Dave Gloeckner 
We took a hit Sunday, going 1-3 in our game bets to return a negative -2.4 units. But it was still a profitable week with game bets (posted in Sweet Spot articles) going 6-4 and profiting 1.8 units. So, we start a new week today and we have a loaded MLB slate to choose from. However, on the positive side the DFS market was good as our Miami stack paid dividends early and often. The pitching was solid, but we steered away from Dane Dunning who ended up with an impressive 32.2 DK points by striking out ten Reds batters.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MINNESOTA TWINS -155 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
I smelled a trap yesterday and didn’t trust my instincts. And it paid dearly as the White Sox completed their 3-game sweep of the Rays. But I’m back at it attacking the White Sox again this time with the red-hot Twins offense. Minnesota leads the MLB with a 0.332 batting average over the last week and is 2nd in baseball with 14 home runs in that same span. And they’re facing a pitcher that is struggling mightily in Garret Crochet. The White Sox LHP has 15.43 ERA in his last two starts and has an 8.36 ERA in night games. The Twins saw him just last week and scored 5 runs while racking up 7 hits off the southpaw.
Then there’s SP Joe Ryan who just threw 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Sox. He’s been pitching well of late but even more so on the road as he has a 1.59 ERA away from the Twin Cities. All trends point to the Twins tonight and I’ll back the better pitcher and hotter offense.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -135 at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
I’ll take another road favorite today by backing the Dodgers when they take the field in Arizona tonight. The Dodgers left Toronto with a series victory and have won 5 of 6 on their current nine game road trip. They are also swinging a hot bat, collectively, batting 0.322 over the past week which is good for 2nd in the MLB. Additionally, they are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite with a 9-4 SU record overall away from home. They are also 3-1 in games started by tonight’s SP, James Paxton.
As for Arizona, they have struggled as an underdog posting a 4-9 record ATS. As a home dog, they’re 0-2 ATS. Finally, the D’backs are 0-4 on Monday’s showing they get off to slow starts in series. I’ll use that information to firmly back the Big Blue from LA tonight in the Phoenix desert.
DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO CUBS +130 at NEW YORK METS
The Cubs come into this game after losing 2 of their last 3 games to the Red Sox. But before that they had won (or split) four straight series. And they sit just 0.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So things are still pointing upwards for the Cubbies. Tonight, they hand the ball to Jameson Tailon who has a 1.69 ERA in two starts. The Cubs have won both of those games and will look to push it to three in a row when they face the Mets in New York.
The Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games and are struggling to score runs consistently. Their offense is in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in wRC+, wOBA and BA during that stretch. They give the ball to Luis Severino tonight and while he’s pitched decent (2.67 ERA), they are just 1-4 in his starts. For those reasons, I see good value in the Cubs as underdogs tonight.
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 7:07PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:07pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
NICK LODOLO ($9800 DK):
Reds SP Nick Lodolo has one of the higher upsides on the board tonight. The Padres are batting just 0.154 off LHP’s over the past 7 games and are striking out at a 19% clip. The Reds are now 3-0 in Lodolo’s starts and look to continue that trend tonight against a Padres team that has lost 4 in a row.
MAX FRIED ($8700 DK):
After a slow start to the season, Max Fried finally turned the corner last week as he shutout the Miami Marlins and put up 39.5 DK points. While his only two positive return starts (>1x value) were against the woeful Marlins, he has a chance to put up solid numbers tonight against Seattle. That’s because the Mariners strike out at the highest rate in the league at 27.7%. And they’re just 24th in batting average, 25th in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+.
JAMESON TAILLON ($7000 DK):
Since I’m backing the Cubs in my game bets, why not double down with their SP in DFS. For one, the Mets/Cubs game has a total of 7.5 which is tied for lowest on the board. And secondly, the Mets implied team total is 3.5 runs. So we’re looking at a possible low scoring game and one in which Taillon will have the opportunity to go deep in. I highlighted the Mets recent offensive struggles above which adds to having Taillon in my player pool.
JOE RYAN ($10,400 DK):
I like Ryan tonight primarily because of his matchup with the worst offense in baseball; the White Sox. But I also love that he has the highest K rate of all starting pitchers tonight at 32.8%. The price is steep but considering his recent performance against Chicago and their own ability to strike out (6th highest in MLB) makes it worth putting Ryan in our SP1 tonight.
Value Pitchers to Target:
MATT WALDRON ($6800 DK):
Cincinnati is coming into their contest with San Diego tonight on a cold spell too. They are batting just 0.194 with a 0.089 ISO over the past week. And their K rate is through the roof coming in at 29.4% over the past 7 days. Waldron is coming off his best outing of the year when he shut down Colorado and racked up 21.3 DK points. His K rate is solid (20.3%) for a pitcher below $7000, which makes him a good value to target tonight.
Top Stacks to Target:
DODGERS:
I’m looking to attack D’backs SP Tommy Henry tonight as he has the lowest price tag on the board and is facing a top 3 offense in baseball. It starts with Betts as he’s batting 0.415 with a 1.059 OPS over the past two weeks. I’ll also look to get Smith, Ohtani, Pages and Rojas into my LAD stacks.
PHILLIES:
The Phillies offense is buzzing. They are coming off a three-game sweep in San Diego where they scored 22 runs. Alec Bohm is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball as he is hitting 0.472 with a 1.339 OPS over the past two weeks. Consider other hot bats such as Trae Turner, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh (ex-Angel), and Johan Rojas.
TWINS:
We talked earlier about how hot the Twins bats have been. And now they line up to face a struggling pitcher in Garret Crochet. Five Twins batters have an average over 0.400 in the past week; Vazquez, Jeffers, Kapler, Castro and Larnach. And Santana and Julien both have 3 home runs in the last week. All are good choices for a popular stack tonight in the Windy City.
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