Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We’ve been hot of late, hitting both our game bets yesterday with the Phillies and Guardians coming through. Speaking of the Phillies, the MLB International series is getting ready to play Game 2 over in London today as the Mets and Phillies are putting on a display overseas. If you didn’t see yesterday’s game, the field is extremely bouncy and we could see a lot of runs today with Walker and Quintana on the pitch. So I’m betting the over this morning as I prepare this MLB article for you today.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -140 at TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Orioles are looking to take their 3rd straight game against the Rays today in Tampa. The key to the series so far has been their pitching, as the O’s have allowed just 2 ER’s in the first two games of this series. Today, they hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez who has come back from the IL to win two of three while posting a 2.66 ERA. He faced the Rays three times last season and was 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA.
The other factor is the Rays have been struggling against the AL East, losing eight of their last nine games against their Division rivals. And the Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. So I’ll look for those two streaks to continue today and Baltimore to setup a potential 4-game sweep on Monday.
ATLANTA BRAVES -165 at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
It’s hard to explain, but the Nationals have been giving the Braves fits over the past 2 weeks by winning 5 of 7 versus the reigning NL East Champs. While the loss of Spencer Strider was damaging to the Braves, they’ve looked more lost since losing Ronald Acuna to an ACL Tear. Atlanta is now 5-7 since losing their star RF, and have scored 3 runs or less in seven of those twelve games.
But I like the Braves to ramp it up today and come away with a split in their four-game series with Washington. For one, the Nats are throwing LHP DJ Hertz who is starting for the 2nd time in his career. In his first start, he was tagged for 7 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings of work. Secondly, the Braves have hit LHP’s better than they have RHP’s; with a 0.252 BA vs lefties and 0.242 BA vs righties. And that translates to their better hitters as well as Ozuna, Albies, Harris and Olson all have better splits against LHP’s.
I also like the fact that the Braves have won 8 of their last 9 following a loss in Washington. That one loss was yesterday, and I don’t see that happening twice in the same weekend.
DOG OF THE DAY: OAKLAND ATHLETICS +105 vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
For our dog of the day, we go to a team that’s been good to us in this role and that is the Oakland A’s. While they’ve fallen on hard times of late, losing seven of their last ten, they are good in the role of a small dog. When they have odds of +105 to +100, they are 4-1 outright. Today they hand the ball to Mitch Spence who has recently been stretched out from the bullpen to starter. And he’s fared well as a starter posting a 3.31 ERA in four starts.
But the main reason I lean towards Oakland is because of Toronto’s predicted pitching today. They will start Bowden Francis, who owns a 9.00 ERA in 18 innings pitched. He’s also allowed a staggering six home runs in that small sample size of innings pitched. If he struggles early, Toronto will turn to a bullpen that is 29th in ERA. Give me the better pitching today, who is also giving us plus money.
PLAYER PROPS
TYLER GLASNOW over 7.5 K’s (+115 BET365)
Glasnow has an impressive 33.5% K rate this season, and he leads the MLB with 104 strikeouts. He brings that arsenal to NY tonight, where he’ll face a Yankees team that is striking out more of late. In this series alone, Yamamoto had 7 K’s against the Yankees and Gavin Stone had 6 K’s. Leading the charge is Giancarlo Stanton who is 0 for 10 with 4 K’s in this series.
BAILEY OBER over 5.5 K’s (-115 DK)
Ober hasn’t exceeded this number in his past 4 games. But that’s because all four of those opponents are in the bottom 6 in the MLB in K rate. That all changes today when Ober takes the mound against the Pirates who have the 5th highest K rate in baseball. Ober has faced only one other team with a top 5 strikeout rate, and that was Seattle who he was able to strikeout seven times.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:05PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:05pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 10.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TARIK SKUBAL ($10,500 DK):
The Tigers ace is 7-1 on the season with a 1,97 ERA. The latter is the 5th best in baseball and top 3 in the AL. Today, he gets a Milwaukee team who has a 0.240 average over the past week. The Brew Crew had their bats wake up in this current series with Detroit, but when they saw top level pitching earlier this week they scored just 2 runs in 3 games against the Phillies. I expect a top level pitcher in Skubal to give the Brewers similar fits to what Aaron Nola (7 inning, 0 ERs) and Zack Wheeler (7 innings, 1 ER) did to them earlier this week.
JARED JONES ($9300 DK):
Outside of Skubal, Jones is my favorite arm at the top of the pitching roster today. In his last outing, Jared Jones bounced back from his worst start to throw one of his best when he shut out the Dodgers over 6 innings. Today, he gets the Twins who are batting just 0.195 since June 1st. They also have a 25% K rate which ranks in the top 5 this month. That should matchup well with Jones’ 27.5% K rate.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ ($9500 DK), NATHAN EOVALDI ($8600 DK), BAILEY OBER ($8000 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
FRANKIE MONTAS ($7500 DK)
Montas pitched a gem in his last outing, where he threw 7 shut out innings with 9 K’s against the Rockies in Colorado. That’s one reason to gamble on Montas today but the other is his opponent, the Chicago Cubs. Chicago is batting just 0.221 this month with a 24.5% K rate. They’ve also lost the first 3 games in this series scoring just 9 total runs.
HONORABLE MENTION: ANDRE PALLANTE ($7000 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
BRAVES:
The Braves right-handed bats should feast today against the Nats LHP DJ Herz. That’s because Washington’s SP allowed three extra base hits to RH bats in his first outing, including one home run. And although the Mets just batted one LH bat, that hitter went 1 for 2 with a walk. So all bats are in play today for me but I’ll look to circle a stack around Ozuna, Olson and Riley.
RED SOX:
The Red Sox have been on a tear batting 0.285 and slugging 0.484 this month, both in the top 5 of baseball. They get to face Chris Flexen today who owns a 5.19 ERA and has given up 8 homers on the season. We’ll look at batters such as Rafael Devers (0.320 BA / 3 homers in June), Jaren Duran (0.345 BA / 2 homers in June) and Tyler O’Neil (0.500 BA in June). Other batters to look at are Emmanuel Valdez, Connor Wong and Ceddanne Rafaela.
Other Stacks to Consider: CLEVELAND GUARDIANS, TEXAS RANGERS
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