Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. For the first time since early April, we’ve had three straight losing days in the betting market. But the good news is, they’ve been small losses and something we can reverse quickly and even end the week with a profit. As for DFS, we’ve released some solid plays resulting in good returns. Just back on Thursday we highlighted Spencer Schwellenbach who ended up with a 30+ DK point performance returning almost 4x in value. We’ll look to see if we can find similar value today as the pitching carousel looks tough as we have no formidable aces on the mound today (no pitcher over $10K on DK).
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
CINCINNATI REDS -110 at PITTSBURGH PIRATES
We’re going with a doozy today with our first MLB bet. The Reds and Pirates are currently sitting as the two worst teams in the NL Central. But both teams at one point in the season had grips on a playoff spot. However, as we know, the MLB season is a marathon and the youth plus over-performance has caught up to both the Reds and Pirates.
However, there are a few things that standout and show some significant differences in these teams. First off, Cincy has a +30 run differential despite being 4-games under 0.500. This is equivalent to a team like the Mets, who in the NL East are sitting 6-games over 0.500. When compared to their opponent today, the Pirates have a -29 run differential which is 5th worst in the NL. On offense, the Reds are the more superior team ranking 14th in HR’s, 16th in OPS and 1th in wOBA. While the Pirates are respectively 26th in HR’s, 28th in OPS and 28th in wOBA.
As for pitching, the Reds and Pirates are almost dead even as they rank 24th and 25th in the MLB in team ERA. And even with Skenes and Jones at the helm, the Reds have a better staff K rate by 3%.
But what pushes me over the edge today with Cincy is that they have played the role of road favorite well, going 12-4 straight up when favored on the road. Additionally, Pirates SP Luis Ortiz has pitched above his predicted stats as his xFIP and SIERA are both approximately 1 run higher than his ERA. And that has showed up this month as Ortiz has posted 6.45 ERA in August showing the predicted negative regression against his stats. The Pirates have also lost the last 5 games that Ortiz has started. So we’ll back the Reds today to get out of Pittsburgh with a series split and head home to maybe make one final push for a playoff spot.
SAN DIEGO PADRES -125 vs NEW YORK METS
The Mets have taken two of the first three games in their current series with the Padres. Add that to a sweep they had in early June and the Mets are now 5-1 against San Diego this season. With that said, I’m backing the Padres today for two reason. First, Mets SP Jose Quintana has an 8.27 ERA in August. And the Mets are 0-4 in those starts including losses to the lowly Angels and Athletics. Secondly, the betting market is showing smart money pouring in on San Diego. As of this writing 78% of the bets are on SD but 91% of the money also sides with the Padres. It’s hard to dominate a team like San Diego the way the Mets have. And the sharps see that as well as a potential advantage on the mound as Martin Perez has pitched well for the Padres flashing a 2.74 ERA in four starts (all wins by SD).
DOG OF THE DAY: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +125 at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
A voice inside my head says “don’t do it Dave”. But I can’t resist and am going to back the Phillies today to win the rubber game in their series with Kansas City. The scary part is twofold, the Phillies have won just three series in 1.5 months. And they are relying on SP Kolby Allard to guide them towards an elusive series win.
But here’s why I think they are a live dog today and can come out on top. First, they’ve put together 29 hits in the first two games of their series with the Royals. And they finally broke their homer-less streak as JT Realmuto put two into the fountains (seats) last night. I like what I saw from most of their hitters, and think they are starting to turn the corner. Secondly, Royals SP Seth Lugo has been trending downwards since the all star break. While Lugo is still 2nd in the MLB in wins (14) and 6th in ERA (3.02) he’s been leaking oil of late with a 5.18 ERA in August. And that’s partly due to control as he’s allowed 10 walks in his last 4 starts leading to a 1.35 WHIP.
The Phillies have an awfully tough stretch ahead with Houston and Atlanta coming to town this week. In order to set up their rotation they are banking on Kolby Allard to fill in a spot start today. And while his ERA sits nicely at 3.46, his advanced metrics say he’ll be in line for negative regression. I’m just betting he’ll pitch well enough today and get bailed out by the offense as I see this closer to a pick ’em line. So I’ll take the value with the Phillies as dogs.
PLAYER PROPS
COLT KEITH over 1.5 H+R+R (-155 DK)
The Tigers 2B has a 7-game hitting streak going into today’s game with the White Sox. He’s also batting 0.313 against Chicago’s pitching this year. So I’m going to back him in the H+R+R department as he’s hitting 4th today and should see opportunities to knock in runs. Afterall, the Tigers have exploded for 18 runs in the first two games of this series and face another gas can in Jonathan Cannon.
