Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Sunday Funday at the Sweet Spot and we have some great baseball on the schedule today. We’ve been fortunate that the weather has settled across the nation and we’re not having to be weathermen when setting our DFS lineups.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
For DFS we’ll be attacking the 1:35pm slate which has 11 games.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -150 vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Phillies have yet to play consistent offense. But they’ve been anchored by their pitching, especially their starting pitching. Philadelphia’s SP’s have a 2.93 ERA which is 6th best in the MLB and 2nd best in the NL. They also avoid giving out the free passes, having issued just 8 walks which is 2nd least in the league. On tap today are the Nationals who bat 0.222 as a team and are 22nd or worse in wOBA, wRC+ and HR’s.
But the key part of today is Washington’s SP McKenzie Gore. He faced the Phillies three times last year and the Nats went 0-3 in those contests. He allowed 16 ER’s in 13.2 innings for a 10.54 ERA. He also surrendered 5 home runs in those three starts.
Phillies bats are trying to wake up and I see them doing so today against a pitcher they have success against as they go for the sweep in DC.
PROJECTED LINE: Phillies -220 / EV +45%
TAMPA BAY RAYS -160 vs COLORADO ROCKIES
This series has had some fireworks. It started Friday with Colorado winning on a walk-off grand slam. Then continued into yesterday’s game when Tampa came back from a 5 -run deficit to win by a score of 8-6.
The key to today’s game is the difference in starting pitching. I wrote last week how I was looking forward to seeing Ryan Pepiot pitch as he was the key piece in the Tyler Glasnow trade. Well got lit up by the Rangers but did flash some positive stuff in between two bad innings. I am still banking on Pepiot to be a big contributor in the Rays rotation and will use him at a discounted price right now. And on the other side is Dakota Hudson who pitched admirably in his first start in Chicago but his defense didn’t help him out. This is the same pitcher that had a 4.74 ERA in the past 2 seasons. I expect a return to reality against a Tampa lineup that has put up 15 runs in the first two games of this series.
PROJECTED LINE: Rays -210 / EV +28%
DOG OF THE DAY: PITTSBURGH PIRATES +115 vs BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The pesky Pirates pulled out another victory yesterday to raise their season record to 7-2. This one took extra innings to get the W, which is already their 3rd win in extras this season. Their bats have been solid to date as they rank in the top 10 in BA, OBP, wOBA and wRC+. Today they face Dean Kremer who has a career ERA over 4.30. He allowed 27 HR’s last year and allowed 2 in his first start this year against KC. I’ll back the Pirates with the plus money today to win their 3rd consecutive series to open the season.
PROJECTED LINE: Pirates +110 / +5% EV
PLAYER PROPS
JOE BOYLE over 5.5 strikeouts (+115 Hard Rock)
Our model loved Boyle in his first start against Boston. And all he did was go out and let up 8 runs without making it out of the 3rd inning. But one game isn’t going to steer us off the tall RHP’s bandwagon. We’re going to back his K prop at plus money against a Tigers team that has a 23% K rate this season. Even despite the poor results in Game 1, he had 4 K’s and threw 84 pitches. So the possibility of him getting to 90 today raises our eyebrows and chances at cashing this prop.
SEAN MANAEA over 6.5 K’s (-110 DK)
The Mets LHP racked up 8 K’s in his first start of the season against Detroit. Today he faces the Reds who have the 2nd highest K rate as a team, 28.2%. I saw first-hand the Reds propensity to swing and miss as Phillies starters had 25 K’s against Cincy this past week. That included an 8 K outing from LHP Christopher Sanchez.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – MJ MELENDEZ over 0.5 HRs +450 DK
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
White Sox SP Garrett Crochet has been great this season. But his one flaw is that he let’s up a high percentage of fly balls (53% in 2024). That’s been fine in the cold windy weather of Chicago. But the weather in KC today is 65 degrees and sunny with a 20mph gust blowing out to CF. The Royals as a team are 4th in ISO and 3rd in home runs. I turn to MJ Melendez as he has 2 homers on the season and has the highest FB%, 54.5, on the team.
DFS – 1:35 PM SLATE
My strategy today is to work in the middle of the pitching slate. The top SP, Chris Sale, is always in play and being under $10K makes him worth a look. But outside of him, the below pitchers are the ones I’ll roster the most in my DFS lineups today.
Top Pitchers to Target:
JACK FLAHERTY ($8900 DK): It’s Oakland. So that’s always a good place to start. But Flaherty also showed well in his first outing this season going 6 innings and allowing just 1 ER.
ANDREW ABBOTT ($8600 DK): The Mets have the 2nd worst batting average in the league at 0.185. Abbott has a 9.73 K/9 since the start of last season which is good for 6th best on the slate today.
SEAN MANAEA ($8100 DK): Manaea has always possessed the arm talent to succeed in this league. His command issues are what has set him back. But with a new lease on life in NY, he’s showing the potential to have a breakout season. As stated above, Cincy has the 2nd highest K rate in the league which is a major reason for putting the Mets LHP in my player pool.
CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ ($7600 DK): Sanchez had a solid first outing against the Reds but was letdown by his bullpen as they allowed both his inherited runners to score even though he left with a 2-0 lead. The good news is that he should continue that success today against the Nats. He saw Washington twice last year and pitched 6 innings in both outings. That resulted in a 2.25 ERA and 12 K’s.
ALEC MARSH ($7500 DK): It’s the White Sox. Like Oakland, Chicago is always a good place to start when setting your pitching player pool. The White Sox are batting just 0.177 as a team which is worst in the MLB. They are 29th or worse in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ while sporting a K rate of 25.6%.
JOE BOYLE ($7000 DK): The model is not backing down and neither am I! Boyle has the highest projected output at 20.30 points and a 2.90 value. Based on his recent performance, you’ll be in the minority as he should have a low ownership value. Great opportunity in DFS if you can stomach the risk.
Top Stacks to Target:
NEW YORK YANKEES: The Jays are trying to turn today’s starter Bowden Francis into a full time SP. If his first start is any indication of that project, then he won’t last long. The Astros jumped all over Francis and deposited 3 balls into the stands while racking up 7 runs. With the Yankees bats putting up 9 yesterday, I’ll ride the wave and look to get the likes of Torres, Volpe, Soto, Judge and Verdugo into my stacks.
ATLANTA BRAVES: The Braves are leading the league in BA (.309), ISO, OBP, wOBA, wRC+ and whatever other stat you use to assess performance. And today they get the D’Backs worst SP in Ryne Nelson who has a career 5.02 ERA. I’m looking towards the middle of the order, with Riley, Olson and Ozuna. But you won’t be wrong with any of their top bats. And OF Jared Kelenic has looked great this year batting 0.625 so I’ll be looking to fit his $3500 salary into several lineups with Braves stacks and without.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: The Phillies lineup has had success against McKenzie Gore. Trea Turner is a career 5 for 9 off the Nats LHP so he’ll be in my Phillies stacks. I’ll also look at Harper, Realmuto, Bohm, Castellanos and Merrifield.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES: This one will be off the radar but I like what Pittsburgh has done so far this year. And because of that I’ll look for them to continue their success today against the Orioles and Kremer. The bats I’m favoring are Cruz, Hayes, Suwinski, Reynolds and Joe. If you want to add in the bottom end then Riolo and Olivares are quality options on the cheap.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS: Because of the nice weather and wind blowing out in KC today, I think the Royals could put up some runs against Garrett Crochet. As mentioned in the above section with Melendez, Crochet does let up the fly ball at a high rate. I’ll look at Garcia, Witt, Perez, Velasquez, Melendez and Renfroe.
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