Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. The NFL takes center stage with Week 2 today. But there’s still baseball playing, and important baseball that is. In the AL, two divisions are still up for grabs and the last wild card has three teams fighting for one spot. In the NL, the Padres haven’t left the rear view mirror of the Dodgers and are only 3.5 games out in the West. While the Mets and Braves are tied for the last wild card spot in the NL. It’s going to be an exciting final two weeks in the MLB!
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -135 vs TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Rays have taken two of the first three games in their four-game set with Cleveland this weekend. And it’s allowed Kansas City to creep within three games of the AL Central lead. So every game is vitally important for Cleveland who is also vying for a first round bye in the playoffs.
Simply put, this one is about Rays SP Taj Bradley. Over his last 8 starts, he is 0-6 with an 8.56 ERA. And Tampa Bay is 1-7 in those eight starts. I like Bradley and think he can be a solid #2 SP in this league. But he is in a bad stretch and he’s letting up the longball on the regular. That should sit well with a Cleveland team that has 16 homers in September which is good for 6th best in baseball.
TBD
To be posted by 1230pm.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
PROP #1
TBD
PROP #2
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY –
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 7.
Top Pitchers to Target:
MACKENZIE GORE ($9000 DK):
It’s eye opening that a pitcher with an 8-12 record and 4.52 ERA owns the top salary on the board today. But after you peel back the slate, you understand there is value in Gore today even at a somewhat inflated price. First off, Gore has pitched to bad luck almost all season. His 4.32 ERA is actually met with a solid 3.67 FIP and 3.98 xFIP. And most of those stats are skewed because of his 0.357 BABIP which leads the league, by a landslide (Patrick Corbin is next at 0.336).
Then there’s the Miami Marlins who are battling the Colorado Rockies for worst record in the National League (they hold a 2 game lead). In September, they are batting 0.244 as a team which is 16th in baseball. But they are last in homeruns (7), 23rd in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. Additionally, they are striking out at a 25.6% clip which is 5th highest.
Finally, Gore has seen the Marlins twice this season and has a 1.38 ERA and 1-0 record. That includes 19 K’s in 13 innings pitched. If he even comes close to those performances, he’ll challenge 2.5-3x value and be well worth his price tag.
CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ ($8200 DK):
There are some pitchers in the league that are champions at home and away splits. Wearing that crown this year is the Phillies All Star SP, Cristopher Sanchez. Let’s just get a quick glance at his home and away numbers:
- HOME SPLITS: 7-3 record, 2.11 ERA, 2 complete games, 0.220 OBA, 8.1 K/9
- ROAD SPLITS: 3-6 record, 5.13 ERA, 0 complete games, 0.314 OBA, 6.3 K/9
He’s obviously two different pitchers depending on the location. And today we get the good Sanchez as he takes the mound in Citizens Bank Park where the Phillies and Mets finish off an important 3-game series.
Obviously the above splits puts Sanchez on the map. But to add some other confidence, the Mets are batting just 0.222 in September. However, they are in the top 10 in runs scored based on an OPS of 1.010 and batting average of 0.280 with runners in scoring position. They also have a 24% K rate this month which plants them 9th highest in September. While they’ve been one of baseball’s hottest teams, and do bat well against LHP’s, I think there’s enough here to give us confidence in an $8200 pitcher.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: JARED JONES ($8700 DK), BRADY SINGER ($8300 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
JP SEARS ($7800 DK)
Sears has been better of late, pitching at least 6 innings in three straight starts. Two of those resulted in quality starts. He’s also been much better on the road this year sporting a 3.55 ERA (vice 4.92 at home). This includes an opponent batting average of 0.227 which is 43 points lower on than his home rate.
There’s also the matchup as he takes on the worst team in baseball. Oakland shutout the White Sox on Friday but did allow seven runs yesterday. But Sears faced the Sox once this season and pitched 7 innings allowing just 3 hits and 1 run. There’s a lot to like here from road splits to opponent to past performance. And for that reason, I’m confidently backing the A’s lefty today in Chicago.
HONORABLE MENTION: SEAN BURKE ($4000 DK), ADAM OLLER ($7900 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
GUARDIANS:
The Rays are content to let Taj Bradley take the ball every 5 days and finish out the season in hopes to build on his confidence going into 2025. The issue is, the confidence can’t be too high based on his last 2 months of performances. In his last 8 starts, he hasn’t allowed less than 3 ER’s in a game. In that stretch, he is 0-6 with a 8.56 ERA with 12 homeruns allowed.
So I’ll confidently take Guardians bats today when they take the field in Cleveland. Both Lane Thomas and Josh Naylor have put up solid numbers in September and will be in my stack which will center around Jose Ramirez. I’ll also look at Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and Kyle Manzardo. If David Fry gets the start he will be a candidate as well.
Other Stacks to Consider: PHILLIES, BLUE JAYS, CARDINALS
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.
