Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Easter Sunday for those who celebrate. But it’s really happy first Sunday of the 2024 MLB season. The weather is always a question mark this time of year, but it looks like we should be able to play ball in all 15 home locations today. And so far we’ve seen weather play no role in the bats of the Braves and Orioles who have touched double digit runs in both their games played. Yesterday was a tale of the dogs barking as we saw three underdogs of +150 or more win outright.
This year, both Jared and I will be posting articles and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
It’s no surprise that some of the better teams have started hot straight out of the gates. But there are some surprises early including Pittsburgh and the Yankees taking the first 3 games of their series against 2023 playoff teams.
MIAMI MARLINS -130 vs PITTSBURGH PIRATES
I wasn’t high on the Marlins heading into this season as they outperformed their metrics last year. And then they suffered injuries to their best position, starting pitching, heading into the year. But just about no one outside of Pittsburgh saw the Pirates taking the first 3 games of this series, And now they go for the improbable, a 4 game sweep in Miami today.
The difference between starting pitchers today is wide enough that we are getting value at the -130 price. Bailey Falter finished last year with a 2-9 record and a 5.36 ERA. Over 80 innings he posted a 0.4 WAR. The Marlins SP, Trevor Rodgers, missed almost all last season but put up a similar WAR (0.3) in just 18 innings. Rodgers also posted a sub 2.6 ERA in 2021 and has the pedigree to return to that form.
PROJECTED LINE: Marlins -145
SAN DIEGO PADRES -135 vs SAN FRANCICSO GIANTS
The Padres are rolling out SP Michael King today in the final game of their series with the Giants. King is the prized piece they got in the trade with the Yankees for Juan Soto. He finished last season on a strong note. King posted a 1.30 ERA in seven September starts. The Giants are starting a castaway from the A’s today in Daulton Jeffries. He moved just a few miles but must seem night and day as the Giants have potential to make the playoffs this year. For what it’s worth, he’ll need to show more than he did with the A’s to stay in the rotation with the Giants as he finished with a 1-7 record and 5.72 ERA last year.
PROJECTED LINE: Padres -150
DOG OF THE DAY: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +125 vs ATLANTA BRAVES
The Phillies have been humiliated in the first two games of their series with Atlanta being outscored 21-7. But they call on their Braves killer to try and salvage a game in the series. SP Ranger Suarez pitched in three games against Atlanta last year and gave up just 2 ER’s on his way to a 1.22 ERA. As for the Braves, they are starting Chris Sale who is somewhat of an enigma. Will we see the pitcher who has a career 3.10 ERA? Or the one that went just 17-17 in the past 4 seasons with an ERA over 4.0? Based on the way this series has been played it’s no surprise 90% of the money and bets are on the Braves. But I’ll fade the public here and play the Fightins.
PROJECTED LINE: Phillies +110
PLAYER PROPS
TYLER WELLS over 4.5 K’s (-110 DK)
If there’s one thing the Angels have showed us, outside of them being bad at all aspects of baseball, it’s that they have a ton of K’s in their lineup. Even contact hitters like Anthony Redon have caught the K bug. The Halos have struck out 27 times in the first two games.
BYRON BUXTON over 1.5 H+R+R (-155 DK) & over 1.5 total bases (+110 DK)
Buxton always starts the season hot. And he gets to do so today against Brady Singer who he is 7 for 13 off of in his career.
PLUS MONEY PROP OF THE DAY: JOSH BELL over 0.5 HR’s (+550 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Bell is always a home run threat but even more so today facing soft tossing Bailey Falter. We talk more about him below in the Marlins stack, but Falter had high HR metrics last year (1.90 / 9 innings) and a 39% FB rate.
DFS
Top Pitchers to Target:
BAILEY OBER ($9000 DK): Best matchup on the board for the higher salaried pitchers. Ober is coming off his best season as a pro where he posted a 3.43 ERA and 2.4 WAR.
JACK FLAHERTY ($8900 DK): He is priced high but facing one of the worst offenses in the league. We saw the success that Skubal had on Opening Day as the Sox managed just 3 hits and scored none. Flaherty had a strong end to spring training and is a high volume strike out pitcher when healthy.
CHRIS SALE ($8800 DK): Even though I’m taking the Phillies, Sale is the perfect type of DFS play for tournaments. He’s going to either break 20 or put up negative points. Based on how the Phillies are hitting to date, he’s going to have potential for going over his K prop and putting up a good day for DFS.
TYLER WELLS ($8300 DK): As mentioned in the Prop write up, the Angels are a mess at the plate and we’ll look for this to continue all year. They have almost no speed, and tons of K’s. Wells should be in line for a 2x value start.
RANGER SUAREZ ($8000 DK): We highlighted Ranger’s success against Atlanta. He also had a great spring and finally can start a season healthy. He’ll likely be on the lower side of ownership because it’s against the Braves which could pay off for those willing to risk it.
NICK MARTINEZ ($6800 DK): I always like Martinez’s stuff but he couldn’t put it together for big stretches in San Diego. But he posted a solid 3.43 ERA last season and averaged almost 1 K/inning. He’s got he best value and you all know I like to look in the below $7K range for arms.
Top Stacks to Target:
MIAMI MARLINS: I’m looking to attack Bailey Falter in both the betting market and DFS market. He doesn’t strike out people and allows almost 1.5 batters to reach base per inning. Josh Bell is 5 for 6 with 2 home runs off Falter. And De La Cruz also has success with two career home runs in 7 at bats off the Pirates LHP. I’ll also look to get Burger, Chisholm and Garcia in my lineups to create a mixed middle of the order stack.
MINNESOTA TWINS: Several Twins have awesome numbers off Royals SP Brady Singer. Both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have batting averages over 0.500 off Singer (with 10+ at bats). Castro and Kepler have 3 combined homers off Singer so they’re in play too.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES: Reid Detmers had a solid season and posted the 3rd best WAR of today’s starters. But the O’s feast off LHP’s and have scored 24 runs in two games so far this year. I’d look at the top of the lineup and righties like Henderson (yes he bats left but has good splits of LHP), Mountcastle, Rutschman and Santander. Hays and Westburg are in my player pool. You could also look at McCann and Mateo if you want to wrap bottom to Henderson and Adley.
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