Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We all know the big stage is set for Opening Day of the NFL Season. But there’s still some baseball to bet and DFS to be played. And as we roll into the last 3 weeks of the season, we’re seeing a few major stories develop. First, the Braves, with their loss to Toronto, fell out of a playoff spot and are now 1 game behind the charging Mets for the 3rd wild card in the NL. And don’t look now in the AL, but with Minnesota losing two straight, it’s brought some hope to Seattle and Detroit. Yes, the Detroit Tigers rallied to win yesterday in Oakland and cut their deficit to 4.5 games for the 3rd wild card. It’s astonishing but the Detroit Tigers are playing meaningful baseball in September! I’m sure Rob Manfred is somewhere smiling, though I’m not sure he deserves any credit.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -130 at MIAMI MARLINS
The Phillies six-game winning streak was snapped yesterday in Miami. Aaron Nola wasn’t sharp and then Rob Thompson threw in the white flag by handing the ball to Taijuan Walker who immediately came in and allowed an HR. So they’ll look to start another winning streak today and leave Miami with a series win. All while handing the ball to rookie SP Seth Johnson who will make his first career start. And his story is amazing which makes today a storyline waiting to happen.
Johnson was traded to Phillies from Baltimore at the deadline for RP Gregory Soto. At the time, Johnson was pitching at AA and not considered a high prospect for the O’s. But since the trade, he’s opened eyes in the Phillies organization and was called up to AAA two weeks ago. In the three starts he had for Lehigh Valley, he sizzled by going 2-0 with an 0.056 ERA. Who would have thought a kid that was a throw-in to an unhappy reliever that was being moved no matter what would be starting an MLB game less than 6 weeks after being traded.
I’m not 100% sure what we’ll get out of Johnson. But I do know Edward Cabrera and I do know the Phillies tend to hit well against him. Philadelphia’s projected starting lineup has a cumulative team batting average of 0.300 off of Cabrera in 60 career at-bats. They saw him 3 weeks ago and put up six runs in four innings of work. To get a lightly juiced line, because of the unknown with Johnson, is too good to pass up. Because the one thing I do know is that Cabrera can be completely wild and if that’s the case the Phillies bats will respond well enough to give their rookie a comfortable lead.
TBD
To be posted by 1230pm.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
PROP #1
Since August 18th, which is 2 weeks ago today, Lawrence Butler has scored 15 runs which leads all of baseball. And he’s batting 0.347 in that stretch. Add to that the A’s are likely facing a bullpen game from Texas and we have a plus environment in which runs should be scored.
PROP #2
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY –
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
GERRITT COLE ($9200 DK):
This must feel like the month of June for Cole as his delayed start to this season has him hitting his stride in September instead of the summer months. In his last 6 starts, Cole has allowed just 7 ER’s. He’s 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA in that stretch. And today he gets to face the Cubs who were extinguished yesterday by a combination of Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes. The latter threw 4.1 innings of no-hit ball in relief to get the win. So far in this series, Yankees pitching has 18 shut-out innings and has allowed just 5 total hits to Cubs batters. Which means Gerritt Cole is going into this game against a team that is befuddled at the plate. Add that to his recent strong play and we have a really good matchup for last year’s AL Cy Young.
CADEN DANA ($8000 DK):
The Angels called up Caden Dana last week and he pitched a gem in his MLB debut. Granted it was against Seattle but still the 20 year-old pitched 6 solid innings and came away with a win in his first ever start. What is most impressive, is that Dana skipped AAA and ascended right to the big leagues for this start. But as we’ve often heard, AA is where most of the major prospects reside and often considered the place where you make it or not. However, let’s fast-forward to today’s game against Texas. Now that nerves are out of the way, and he’s had five days of preparation for MLB batters, I expect to see the walks plummet (issued four in his first start) and his control to be sharper.
In the end, this is more about someone with a plus arm that MLB hitters do not have tape on. That is often an advantage to the pitcher. I can point out SP Tyler Phillips from the Phillies who threw a CGSO in his 3rd game and now can’t get out of the 1st inning. Hitters adjust and adapt and they will soon enough against Dana. But I’m betting that he has the upper hand today against a Rangers team that is 21st in batting average, 23rd in OPS and 25th in ISO on the season.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: CHRIS SALE ($11300 DK), JARED JONES ($8400 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
MILES MIKOLAS ($6300 DK)
It’s almost to the point that you have to play any pitcher against the Mariners. And Kyle Gibson proved that again yesterday as he pitched 6.2 shutout innings while striking out a season high nine batters. The crazy part is the Gibson had only one other start this season where he pitched at least five innings and allowed 0 runs, That’s the gift this awful Mariners offense can give you. The other good news is, Miles Mikolas has numbers that show positive regression as his FIP is 1.09 lower than his ERA.
HONORABLE MENTION: ANDREW HEANEY ($7600 DK), SETH JOHNSON ($7000 DK), KYLE FREELAND ($6400 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
PHILLIES:
The Phillies bats have been hot of late. In their current four-game series with Miami, they have scored 26 runs and racked up 40 hits. In September they are batting 0.302 which is good for 2nd best in baseball. They are 1st in ISO and 2nd in homeruns with 11. As mentioned in the betting piece, they also hit SP Edward Cabrera very well. I’ll look to get bats like Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper as long as I can afford it. I’ll also look at bottom of the order options like Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens.
Other Stacks to Consider: RED SOX, METS
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