Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Super Saturday edition of the Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. It is the first Saturday of September and we’re seeing some really impressive performances. One that caught everyone’s eye last night was Yankees rookie Jasson Dominguez as he hit a homerun in his 1st career MLB at-bat. Even cooler, it was again a future HOF in Just Verlander. Yankees still stink, but it goes to show good things are happening even on teams with little to play for. Dominguez was $2000 last night!
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:10 pm with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
BLAKE SNELL ($11,300 DK)
While it’s hard to pay top dollar on an 11-game slate, there are reasons to believe Snell can return a high value even at $11K. First, he leads the league in ERA at 2.60. Secondly, since June 1st he is a stellar 10-3 with a 1.65 ERA in 16 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in that stretch and only allowed over 2 ER’s just once. He’s the leader in the clubhouse for NL Cy Young and will be hard to beat at this rate.
Then there’s his opponent tonight which is the San Francisco Giants. They have the 4th highest K rate in baseball at 25%. And then there’s the recent history which favors Snell greatly. He has one game against SF this season and scored 37.7 DK points by tossing six shutout innings and racking up eleven K’s. The performances are electric and his matchup against a strike-out heavy lineup is the primary reason for reaching up to the top shelf tonight.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($9900 DK)
The Rangers have hit a brick wall of late falling back to 3rd place in the AL West. They are only 1 game out of first, but being they are 3-11 in the last two weeks makes it feel like they are miles from first. And while the losing ways are frustrating, tonight’s SP Jordan Montgomery has been a ray of light. Since joining the Rangers, Montgomery has a 2.30 ERA in five starts. He’s had four quality starts in his five outings showing both consistency and ability to pitch deep into games.
Tonight he gets the Twins who he just faced last week. He was rolling right along in that game with five shutout innings until he pitched into trouble in the 6th inning. Manager Bruce Bochy abruptly pulled Montgomery with the bases loaded only to see his reliever, Chris Stratton, allow a grand slam to the first batter he faced. So I like Montgomery tonight to continue his hot streak and take solace knowing last week’s performance against the same team he’s facing tonight turned from great to unlucky.
KYLE HARRISON ($8500 DK)
If you play MLB DFS regularly then I’m sure you know the name Kyle Harrison. If you’re a casual player, then let me welcome you to one of the brightest young arms in the MLB today. The Giants promoted Harrison two weeks ago against the Phillies. In that outing, he let up a homerun to Bryce Harper in the first inning but then shut down the formidable lineup until he was pulled in the 6th. In his most recent outing, he blew away the Reds and racked up 11 K’s while allowing just one hit and 0 ER’s over 6 innings of work.
Harrison flashes a plus fastball that jumps on hitters. And he backs it up with a plus slider making him very difficult to hit. He faces the Padres tonight who are batting just 0.223 over the past 10 games. I expect Harrison to dazzle again and befuddle a lineup that has struggled all year at the plate.
YUSEI KIKUCHI ($7500 DK)
The Blue Jays SP has been one of the best pitchers since the All Star Break. While he’s cooled off some in his past 2 starts, those ended up still being effective outings. Meaning when he hasn’t had his best stuff, he’s found ways to keep his team in games. The Kikuchi of old would have unraveled in those similar situations.
Tonight he faces the Rockies who are batting 0.224 and striking out at a 25% clip over the past week. Colorado had scored four runs or less in seven straight games before breaking out last night and scoring nine runs. I expect them to regress back to their recent form and Kikuchi to have a solid night for the Jays as they continue to pursue a playoff spot.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
ALEC MARSH ($6700 DK)
Don’t just look at the ugly 5.47 ERA and disgusting 0-7 record. That will just make you turn the other way, and fast. But instead, look at the last two outings where he had nine strikeouts in each game. And in both those outings, he scored 20 DK points. Also look at his 26% K rate and 10.7 K/9 innings and we have high strikeout potential which is just what we need when shopping in the value isle.
BONUS PICKS
I also like LUIS CASTILLO ($11,100 DK) and MIKE CLEVINGER ($8000 DK) today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:10 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the MARINERS (vs. NYM), the ORIOLES (vs Arizona), the RANGERS (vs. Minnesota), the BLUE JAYS (vs. Colorado), and the CARDINALS (vs. Pittsburgh).
CORE BATTERS
JULIO RODRIGUEZ ($6200 DK)
The Mariners have cooled off over the past three games. But that was to be expected after they ran through a sizzling two weeks of offensive onslaught. I’m betting they get back to slugging the ball tonight against the Mets and LHP David Peterson. And I’ll hitch my wagon to Julio Rodriguez who finished the month of August batting over 0.400.
For stacking, I like JP CRAWFORD, CAL RALEIGH, TY FRANCE, and EUGENIO SUAREZ.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO ($5400 DK)
The Jays are batting 0.300 over the past week and are coming off a game in which they scored 14 runs. They get another crack at one of the best hitters parks tonight as they face the Rockies once again in Coors Field. Vladimir Guerrero is a bat to target as he brings a 12-game hitting streak to tonight’s contest. And he has now surpassed 20 home runs as he’s found his power stroke of late.
For stacking, I like GEORGE SPRINGER, DAVIS SCHNEIDER, BO BICHETTE, ALEJANDRO KIRK and MATT CHAPMAN.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TBD ($2400 DK)
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