers are 29th in batting with a 0.196 average. In that stretch they’ve scored just 17 runs, good for last in baseball. They are coming off being swept in a two-game series withe Cleveland and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Tigers have also been shutout in two of their last three outings. Add to that Lugo faced them earlier this year and tossed seven shutout innings with nine K’s.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: CHARLIE MORTON ($8800 DK),
Value Pitchers to Target:
TREVOR ROGERS ($7100 DK)
Trevor Rogers was traded over the weekend and made a leap from last place to first place. And today, he’ll get the opportunity to pitch for a first-place team when takes the mound for the Baltimore Orioles against the Cleveland Guardians. There are several reasons I like this spot for Rogers with the first being his recent form. The O’s LHP has allowed 2 ER’s or less in five straight starts and eight of his last nine. Secondly, he’s facing a Cleveland team that has scored just 20 runs over the past week, including getting shut out twice. In that stretch they’re batting 0.220 which is good for 27th in the MLB. Lastly, his 4.53 ERA is met with a 4.43 FIP. That shows his pitching results is on par with his performance. However, he does have a 0.316 BABIP which is ~30 points higher than league average. What’s important to note here is that Baltimore is tied for 1st in fielding percentage while his former team, Miami, is 20th. So that number could reduce considerably with a better defense behind him.
HONORABLE MENTION: MAX MEYER ($7500 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ROYALS:
The Tigers are handing the ball to Keider Montero who owns a 1-4 record and 6.38 ERA. More importantly he’s been shelled of late allowing 15 runs and 6 home runs in his past three starts. That recent performance raised his HR’s allowed to 10 in just 36.1 innings. On the flip side, the Royals are coming off a sweep of the White Sox in which they scored 22 runs in three games. They’ve now scored three runs or more in seven straight games and twelve of their last thirteen. We will have to start our stack with Bobby Witt who is blistering hot. In the last two weeks he’s batting 0.565 with 3 homers, 13 RBI’s and 16 runs scored. We’ll also look at Vinnie Pasquantino who is batting 0.375 in that same stretch. If playing tonight, Freddy Fermin will be a cheap option to consider. And then we’ll look to round out the middle of the lineup with Makail Garcia, Salvador Perez, MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe (0.306 BA, 3 homers in last 11 games).
Other Stacks to Consider: ORIOLES, ANGELS
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