Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. Today is the last day of baseball before the All Star Break. So we’ll look to build some winning lineups and cash a few winning tickets heading into the break.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
ST LOUIS CARDINALS -130 vs CHICAGO CUBS
The Cardinals swept a double header yesterday against the Cubs and look to keep that momentum going into today’s final game of a four-game series with their fierce rivals. And today they give the ball to Miles Mikolas who has been pitching well of late (as noted in the DFS paragraph below). The Cardinals are 7-3 in his last 10 starts and 2-0 when he starts against the Cubs.
Additionally, St Louis is 6-2 against Chicago this year, including 4-1 at home. The Cards have played good baseball in the past 2 months and are now just 3.5 games behind Milwaukee. The Cubs, on the other hand, have fallen to last place in the NL Central and are deciding whether the be buyers or sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. So I’ll back the hotter team, and one that has dominated the season series.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -150 vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Nationals are going for the sweep today in Milwaukee, and I’m betting they won’t get it done. While the Brew Crew is limping into the break, losing 3 consecutive series for the first time all year, they are a strong home team. With a 28-17 home record, they own the 3rd best home mark in the NL. And the Nats are not a great road team, sitting a 4-games under 0.500 away from home. Today, they face Jake Irvin, who has a solid 3.13 ERA. But that is somewhat misleading as his xFIP and SIERA are both closer to 4.00.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
PROP #1 TBD
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
NICK LODOLO ($9800 DK):
Lodolo was reinstated from the IL earlier this week and lasted only 3.2 innings against the Rockies. He struggled with control which ended up resulting in the Rockies connecting on two home runs. But he’ll look to get back on track today as he gets another favorable matchup when he faces the Marlins. Miami is batting just 0.233 this season which is good for 25th in baseball. And during the month of August, they are striking out at a high clip, 26.7%. And on the season they strike out at the 10th highest rate versus LHP’s, 22.4%. All this adds up to a potential 3x value day and the reason I am backing Lodolo.
MITCH KELLER ($9600 DK):
This is probably the best spot for a pitcher on today’s slate. Keller is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he went 8 innings and scored 25.2 DK points. And now he gets the White Sox, who have the worst team batting average in baseball as well as a top 10 K rate.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: RONEL BLANCO ($10,000 DK), JOSE QUINTANA ($7900 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
MILES MIKOLAS ($6900 DK)
The Cardinals SP has pitched well of late, going at least 6 innings in 8 of his last 9 starts. And two of those were against the Cubs as he’s averaged 19.5 DK points in those starts against the Cubbies. And his advanced metrics show he’s trending in a positive direction as his FIP is almost 1 run lower than his ERA.
HONORABLE MENTION: MICHAEL MERCADO ($7700 DK), RYAN PEPIOT ($7500 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
PHILLIES:
The Phillies lineup is almost fully healthy, and it showed yesterday as they got four home runs including one from Bryce Harper. And today they get to face an Oakland staff that has the 3rd worst ERA in baseball at 5.06. I’ll look to get the big batters in my lineup like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trae Turner and Alec Bohm. And we’ll mix in some of the cheaper options like Johan Rojas and Garrett Stubbs.
DODGERS:
Another team that is banged up but starting to get healthy are the LA Dodgers. They’ve hit well in their series with the Tigers, racking up 21 hits and 13 runs. Yesterday, the top of the order went 7 for 17 including two home runs. They are facing Kenta Maeda, who has a 7.26 ERA and hasn’t gotten out of the 4th inning in his last two starts. I’ll focus on the top of the order, with Ohtani and Freeman as the primary options. I’ll also look at Will Smith, Kiki Hernandez and Teoscar Hernandez to round out a solid stack.
Other Stacks to Consider: NEW YORK METS, CINCINNATI REDS
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