Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We’ve had a good weekend so far posting 2-0 with game bets on Discord. We’ll look to keep that going today as we have a full slate of great MLB matchups.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -145 vs SAN DIEGO PADRES
All teams go through funks at some point in this grueling long season. And the Orioles seem to be in that funk themselves as they’ve lost five of their last six games, including two to the feeble Marlins. If you date back even further, to right before the break, the O’s are 4-10 in their last 14 games.
But good teams, like Baltimore, will eventually break free of their funk and find their game. I’m banking on that happening today as Baltimore tries to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Padres. Firstly, the O’s face off against Randy Vasquez who struggles on the road. Vasquez has a 5.01 ERA away from San Diego. But it’s the 0.351 opponent’s batting average that is most eye-opening. And Baltimore is top-5 in the league in OPS, Slugging, ISO and wOBA against RHP’s.
The other thing to factor is the Padres are just 7-11 on Sunday games. And are just 1-7 in their last eight Sunday games. They’re also at the end of a nine-game road trip, where they are 7-1 with seven straight wins. I see a potential letdown spot as San Diego has their hated rivals in the Dodgers waiting for them when they arrive home in SD.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -190 vs MIAMI MARLINS
The Brewers have been shell shocked by the Marlins this weekend as they’ve lost the first two games by a combined score of 13 to 5. And this is coming from a team that is currently selling off all is assets and playing for 2025. Luckily for Milwaukee, their contenders in the NL Central have all lost multiple games so they have kept a comfortable 6 game lead in the division. But the key to today’s bet isn’t necessarily the sweep avoidance as it is fading the Marlins against LHPs. Their record is 5-31 when lefties start. And today the Brewers trot out LHP Tobias Myers who has a respectable 6-4 record with a 3.14 ERA. Opponents are batting just 0.234 against Myers but more importantly righties are just 0.193. Which plays right into the hands of Milwaukee as Miami is terrible against LHP’s batting just 0.229 on the season.
There’s also the fact that the Brewers are 29-19 at home and haven’t been swept in Milwaukee yet. And they’re awesome in day games, posting a 30-14 record, which is one of the best in baseball. Finally, Milwaukee has won six straight Sunday games which adds to the reasoning for backing the Brew Crew in their series finale today against Miami.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
BAILEY OBER over 5.5 K’s (-110 DK)
The Twins SP averages just over 9 K’s/9 this season. So doing the simple math would say we just need 6 innings to get to this number. And that’s great news as Ober has been on a role of late, pitching 6+ innings in six straight starts. Then we can factor in Detroit’s recent play which shows a K rate of 25.8% over the past 2 weeks, which is 5th highest in baseball.
AUSTIN HAYS over 1.5 H+R+R (+100 DK)
The newly acquired OF played his first game in Philly last night and performed well, going 1 for 4 with a run scored in his debut. And today he gets to face a LHP in Cleveland SP Joey Cantilo. Which is exactly why the Phillies traded for him. Hays hits 0.323 with an 0.881 OPS against southpaws. And the Phillies moved him up to 6th in the order today which implants him behind their big hitters upping his chances for an RBI.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 10.
Top Pitchers to Target:
COLE RAGANS ($10,000 DK):
Ragans is a perfect example of a pitcher that’s record doesn’t reflect their overall performance. And hence why wins have been vastly overlooked in recent Cy Young voting. He is 7-6 overall but owns a 3.23 ERA (21st) and has 146 Ks (6th). More importantly, his FIP is 2.75 showing he’s been somewhat letdown by his defense. But besides the reasons above, I like Ragans based on his matchup with the Cubs today in KC. Since the All Star Break, the Cubbies are 29th in runs scored (18), 29th in batting average, 28th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+. And they’re just 3-5 in that stretch which includes two shutouts. Add to that Ragans has a 1.96 ERA in day games and we have a great spot for a top arm on today’s slate.
TOBIAS MYERS ($8100 DK):
The Marlins started their fire sale this weekend as they shipped off OF Jazz Chisholm to the Yankees. However, that hasn’t impacted their play as they’ve taken the first two games in their series with Milwaukee and will look for the sweep today. But as mentioned in the betting section, the Marlins are awful against LHP’s. And guess what, Brewers SP Tobias Myers is a southpaw. Besides their putrid record against LHP’s, they are 28th in batting average, 30th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 30th in wOBA and 30th in wRC+ against lefties.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: BRYCE MILLER ($9400 DK), BAILEY OBER ($8500 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
MILES MIKOLAS ($6300 DK)
It’s a tale as old as time. Or maybe I just think Mikolas is as old as time. But somehow, the soft tossing SP from St Louis found his way and is back to his old ways of pitching good baseball in a meaningful run for the Cards. Mikolas has three quality starts in his last four outings, which includes a game against his opponent today in the Washington Nationals. In that start, he went 6.1 innings and allowed 0 ER’s posting 20.7 DK points. Additionally, Mikolas is trending upwards as his FIP and SIERA are both almost 1 run lower than his 5.02 ERA. As for the Nats, they have put up some runs since the break, but are just 18th in batting and 23rd in ISO. And they’re coming off two straight games of double digit runs, which has me seeing them come back down to reality today.
HONORABLE MENTION: DAVID PETERSON ($7200 DK), JON GRAY ($7500 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
PHILLIES:
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TWINS:
Other Stacks to Consider: LA DODGERS
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