Dave Gloeckner 
We had a great day in the MLB Betting Market registering a 3-1 record. That included a “dog of the day” with the Nationals holding on to hand the Pirates their first loss of the season. And as I wake up this morning and see the sun for the first time in 4 days, I get juiced up knowing better weather is headed our way. Which also means less uncertainty in the DFS and betting markets. I pretty much just threw away money during the early slate yesterday as games that weren’t expected to play (Phillies & Orioles) did and ones that were expected did not (Braves).
Remember, both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
This is a small slates with the main DFS card starting at 4:05pm and including just 4 games. But sometimes the smaller slates are easier to attack based on a reduction in player pool. Getting your pitchers right will almost certainly put you in the green.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
Every Thursday I plan to post our Win Daily Sports MLB Power Rankings. These are derived from game results and are based on a combination of factors. The Dodgers leaped the Braves to reach the top spot but it’s by a narrow margin. The Yankees also jumped up to the top 3 as they won 6 of their first 7 games. For the fallers, both the Marlins and Cardinals dropped 3 spots each as the rating index didn’t like what they saw from two teams considered to be playoff contenders. Ironically enough, those two teams open a 3-game series today in St Louis.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES -120 vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
One of the games I saw down in Spring Training this past March was the Pirates versus the Phillies. And in that contest we got to see Martin Perez up close and personal. And what I saw from him was a pitcher that was dialed in to both sides of the plate. He ended up tossing 5 shutout innings and racked up 8 K’s. He then went on the mound 6 days later against the Yankees and pitched 3 shutout innings to lower his spring ERA to 0.60. That performance earned him the number two spot in Pittsburgh’s rotation which he parlayed into a win against the Marlins. He looks to keep that train rolling today against the Nationals in DC.
While the Nats hung a loss on Pittsburgh last night, they did so against a RHP which they’ve hit well so far. Perez is a LHP which is a whole different story for Washington. They are 27th in batting average, with a 0.171 BA, against lefties and have yet to hit a home run off a southpaw. They are also handing the ball to Josiah Gray who got roughed up on Opening Day allowing 7 ER’s to the Reds. If he can’t go long, they will turn to a bullpen that is 22nd in the league in ERA at 5.49.
I like Pittsburgh’s offense to hit a few dingers today and for Perez to keep on his early season dominance. Those will both add up to another Pirates win.
PROJECTED LINE: Pirates -145 / EV +21%
MINNESOTA TWINS -150 vs CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
The Guardians won their first two series of the season, both on the road, and now have to fly from Seattle to Minnesota for another series away from home. They hand the ball to Tanner Bibee who had a mixed outcome in his first start. While he allowed just 3 runs, he pitched only 4 innings due to control issues (5 walks). Bibee had an up-and-down spring as well ending with a 4.00 ERA. On top of that, he pitched 3 games against the Twins last season and the Guardians were 1-2 as he pitched to a 4.20 ERA.
The Twins were able to salvage a game in their series against Milwaukee with a win yesterday. After leading the AL in home runs last year with 233, they are last in the Majors with just 2 so far in 2024. That will turn around soon, and I’m betting it does today. Bibee is a fly ball pitcher (42% FB rate) who allowed 13 home runs in 19 starts last year. Take the Twins to win their home opener today against a tired Cleveland team.
PROJECTED LINE: Twins -160 / EV +3%
DOG OF THE DAY: DETROIT TIGERS +120 vs NEW YORK METS (GAME 2)
The Mets are forced into starting Jose Butto in Game 2 today due to the shift in games and need to keep their primary starters on normal rest. Butto was demoted to AAA Syracuse in Spring Training but will be called up to fill in today. He had a cup of coffee at the big league level last year and fared decent. But his career record is 1-4 with a 4.70 ERA. His big issue has been the free passes as he has a 12.4% walk rate.
On the other hand, Detroit is starting Matt Manning who had a solid 3.58 ERA last season. After being drafted in the 1st-round out of high school in 2016, he’s starting to round into a reliable SP for Detroit and is still showing some promise flashing a sub 3.50 ERA combined in his past 2 seasons. He doesn’t strike out batters at a high volume but does produce weak contact as league exit velocity was just 90.2 (bottom 10% in league).
The Tigers are a better team than the Mets. And Manning is a better Major League pitcher than Jose Butto. We’ll take the plus money here with Detroit.
