Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Magic Monday here at Win Daily Sports. After yesterday’s beat down, 1-4 in MLB bets, we need a new week. It’s not often we have a day like that so I’m anxious to see the turnaround tonight. Still hitting at over 61% in MLB bets has given us a good profit on the year. On the other hand, the DFS market was good to us as we recommended the top SP on the board in Bailey Ober. The Twins SP shutdown the Blue Jays offense and racked up 10 K’s enroute to a 37.65 DK point game.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
ST LOUIS CARDINALS -110 at LOS ANGELES ANGELS
It really is amazing to see how bad the St Louis Cardinals are. They vowed to fix their pitching woes in the offseason. And while it’s been somewhat better, as they’ve lowered their staff ERA by 0.5 runs (4.83 in 2023 to 4.30 in 2024), it’s the hitting that is letting this team down. The Cardinals are batting 0.220 which is 28th in baseball. They’re also 28th in OPS, 27th in ISO and 29th in runs scored. Tonight, they travel to face the Angels who are also sitting in the basement in their Division. But the difference is, no one is really surprised the Angels are bottom dwellers in the AL West.
Why I’m leaning to the Cards tonight in LA is simply their bullpen. The Cards have Matt Liberatore scheduled to start and he’s not expected to last long as he last pitched on Friday in Milwaukee (and has been a reliever all season). While their bullpen is 15th in the league with a 4.00 ERA, their xFIP is 2nd overall at 3.32 and their FIP is 7th at 3.52. They also have pitcher’s with high K rates as their reliever’s are 5th with a 25.1% strikeout rate.
Also, the Cards are at least decent on the road (10-13) while LA has the worst home record in the league at 5-14.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS -130 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The main reason I went 1-4 yesterday was because I took the wrong “bad” team to sweep a series. The White Sox looked like they had value but failed to score a run off of Cleveland and Logan Allen. While the Rockies pitching once again dominated Texas by allowing just 1 ER to the Rangers. So now I look for the baseball world to spin on it’s axis again and realign itself. Which means I’m back to fading the White Sox, early and often.
The story here is Nationals SP Trevor Williams and the Nats. Washington’s SP has been solid this year and the Nats are 6-1 in his starts. On the flip side, Chicago is 0-6 on Monday nights. So let’s back the Nats tonight and see if Trevor Williams can keep his hot streak alive.
DOG OF THE DAY: CLEVELAND GUARDIANS +105 at TEXAS RANGERS
The Guardians broke the curse of the White Sox yesterday getting a much needed victory before traveling to Texas to take on the Rangers. And what do you know, as mentioned above the Rangers come into this one after being swept by the lowly Rockies in Coors Field.
But this one tonight is about Guardians SP Tanner Bibee. His 2-1 record and 4.91 ERA does not open your eyes. But his xFIP is 3.72 and SIERA is 3.58 showing their is positive regression ahead. Also, the Guardians hit for Bibee as they are 7-1 in his starts. Finally, Cleveland has the 2nd most road wins in the MLB with 13, trailing Milwaukee (14) and the New York Yankees (14).
PLAYER PROPS
CORBIN BURNES over 17.5 outs (-160 DK)
Until Toronto’s bats wake up, I’m going to attack SP’s against them. Burnes has gone over this number in 3 straight starts and four of his last six. And the Blue Jays had both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober pitch 7 innings against them this weekend.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY over 4.5 K’s (-110 DK)
The Reds just saw Montgomery and struck out just twice against him. But it was his best performance of the year so I expect the Reds to be a little more patient tonight and work deeper counts. That will go in Montgomery’s favor as the Reds have the 4th highest team K rate in the MLB.
SEAN MANAEA over 1.5 walks (-150 DK)
Phillies have the 5th highest walk rate in the majors at 9.8%. The Mets SP has a 12.5% walk rate of his own. I expect Phillies hitters, especially lefties, to take pitches tonight as Manaea is tough against them.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – BOBBY WITT over 0.5 HR’s (+390 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 7:10PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 12.
Top Pitchers to Target:
YOSHI YAMAMOTO ($10,500 DK):
Yamamoto has not disappointed. Well outside of his first game, he has not disappointed. Since that opening day start, the Dodgers SP has a 1.75 ERA and is 4-0. He also has 45 K’s in 41 innings pitched while flashing a 27.8% K rate. The one thing that has bit Yoshi is the homerun ball as he’s allowed five on the season including two in his last start. But that shouldn’t matter tonight as the Giants are 22nd in home runs and 23rd in runs scored.
KUTTER CRAWFORD ($8600 DK):
Crawford hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in a start this season His 1.75 ERA is good for 5th best in baseball. And he’s facing a Tampa Bay team that is 20th in runs scored this season. But that gets worse on the road as they are 29th in runs scored away from their home in Tampa.
TANNER BIBEE ($8400 DK):
This is my favorite arm on the slate, similar to how I felt about Bailey Ober yesterday. For one, Bibee’s numbers show positive regression ahead (as mentioned above). Next, he’s 4th on the slate in K rate with a 26% number. Finally, the Rangers are coming off a series in Colorado where they scored a total of 6 runs. Back the Guardians starter with confidence tonight.
Value Pitchers to Target:
JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($7500 DK)
The Reds K rate is always an attractive target. But their other metrics drop when they face LHP’s. Which makes this even more appealing. The Reds bat just 0.213 (27th) against lefties and are 24th in OPS. And Montgomery is headed for better days as he is last on the slate in K rate at a measly 10.1%. Last season he had a 21.4% K rate and his career number is 22.1%.
HONORABLE MENTION: TREVOR WILLIAMS ($7300 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
PADRES:
The Padres get the softest matchup on the board tonight when they step in the box to face Rockies SP Dakota Hudson. Their projected starters have a 0.326 batting average in 53 at-bats against Hudson. Manny Machado alone is 0.500 with 2 home runs. So, start the stack with Manny and Tatis, and look for Kim and Profar to be in the mix as well.
NATIONALS:
White Sox SP Chris Flexen is a gas can. And you know what to do with those, light ’em up! So the Nats will have that opportunity tonight in Chicago. Eddie Rosario is batting 0.417 in the month of May so we’ll look to stack around the former Brave. I also like Abrams, Garcia, Winker, and Ruiz.
ASTROS:
Ross Stripling has pitched well this year. And he has good career numbers against Houston. But someone like Yordan Alvarez, who is 0 for 8 in his career off Stripling, cannot be held down much longer. In fact, over the past 7 days, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and 8th in slugging. This team is starting to heat up so I’ll look to stack Alvarez, Tucker, and Altuve. I’ll also look to get cheap with Dubon, Myers or Cabbage.
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