Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Masters Thursday but we still have 7 baseball games on the board today. So while our eyes may be on Augusta, we are not going to pass up the value in the MLB betting market today. Sit back, relax and make some cash.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
HOUSTON ASTROS -135 at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
I’ll give it to you short and sweet, this is all about whether or not you believe the Kansas City Royals can sweep the Houston Astros. Now there’s a little more to this bet including positive regression for Astros SP Hunter Brown and negative regression for Royals SP Brady Singer. But I’m taking the reigning AL West Champs to bounce back after a beat down and provide one of their own.
PROJECTED LINE: Astros -155 / 15% EV
DOG OF THE DAY: BOSTON RED SOX +110 vs BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Here’s another team trying to avoid a sweep. The Red Sox have dropped the first two to Baltimore and look to salvage a game this evening. Orioles SP Grayson Rodriguez has impressed so far. But his 2.19 ERA is met with a 4.51 FIP showing that his results have had a factor of luck. Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock has an impressive 0.96 ERA and has allowed just 1 ER on the season.
PROJECTED LINE: Red Sox +100 / +10% EV
PLAYER PROPS
RANGER SUAREZ over 3.5 K’s (-130 DK)
Waiting on an official line but estimating it’ll be 3.5 or 4.5 K’s today. Rain is in the forecast in Philly so that could also change this bet if the game gets delayed.
YORDAN ALVAREZ over 0.5 RBI’s (+140 DK)
When the Astros are down, they look to their superstar to pick them up. And I expect Alvarez to do just that today. The Astros slugger has 11 RBI’s in 13 games this year. And he has 3 career RBI’s off Brady Singer. Those numbers plus the +140 odds on this prop are the reason we’re backing it.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – WYATT LANGFORD over 0.5 HR’s (+400 FanDuel)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
After leading Spring Training in home runs, the Rangers rookie has yet to hit one in the Majors. Well I’m betting that ends today against Oakland SP JP Sears. The A’s starter has a 50% FB rate this year with 11.1% of those turning into homers. Jonah Heim at +350 is another batter I’ll consider as well.
DFS – 12:20 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 12:05pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 4.
Top Pitchers to Target:
FREDDY PERALTA ($8800 DK): Peralta faced the Reds twice last year and allowed 0 ER’s in 12 innings. He also struck out 13 Reds batters in one of those outings. He’s the highest priced but also the best option to pop on today’s small slate.
UPDATE: CINCY GAME IS POSTPONED SO NEED TO RECONSIDER ARMS AND PIVOT TO ALLAN WINANS $7900 & BRADY SINGER $8200. Of the two, I’ll play Winans due to the differences in offenses between the Mets and Astros.
HUNTER BROWN ($7500 DK): Brown has been bad this year. But he’s still working out the kinks of his new pitch arsenal that he deployed in the spring. Positive regression is headed his way and he’ll look to today as that opportunity against a lineup that will be heavy with RH bats.
JON GRAY ($6500 DK): The Rangers RHP has started the year slow as he’s been wild in both starts allowing a total of 6 walks. He gets the A’s today who aren’t very selective and will swing at his offerings. Good price for a pitcher with high K potential.
Top Stacks to Target:
BREWERS: Reds SP Nick Martinez has allowed 14 hits in his first two starts of 2024. Look for the Brewers bats to attack Martinez early. Still waiting on lineup cards but Yelich, Adames, Frelick and Hoskins will be bats I’ll look at.
RANGERS: The Rangers get to face JP Sears who has allowed 9 ER’s in his first two starts. The Rangers bats have been solid in this series with Oakland so far plating 17 runs. Look for Semien, Seager, Garcia, Carter and Langford.
BRAVES: Braves are always in play, especially on a short card. With Quintana taking the mound look at the RH bats in Atlanta’s lineup like Ozuna, Riley, Acuna and Albies.
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