PROJECTED LINE: Tigers +110 / +5% EV
PLAYER PROPS
MATT MANNING over 15.5 outs (Not Yet Posted)
Player prop lines aren’t released yet for Game 2. But from what I’ve seen, this prop should come in at 15.5 outs. The Mets are 28th in batting at 0.188. They also aren’t seeing many pitches as they’re 28th in walk rate at 6.3%. They will be desperate to get some runs early and will look to jump on Manning. That should play into a lower pitch count and get him into the 6th today.
BOBBY WITT over 1.5 total bases (-105 DK), over 2.5 H+R+R (+110 DK) and over 0.5 SB’s (+290 DK)
The Royals SS has started the season hot batting 0.400 over the first six games. He has a hit in 5 of those games. And has gone over his total base prop in those same five games. Add in he has 6 stolen bases and we just can’t pass up this opportunity to pound several of his props today against Michael Soroka who was demoted from baseball kingdom (Braves) to the White Sox this year. He is trying to show he can regain his prior form but if his opening start is any indication, it may take much longer to do so.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – JAZZ CHISHOLM over 0.5 HRs +450 DK
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Lance Lynn pitched well in his first game back in Cardinal red since 2017. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to stop giving up dingers. The hefty righty allowed 44 home runs last year between his time in Chicago and LA. Wind looks like it’s blowing out to RCF at Busch today. Give me a left-handed bat with some pop, and who has 1 home run off Lynn in his career.
DFS – 4:10 PM SLATE
Tonight is a tricky slate with just 4 games to choose from. So there are less recommended plays. But it’s still a card worth playing and our arms and stacks are below.
Top Pitchers to Target:
PABLO LOPEZ ($9800 DK): The Twins SP is the best arm on the mound and the only #1 going today. Yes he will be popular but he’s worth the price as it’s still below $10K and can allow you to build solid stacks. He opened the year with a dominant performance and racked up 29.4 DK points against KC. Don’t think twice here, he should be in most of your lineups on DK.
SETH LUGO ($8300 DK): Lugo is my favorite pitcher tonight for the price. He’s facing a White Sox team that is batting 0.181 and is 26th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+. Lugo pitched 6 innings in his first start this year and allowed just 2 hits. He’s an effective SP when healthy and should provide us positive value tonight.
MARTIN PEREZ ($7000 DK): For the same reasons I’m betting Pittsburgh, I will also use Martin Perez in most of my lineups. He looked great in the spring and followed that up with a solid first start. His downfall last year was that he wore down during the season. But he started off April and March with a 2.41 ERA over his first 6 starts. So I’ll be looking to use him early and then see if there are any metrics pointing to a regression.
Top Stacks to Target:
PITTSBURGH PIRATES: Josiah Gray was susceptible to the home run in 2022 when he allowed a staggering 38 dingers. That dropped to 22 in 2023, but he also lost his strike-out ability and gave up more total hits. In his opener, he allowed 7 ER’s and 2 home runs so his regression to 2022 might have started already. The Pirates have put up some crooked numbers this year and some of their projected starters have good numbers off Gray. Start your stacks around Reynolds, Suwinski and Cruz. I’ll also look to get Hayes, Joe and Tellez in some of my stacks when I go for 4-5 from one team.
MINNESOTA TWINS: The Twins were able to see Bibee three times last year and had 14 hits in 16 innings. More importantly, they drew 9 walks and we just saw Bibee struggle with control in Game 1 against Oakland. The Twins started to break out of their offensive funk yesterday posting 7 runs in Milwaukee. Buxton hit the ball hard and raised his average to 0.316 on the year. And Alex Kirilloff went 4 for 4 raising his BA to 0.444. Look to get those two in a stack today along with Correa, Kepler and Carlos Santana.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS: What was once considered a strength for the Miami Marlins has now turned into a major weakness. Their starting pitching did suffer injuries to start the year, but the incumbent SP’s haven’t been able to do much to soften that blow. Their starters are 26th in the MLB with a 5.94 ERA and it’s not like they’ve faced juggernauts in the Pirates and Angels. On the other hand, the Cards have faced two solid staffs in two big ballparks are fared well going 3-4 against the Dodgers and Padres. I’ll be looking to stack the top of the order against Weathers which includes Donovan, Goldschmidt, Contreras, Arenado and Gorman. You could also wrap the bottom if Walker and Winn start today and then attach Donovan to that for a good 8-1 stack.
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