Dave Gloeckner 
The Cardinals and Astros, two of the best offenses in baseball, scored a combined run yesterday in their games against weak pitching staffs. So that kept us from a great day but we still went 3-2 (added Blake Snell over 16.5 outs to discord) which kept us above water. We are now 21-5 on the month on props and bets with a +14.8 units return.
DFS was very good as well because we hit on Jose Suarez who was the 2nd highest SP on the board.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins tonight at 7:05 pm with 12 games to choose from. Jason and I broke down the slate on YouTube last night as shown above. Below are my DFS plays as well as any props/bets that I like tonight.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +69.6 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
GERRIT COLE ($11,200 DK) – Gerrit Cole had a forgettable performance against the Twins earlier this year. In that game, he went 2.1 innings and allowed 7 ER’s and 5 home runs. He had something similar to this when he faced Seattle and allowed 6 ER’s and 3 home runs in the first inning. After that, he went 12 innings against the Mariners and allowed 0 ER’s while striking out 14.
I feel there is similar bounce back potential tonight for Cole against Minnesota. The Twins aren’t lighting up any scoreboards lately as they have just 10 runs in the first four games of August. Plus they are just 20th in batting, 19th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+ in the last two weeks. The price tag for Cole is high, and I prefer other options, but I do think he’ll have a good start tonight.
NOTE: It is raining heavily in the northeast and this game could get postponed. If it doesn’t, it will be wet and gives me further reason to avoid Cole for tonight. You may have heard but he relies heavily on his grip.
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,000 DK) – Valdez brings an impressive streak into tonight’s contest with the Rangers. He has 22 consecutive quality starts dating all the way back to April 19th. Over that stretch he is 13-3 with a 2.45 ERA. Even more impressive is his stat line against the Rangers this season. In 4 starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA. He’s averaged 7 innings of work and 7 K’s versus Texas. I feel like this is another great spot for Valdez against a team he pretty much owns.
KYLE WRIGHT ($9700 DK) – Kyle Wright is having a very impressive 2022 season. He leads the league in wins with 17 and is 14th overall in ERA with a 2.85 mark. And unlike some other younger arms, he is not fading as we get to September. Over his past 4 starts, he is averaging 26.5 DK points and is 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA. Tonight, he faces the A’s in Oakland which is a friendly pitcher’s ballpark. The A’s offense happens to also be friendly to pitchers as they are 23rd in batting, 27th in ISO and 25th in wOBA over the past 2 weeks.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JUSTIN DUNN ($5800 DK): The Reds right-handed pitcher has been good in his past 3 starts. In that span he is averaging 15.2 DK points as he’s allowed just 4 ER’s over 15 innings of work. And that was against good offenses such as the Phillies and Cardinals. Tonight, he gets to face the Cubs who are not a good hitting team. The Cubbies are 26th in batting average, 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. This could be a good sneaky spot for value tonight.
BONUS PICKS: I do like SHANE BIEBER ($10,600 DK) tonight against the Royals and EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ ($7400 DK) against the Angels. Bieber has been really good of late and in his one start against KC this year he allowed 0 ER’s. As for Rodriguez, he pitched against the Angels two weeks ago and registered 21.1 DK points by hurling 5 shutout innings. I’ve been on the MERRILL KELLY ($9200 DK) train all year and do also see value in him against San Diego. He is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in 2 starts against the Padres this season.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
RONALD ACUNA JR ($6500 DK) – The Braves OF is 4 for 5 in his career of A’s starter Cole Irvin. Two of those 4 hits went for home runs. He also has 11 hits in his last 10 games with 1 home run. It’s been a quiet season so far for Acuna but I see him starting to heat up at the right time for Atlanta.
BO BICHETTE ($5600 DK) – The Blue Jays shortstop had a day yesterday versus the Orioles. In their doubleheader in Baltimore, Bichette went 6 for 10 and hit 3 home runs. Tonight, he gets to ride that momentum into a game that Kyle Bradish is pitching for Toronto. Bradish is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA against the Jays this year.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Orioles tonight. Mitch White has been a disappointment for the Jays but they keep rolling him out there every 5 days. He is 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA since joining Toronto at the trade deadline. I’ll look to stack hitters like Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle, Henderson, Urias and Hays.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
SPENCER STEER ($2600 DK): The Reds called up Steer over the weekend to get him major league at-bats over the last month of the season. Steer was one of the prized pieces in the Tyler Mahle trade with the Twins. He has plus power as exhibited by his home run in his first career game last Friday.
MLB PROP BETS
AARON NOLA over 19.5 outs (-110 DK) – Nola has a 1.17 ERA in 2 starts against the Marlins this year. He’s pitched 15.1 innings in those two starts going over 19.5 outs both times. Pending weather here in Philly, this is a sweet spot to attack.
YANKEES vs TWINS NFRI (-145 DK) –
BLUE JAYS vs ORIOLES over 8.5 runs (-120 DK) – The Jays and Orioles have gone over this total 7 of 9 games this year.
FRAMBER VALDEZ under 2.5 ER (-170 DK) –
MERRILL KELLY under 2.5 ER (-120 DK) –
BRANDON WOODRUFF over 2.5 ER (-120 DK) & under 6.5 K’s (-160 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