PROP #2
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY –
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($9300 DK):
As I said in the opener, the pitching is treacherous today. There’s no real ace nor is there a real gold star matchup. I don’t think I’ve put Gausman’s name in my top 3 pitchers this year. But yet, here we are today and I feel pushed into a corner. And when that happens, I look to two things: K rate and ERA-FIP. In both cases, Gausman comes in the top 3 of SP’s on the slate today. While his strikeouts are down, he still has a 21.4% K rate. And his advanced metrics show a FIP and SIERA slightly lower than his 4.24 ERA showing he’s pitching to, or just below, expected and predicted marks. The other thing I like is that his ERA in August is the lowest of the season. Unlike someone like Seth Lugo, whose ERA has risen every month, Gausman is pitching better as the season goes long.
Then there’s his opponent, the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos from California are not hitting well in August. They have a team batting average of 0.221, which is 28th in the league, and are striking out at the 7th highest rate, 25.6%. Gausman also saw this same lineup ~2 weeks ago and threw 6 shutout innings on his way to his 11th victory. While I cringe at paying up for mediocre results, in GPP’s the Blue Jays SP has a chance to be a breakout as his ceiling is higher than most on the slate.
CODY BRADFORD ($8900 DK):
I’ve started to hitch my betting and fantasy wagons to Rangers SP Cody Bradford. As witnessed by my bet on Tuesday when I took his K prop, the Rangers starting pitcher flashes some quality stuff and metrics. The 26-year old LHP will not dazzle you with fastball speed as he averages 91 mph on the radar. But he has one of the bigger extensions to the plate as he stands 6’4″. That makes picking up his fastball tough for hitters as shown by his 24% whiff rate and 0.186 BA on the fastball. And it’s a pitch he throws a lot at 52% of his arsenal. Which is great news as his opponent today, the Guardians, rank 19th against the fastball this season.
Cleveland hasn’t dazzled at the plate in August as they are batting just 0.223 as a team which is 27th in the league. And they’re just 9-13 in the month of August as they’ve seen their lead in the AL Central shrink to just 2 games over both Kansas City and Minnesota. So there’s an opportunity here for Bradford, who has the highest K rate on the slate of any true SP (24%), to put up another quality start and push his name into the conversation as a piece of the Rangers rotation going into 2025.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: MERRILL KELLY ($8600 DK), ERIC FEDDE ($8000 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
MARCUS STROMAN ($7600 DK)
The Yankees SP has some value today primarily because of his opponent, the Colorado Rockies. Buyer beware, I normally avoid Stroman at home as his ERA in Yankee stadium is 5.06 and almost 2.5 runs higher than his road splits. But the Rockies come into today with the 2nd highest K rate this month, 28.6%, and 2nd highest on the season, 26.2%. The Rockies are also the 2nd worst batting team on the road hitting just 0.220 as a team. Their K rate rises to #1 in the MLB when on the road, 28%, and their wOBA and wRC+ is 28th away from Coors. So it’s more about the futility of Colorado and not as much about Stroman today. But if there is a bright side to the Yankees SP, it’s that he’s allowed just 1 ER in his last two starts (both at home) thus lowering his season ERA to 3.82.
HONORABLE MENTION: ZEBBY MATHEWS ($7500 DK), NICK MARTINEZ ($6500 DK), JAVIER ASSAD ($7300 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
CUBS:
The Cubs are coming off a 14-run outing in Miami and will see if they can duplicate that today when they take on the Marlins. The Fish will be sending out Adam Oller as their SP which is great news for Cubs bats as he allowed 5 ER’s in just 4.2 innings in his last start. While the Cubs haven’t been lights out at the plate, they have some good power numbers from key players that I’ll look to get in my lineup today. Pete Crow-Armstrong had an inside-the-park homer in yesterday’s game making that his 4th HR in his last 11 games. And he’s only $3100 on DK so that salary will help build other stacks we’re interested in. I’ll also look at Ian Happ (6 HR’s last 14 games), Cody Bellinger and Seya Suzuki. Two other bats I’ll consider are the catcher position (Miguel Amaya or Christian Betancourt) and Isaac Paredes.
YANKEES:
Because the pitching is thin today, you will have the luxury to spend up on Yankees bats. I can even see situations where we’re able to afford Juan Soto and Aaron Judge while also stacking an extra hitter or two (Torres / Wells) that are close by in the lineup. Simply put, Austin Gomber and Yankees stadium won’t mix well together. The Rockies SP has a 40% fly ball rate and a 14.8% fly-ball to home run rate (3rd highest on the slate today). Of the 25 homeruns he’s allowed, 18 have been to RH bats. So we’ll also look to get the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Oswaldo Cabrera into our lineups. One interesting option will be Jazz Chisholm who is 3 for 7 with 1 homerun off Gomber in his career.
Other Stacks to Consider: ROYALS, PHILLIES
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