Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We are finally seeing some much-needed rain across the country. But it’s also impacting our MLB games and DFS lineups with last minute postponements. So, keep an eye out for the weather as the east coast games all have potential for impactful delays or even rain outs.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
GAME 1: NEW YORK YANKEES -115 at TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Yankees have certainly been in the front of the newspapers of late. Whether it’s been their poor play, or pitchers yelling at their fielders (Stroman vs Torres), the Yankees have been good press for the New York media. But today they turn to one of their stalwarts in Gerrit Cole. The 2023 AL Cy Young winner returned to action with a solid start against the Orioles. But then he got rouged up by the Mets in his next outing, allowing 4 home runs. It was just the second time in his career he allowed four homers and recorded no strikeouts. I expect the dogmatic RHP to use that as motivation to fix what is wrong and turn in a gem today. Afterall, he is 8-2 with a 2.77 ERA versus the Blue Jays in his career.
And besides that, while the Toronto offense has scored 9 runs in three of its last four games, they had lost 7 in a row before that stretch. Additionally, they are 3-8 ATS as a home underdog and just 14-22 ML after a win.
While the Yankees have struggled as well, losing 8 of 10 and having not won a series in two weeks. New York is clearly the better team, and they are mostly healthy in the lineup, so I see them stepping up their game behind Cole and leaving Toronto with a split.
GAME 2: BALTIMORE ORIOLES -160 vs TEXAS RANGERS
The Orioles and Rangers are headed in two different directions. On one hand, Texas has lost 6 in a row and dropped to 9 games under 0.500 for the first time this season. On the other side, Baltimore has won 4 games in a row and taken sole possession of 1st place in the AL East over the Yankees. More importantly, Baltimore has won the first two games in this series with both coming by just 1 run. But it shows the fortitude that a winning team currently has over one struggling to recapture their magic from last year’s World Series title.
But the primary reason I’m going with the O’s today is they lead the league in home runs. And they get to face Andrew Heaney who has a propensity for surrendering the long ball. Heaney is just 2-9 this season and has allowed 12 homers, including at least one in four straight games. And the Rangers are just 4-12 in his 16 starts. The O’s role out Cole Irvin who has a respectable 3.74 ERA and pitches much better at home (3.38 ERA vs 4.26 on road) and in the day (2.88 ERA vs 4.71 at night).
DOG OF THE DAY: CLEVELAND GUARDIANS +110 at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Cleveland SP Logan Allen has not been very good this year from an ERA standpoint (5.72). But the Guardians somehow win when he pitches, as evidenced by their 10-6 record when Allen starts. His advanced, predictive, metrics also show there is some positive regression ahead as his SIERA and xFIP are more than 1 run lower than his current ERA. The Guardians SP’s biggest issue has been the home run ball, allowing 18 on the season, and often that can be predicted to level out (his HR/FB is 18.4% compared to 12% last year and 9% in AAA).
Then we look at the Royals metrics against LHP’s of late and see they are batting just 0.143 in the past 10 games against southpaws. They are also striking out at a 42.9% clip in that same span. Add to that, Royals SP Seth Lugo got roughed up in his one start against Cleveland, where he allowed 5 ER’s in 6 innings of work.
PLAYER PROPS
FREDDY PERALTA over 7.5 K’s (+100 BET365)
The Cubs are whiffing at a prolific rate in the past week, posting a 28.8% K rate. They faced Peralta in Milwaukee last month and struck out 11 times versus the Brewers SP. In fact, in 114 at-bats, the current Cubs hitters strike out at a 37.5% clip against Peralta. While a big number, but as long as he gets to 6 innings we should have no problem cashing this ticket.
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
RANGER SUAREZ ($10,500 DK):
The league leaders in wins and ERA takes the mound today for the Phillies. Ranger Suarez has a 1.83 ERA and 10 wins on the season, but yet he’s only recorded one win in his last six starts. And he’s pitched well in that stretch but has just hit that proverbial bump in the road as his stats have now regressed towards his mean. Which brings us to today and the biggest reason to invest in Ranger is his opponent, the Miami Marlins. The team from South Florida is last in almost every critical batting category versus left-handed pitching; OPS, ISO, wRC+ and wOBA (to name a few). They also lost one game in this series which was to a similar lefty, Cristopher Sanchez. In that game, Sanchez threw a complete game shutout, the first in his career. Finally, Suarez faced these Marlins earlier this season and registered 7 shutout innings for a 34.4 DK point output.
GARRETT CROCHET ($10,200 DK):
The White Sox have won three in a row coming into today’s game against Colorado. And they’ll look for a sweep while handing the ball to their best pitcher. Crochet has some great stats including 130 K’s which is 2nd in the league trailing on Tyler Glasnow. But his most impressive line may just be that he is 6-6 while pitching for the worst team in baseball. Except for a three-game stretch in April, Crochet has allowed 2 runs or in 13 of his 14 starts. And he’s been red hot over the past two months by posting a 5-2 record and 1.35 ERA in 10 starts. And today he gets a Rockies team which has significant split differentials between home and away. On the road they bat just 0.226 which is 25th in baseball (0.265 at home). And looking at runs, they average 4.9 runs/game at home but just 3.6 runs/game on the road. So while the White Sox will starts ramping down Crochet’s workload, that will not factor into today’s game and is more impactful for season long fantasy. That means ride the White Sox ace as long as we can, and especially today against a team that struggles on the road.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: FREDDIE PERALTA ($9800), HUNTER GREENE ($8500 DK), TAJ BRADLEY ($8200 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
JOSH WINCKOWSKI ($6500 DK)
The Red Sox are electing to give Bryan Bello extra rest which means they’re giving Josh Winckowski a spot start today in Boston. In his last outing, he came in relief for Bello and pitched six strong innings while striking out 8. Today he gets a tough matchup with the Padres as they do not strike out at a high rate and have scored 20 runs in the first two game in their series with Boston. But there’s some mystery in a relief pitcher coming into a starting spot. And Winckowski has made three other starts this year and allowed just 2 ER’s over 10.2 innings. So in a pinch, he’s flashed success. And for this price he’s worth the play as we just need a solid 13-15 DK points to return 2+ value.
HONORABLE MENTION: LOGAN ALLEN ($6200 DK) – NOTE KCR is batting 0.143 vs LHP’s in last 10 games.
Top Stacks to Target:
RAYS:
I really did consider putting Patrick Corbin in my player pool. But then I saw Tampa’s recent stats against LHP’s which show they are batting 0.321 with an 0.897 OPS over the past 10 days. And on the season, they’re in the middle of the pack with a 0.254 average against LHP’s. But as we know, Patrick Corbin isn’t a middle of the pack pitcher so my projections have Tampa bats rated very high today. I’ll look at strong RH bats like Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, and Richie Palacios. But I’ll also consider Josh Lowe, Amed Rosario and Jose Caballero.
METS:
The Mets are playing great baseball and are being carried by an offense that is batting 0.315 over the past 2 weeks. They get a bullpen game today as Houston is electing to start Shawn Dubin. I’ll look to get the red hot Matt Vientos (4 homers in 5 games) as well as Francisco Alvarez (0.444 in last 6 games) in my stack. Then I’ll look to mix in Pete Alonso, Harrison Bader, Francisco Lindor and JD Martinez.
Other Stacks to Consider: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, MILWAUKEE BREWERS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.
