Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. It feels like DeJa’Vu here as last Tuesday we talked about a significant injury on MNF with Aaron Rodgers. And we just saw a similar occurrence in Pittsburgh last night as the Browns lost their star RB, Nick Chubb, to a gruesome injury. But this is all about baseball and the stretch run. These next few weeks will see lots of unknown players step into roles and succeed. The key will be finding the stacks that have these cheap options as it will allow us to pay up for pitching. Because as you know, arms are valuable right now and the better pitchers still have something to play for thus enhancing their salaries, and performances over the lower range SP’s.
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 p.m. with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
LUIS CASTILLO ($11,300 DK)
The Seattle Mariners are fighting for their playoff lives. They are tied with the Texas Rangers for the final Wild Card Spot in the AL. Additionally, they trail the Astros by only 1.5 games for the AL West lead. Which means they have everything to play for tonight when they face the Oakland A’s. Making this a great spot for Castillo which is reflected in his salary.
Castillo is performing like the ace the Mariners traded for at the deadline last season. And he’s showing it in this stretch run posting a 6-0 record in his last 7 starts. In that span he has a 2.65 ERA and 44 K’s in 44 innings pitched. Even better, the M’s have allowed him to throw an average of 106 pitches in his last two starts. The A’s were shutout last night by Bryan Woo and they have a 0.205 batting average and 30.2% K rate in the past 10 days. This is a fantastic spot where one team has everything to play for and the other has tee times reserved for October.
BLAKE SNELL ($10,600 DK)
There was a scathing article posted today about the Padres on The Athletic. The blame game is real as locker room cohesion and accountability are being questioned. And while San Diego has nothing to play for, their SP Blake Snell does. Snell is a free agent after this season and is the current betting favorite for NL Cy Young. Think about the offers waiting for him if he closes out the season and collects hardware.
He gets to continue his impressive campaign tonight with that motivation facing a hapless Colorado Rockies team. Once again, the Rockies splits between home and away are enormous. They come into tonight’s matchup with the Padres as having the highest K rate (27.4%), 4th lowest batting average (0.231) and 2nd lowest wOBA (0.286) on the road. Add to that, Snell has 21 K’s in 11.1 innings against Colorado. This is a spot on the slate that I’ll be heavily invested in tonight.
ZAC GALLEN ($9800 DK)
Here we find another juicy opportunity based on splits and game importance. First off, tonight will play much like a playoff game between the Diamondbacks and Giants. Arizona currently owns the 2nd Wild Card spot in the NL but four teams, including the Giants, are within 2.5 games of them. And as we know, playoff baseball in usually a slower paced, and lower scoring, which this game looks to be with a total of 8.5 juiced to -120.
As for Gallen, September has not been his best month. But pitching at home is his best venue. For the season he is 11-2 with a 2.18 ERA at Chase Field. That includes one performance against the Giants where he pitched 7.2 innings allowing just 2 ER’s. This was the starting pitcher in the All Star game for the NL. However, tonight is the biggest game he has started and I expect him to be dominant.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JAVIER ASSAD ($5900 DK)
Javier Assad has been hit around in his last two starts. But prior to that, he had two gems against Division opponents where he allowed just 1 ER and struck out 14. One of those gems was against his same opponent tonight, the Pittsburgh Pirates where he put up a season high 28.8 DK points. And in the common theme of today’s article we have a team fighting for October and one with vacation plans. While the Pirates have played better down the stretch, I have confidence the Cubs will be the better team tonight. Afterall, they have been in 9 of their 10 outings with Pittsburgh this year (that means they are 9-1 against the Pirates, if you needed that translation).
BONUS PICKS
I also like RYAN PEPIOT ($9100 DK) and YUSEI KIKUCHI ($8700 DK) today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the BREWERS (vs. STL), the GUARDIANS (vs KC), the WHITE SOX (vs. Washington), the CUBS (vs. Pittsburgh), and the ASTROS (vs. Baltimore).
CORE BATTERS
CODY BELLINGER ($6300 DK)
The Cubs playoff lives are at jeopardy after losing three games to Arizona over the weekend. Bellinger was part of the issue as the D’Backs held him to a 1-11 batting line in that series. But nothing cures a bad hitting stretch better than coming home, particularly if that’s Wrigley Field. Bellinger has a higher BA, more home runs, and higher OPS at home comapred to the road. And he gets to face an LHP, Bailey Falter, which he hits much better against with a 0.342/0.92/0.594 slash line.
For stacking, I like CHRIS MOREL, JAMEIR CANDELARIO, NICO HOERNER, DANSBY SWANSON, and MIKE TAUCHMAN.
JOSE ABREU ($6300 DK)
The Astros 1B is having a good September as he’s hit four home runs and knocked in 20 in only 12 games. Tonight he faces Kyle Gibson who he has hit four career home runs against. With the Astros just 1.5 games up on the Rangers and Mariners, I expect them to turn it on and close out the season with an AL West title. So there’s no end of season lull in Houston, like we’re seeing in Atlanta, and I’m fully riding the Astros stack tonight as they’ve seen Kyle Gibson quite a bit based on his time in the AL.
For stacking, I like JOSE ALTUVE, ALEX BREGMAN, YORDAN ALVAREZ, KYLE TUCKER, CHAS MCCORMICK, and MICHAEL BRANTLEY.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TBD
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