Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We have an awesome day of sports lined up and the WDS team has you covered. We have the final day of the PGA Championship and several of our experts bets (including mine with Morikawa) are still alive for a big payday. There are also two Game 7’s in the NBA as the Pacers and Knicks as well as the Twolves and Nuggets vie for the league championship series. But between all that, we have a great slate of MLB action. For DFS, there are no pitchers above $10K so we’ll have a chance to balance out some really strong bats today. And that will be the key to our screens turning green. So happy Sunday Win Daily family, and let’s go get it.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BOSTON RED SOX -130 at ST LOUIS CARDINALS
The Cardinals have won the first two games in their series against the Red Sox as they look for the sweep today in St Louis. But the odds, and the trends, are against them in this one. First off, we have Nick Pivetta going for the Sox. He’s coming off a 5.2 inning game where he struck out 8 batters. Today will be his 3rd start since returning from the IL. But so far this season, in three of his four starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s or less. His lone blemish was against the mighty Braves where he allowed 3 home runs and 5 ER. However, the Cardinals are far from the Braves ranking 26th in ISO and 26th in home runs (37).
And then there’s the fact that the Red Sox are good in day games, especially on Sunday. Boston is 11-6 in the sun and 7-0 on Sunday’s. The Cardinals are the opposite, going 6-12 in day games and 1-6 on Sunday’s. And while St Louis has won 5 of 6, they haven’t swept a series all year. I don’t see that starting today against a quality SP and a team that plays well on Sunday’s.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -120 vs MINNESOTA TWINS
There are several teams going for a sweep today, and of all of those I like the Guardians the best (outside of New York and Philly who are -200 faves or worse). The Twins are a story of streaks. They won 12 in a row to get back in the AL Central race. And now they’re on a 5-game losing streak. Following the two losses in this series, Minnesota is now 0-4 against Cleveland this year. Add to that, they’ve already been swept twice on this young season.
As for Cleveland, the bats wake up when Tanner Bibee pitches. The Guardians have scored 55 runs in Bibee’s nine starts which makes that an average of 6 runs per game. And that’s a big reason why they are 8-1 when Bibee gets the ball. Cleveland also excels in day games, sporting a shiny record of 12-3.
DOG OF THE DAY: TAMPA BAY RAYS -105 at TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Rays are the slightest of dogs today. But after taking some big dogs earlier this week and coming home with L’s, we’re looking to dial this one into the safer range. Tampa has won the first two games of this series in dramatic fashion. Yesterday, they had to comeback from a 4-run deficit to win by a score of 5-4. And on Friday, they held on for a tight 4-3 victory after getting out to a three-run lead. That makes it four wins in a row for Tampa, all by the slimmest of margins.
The Jays, on the other hand, are a mess. They are dead last in the AL East and are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They hand the ball to Alek Manoah today which is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get. Manoah got rocked in his first start versus Washington but shined in his second outing against the Twins. His velocity is up from last year but still not near his All Star form of 2022. I’m going to bank on the bad Manoah today as the Jays are 0-2 in his starts and his FIP is 1.5 runs higher than his 4.91 ERA.
PLAYER PROPS
BRADY SINGER over 5.5 K’s (-160 DK)
The A’s have the highest K rate over the past 10 games, striking out at a 28.4% clip. And Singer can rack up the K’s as he has a K/9 at 9.24.
TANNER BIBEE over 5.5 K’s (-130) and over 16.5 outs (-130)
Bibee struck out nine Twins batters when he faced them earlier in the season. And the Twins have been in the top 10 in K rate all season meaning not much has changed in plate discipline. The second part of this bet is somewhat risky as Bibee has only gone over 16.5 outs twice in seven starts. But as mentioned above, the Twins bats are quiet. During their current five game losing streak, they’ve scored just 7 runs which includes two shutouts.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:10PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 11.
Top Pitchers to Target:
BRADY SINGER ($9200 DK):
Singer has shown to be a much better pitcher at home so far this season. His home splits are a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA. While his road numbers show an 0-1 record and a 4.20 ERA. He’s also much better in the day time, as he’s 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in four starts during the day. And we haven’t even talked about his opponent, the Oakland A’s, who are 28th in batting average on the season at 0.219.
TANNER BIBEE ($8200 DK):
Bibee has nine starts under his belt and saw the Twins in one of those. It turned out to be his 2nd best outing of the year so far as he pitched 5.1 innings allowing just 1 ER while striking out 9 batters. And the Twins bats have regressed of late as they are batting just 0.218 over the past 10 games. That number is good for 26th in the league. Add to that they have a top 10 strikeout rate in the MLB at 23.7%.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: CARLOS RODON ($8800 DK), NICK PIVETTA ($8000 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
AARON CIVALE ($7500 DK)
Civale has pitched into some poor luck. His 5.83 ERA is met with a 4.33 FIP. That is the second highest ERA-FIP differential on the board today. And if you look at his other advanced, predictive, metrics they’re even better. His xFIP is 3.47 and SIERA is 3.55. So we’re headed towards brighter days with Aaron Civale and I see that starting today against a Blue Jays team that is 29th in runs scored this year.
HONORABLE MENTION: JP SEARS ($6600 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
YANKEES:
The Yankees were the stack to have in the early slate yesterday as they hit four home runs, with two coming courtesy of Juan Soto. They face Chris Flexen today who is fly ball pitcher. In a short field, such as Yankees Stadium, I expect to see several balls reach the seats. Get creative but look at Soto, Judge, and Stanton. Other bats I’ll consider in this lineup are Verdugo, Volpe and Trevino.
PHILLIES:
Nationals SP Trevor Williams has been great this year. But his 1.94 ERA is met with a 4.15 SIERA. He will regress, and I’m betting that happens today in Philly. That’s because he’s had struggles against his rival from the north. Of the projected Phillies starters, the top 7 have a career 0.313 batting average against Williams. This includes 6 home runs from Kyle Schwarber. So start the stack with Schwar-bomb, and add the likes of Bohm, Harper, Stott and Marsh. Bryson You could go cheap and grab Kody Clemens who has been hot for the Phillies since being called up.
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