Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. And there is a lot of early action in MLB today. So let’s get out to the park and bet some day baseball and play a stacked DFS card.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS-130 vs PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Brewers SP Freddie Peralta has a 2-0 record with a 1.00 ERA away from home. Conversely, Pirates SP Mitch Keller has a 4.50 ERA at home and has shown control issues by offering 7 walks in 2 starts.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS -115 vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Toronto SP Jose Berrios leads the league with an 0.85 ERA. But his FIP and xERA are 3 to 4 runs higher. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, as witnessed by his 7 Ks/9. His counterpart, Cole Ragans, has the opposite regression coming as his 4.31 ERA is met with a 1.99 FIP.
DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO CUBS +125 vs HOUSTON ASTROS
The Cubs are looking for a sweep of the Astros and they’ll have to do it by winning against 41-year old Justin Verlander. But here’s the good news, the Astros are just 2-7 ATS as road favorites. They’re also just 2-6 straight up in day games. The Cubs tend to play the most day games in the league, and are 7-3 ML when the sun is out. The value is good enough, and the trends point in Chicago’s favor. Bring out the brooms today in the Windy City!
PLAYER PROPS
ZACK WHEELER over 7.5 K’s (-110 DK)
The Reds have the highest K rate in the league at 26.7%. Wheeler struck out 10 Reds the last time he faced them and has gone over this number 3 of hos last 4 outings.
FREDDIE PERALTA over 17.5 OUTS (-110 DK)
Peralta has gone over this number in both of his road starts. And he’s exceeded this prop in 3 of his 4 starts this year. Good value on this short number.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – DYLAN MOORE over 0.5 HR’s (+320 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Fly ball hitter versus Fly ball pitcher. Heaney allows FB’s at over 50% and has allowed 3 home runs this year.
DFS – 1:10 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:10pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 8.
Top Pitchers to Target:
COLE RAGANS ($8300 DK): We spoke about it earlier, but Ragans has a 1.99 FIP and is due for positive regression. He also carriers an impressive K rate of 29.5%. And the Jays have scored just 9 runs in their 3 games against the Royals so far. Which means KC has a solid game plan that should reproduce today with their #1 SP.
YOSHI YAMAMOTO ($9600 DK): Yamamoto has the highest K rate of all pitchers on the slate at 32.3%. And he ventured into the 6th inning for the first time in his career in his last start. He’s starting to feel out MLB batters and learn the game. Add to that his FIP is 1.5 runs lower than his 4.50 ERA. We’re headed towards good days with the Dodgers prized FA.
LUIS CASTILLO ($8600 DK): Castillo is starting to show signs of positive regression. He has two Quality Starts (QS) in his last two outings. He was particularly great in his last start where he threw 7 shutout innings with 9 K’s in Colorado. While Texas is a tough lineup to navigate, the Mariners RHP did throw well in his one start in the Lone Star State last year, racking up 6 K’s in 7 innings while allowing just 1 ER.
MACKENZIE GORE ($8100 DK): Might sound crazy attacking the Dodgers. But their wOBA is 11th overall against LHP’s and their wRC+ is 12th. Gore has found a few extra MPH’s on his fastball this year and sports a shiny 31.8% K rate.
Value Pitchers to Target:
TRISTON MCKENZIE ($7700 DK):
ANDREW HEANEY ($6000 DK):
Top Stacks to Target:
TWINS:
PADRES:
GUARDIANS:
ROCKIES:
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