Dave Gloeckner 
The opening day of the MLB playoffs did not disappoint. Two road teams won and are now on the precipice of clinching their series today. That shouldn’t be of surprise, as the Mariners, Phillies and Padres won road series in the Wild Card round last year. And two of those teams won a Divisional Series as well. Just shows that momentum in baseball can shift on one pitch or play and affect an entire series.
As for DFS, our pitching was as close to spot on as possible. I faded Gausman and played him in 0% of lineups. Wheeler was the #1 SP and lived up to the quote from yesterday of “Wheeler is my favorite pitcher on the board tonight”. And the bats were solid as the Twins came through but I didn’t have enough pieces of Arizona which was needed to break the slate. But still a profitable day and we look to keep that rolling on Day 2.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 3:00p.m. with 4 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 4 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 3:00 PM Start
We have a bevy of solid arms today. The teams that are trailing in series may be more desperate and could move to the bullpen earlier than they do in the regular season. It’s just something to consider when making your player pool today.
ZAC GALLEN ($9200 DK)
The Brewers have to be kicking themselves for blowing a three run lead with their ace on the mound. It reminds me of a game where Cliff Lee allowed five runs to the Cardinals back in 2011 after the Phillies got him out to a three run lead. Unfortunately, the Phillies never recovered and lost the series in a Game 5 when Chris Carpenter outpitched Roy Halladay in a 1-0 game. And speaking of Cardinals vs Phillies, last year St Louis blew a three run lead in the 9th inning of Game 1 and never did rebound from that. So the point being, this is something that is real and I factor into today’s game.
But the real factor and reason for liking Zac Gallen is that he gets to face the worst offense in the playoffs in the Milwaukee Brewers. Below are Milwaukee’s ranks in several major hitting categories:
As shown above, the Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in baseball in every category except K rate. And Zac Gallen has used that to his advantage as he has faced Milwaukee twice this season and allowed just 6 hits and 1 ER over 14 innings of work. I feel that Gallen will ride the momentum from yesterday combined with the confidence from his past performances to a stellar outing today.
FREDDIE PERALTA ($9000 DK)
Even though I’m sky high on Peralta’s opponent today, that doesn’t mean the Brewers SP won’t shine as well. Arizona scored the most runs of any team yesterday yet they are just 15th in runs scored on the season. Milwaukee’s strength is their pitching and I expect them to turn it around today in Game 2.
One of the biggest factors in Peralta’s favor is his home splits. He has an ERA that is one full run lower at home (3.44 versus 4.34). And his BA against is 64 points lower in his friendly confines (0.182 vs 0.246). Add to that, here are his strikeout numbers from road to home:
- K/9 inning (road): 9.74
- K/9 inning (home): 12.84
Arizona is a pesky lineup but has it’s holes. And Peralta should be able to swiftly navigate through that which makes him a viable option tonight.
SONNY GRAY ($8300 DK)
Sonny Gray finished with an 8-8 record this season. But that doesn’t tell much of the story as he also finished with a sparkling 2.79 ERA which was good for 3rd best in baseball. He also finished T-3 with Kevin Gausman with a 5.3 WAR. The bottom line is, Gray had his best major league season and is rewarded with a trip to the postseason for the first time since 2017.
The Jays offense has been inconsistent all season and it showed in yesterday’s game against the Twins. They saw Gray once this season and managed to score just one run off him in five innings. They rely on the longball but Gray has allowed just 8 all season. The advantage is definitely with the pitcher here and I expect Gray to post a quality start and be one of the top three pitchers on the board today. He’s my favorite play based on price and potential value.
AARON NOLA ($8000 DK)
You never know which Aaron Nola will show up. But if it’s the one from the last two outings of the season, then it’s someone we’ll want to invest in tonight. That’s because when the spotlight was greatest, he found a way to up his game up a notch and helped the Phillies clinch a Wild Card berth. Over his last 2 starts, he’s allowed just 3 ER’s over 12.2 innings and struck out 16.
I know you’ve heard it before, but CBP is a different ballpark than most any in baseball. It is deafening and challenging for opponents to play in during the playoffs. And even harder for a young team that has already exceeded expectations. I’m going to bet on Nola tonight based on the venue plus his ability to step up in big moments will propel him to a solid outing tonight in Philly.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER)
TBD
Again no true value range on the board tonight but I’m going to go back to the Rangers and roll out NATHAN EOVALDI ($7800 DK) as my Kool-Aide Man tonight. Eovaldi has the ability to dominate and his ceiling is very high. That’s the type of pitcher we want to target especially in the lower priced regions. He’s been primarily used in relief roles over the past month. However, Texas started to stretch him out over the past 2 weeks so I expect him to have a full workload. The Rays have a powerful lineup but can be attacked with fastballs as shown last night by the Texas bullpen.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 3:00 PM
MLB STACKS RANKED IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE:
- Philadelphia
- Minnesota
- Texas
- Tampa Bay
- Toronto
- Miami
- Arizona
- Milwaukee
CORE BATTERS
ALEC BOHM ($4400 DK)
I’m going back to Philly tonight. All nine starters recorded a base hit last night for the Phightins. I like that they’re seeing another LHP again in Braxton Garrett since they faced one last night as well. Bohm has had the most success of Garrett as he is 5 for 9 with a home run in his career off the Marlins SP. And the Phillies lineup in general hits Garrett as they have a combined .353 BA off the southpaw.
For stacking, I like BRYCE HARPER, TREA TURNER, NICK CASTELLANOS, BRYSON STOTT, and JT REALMUTO.
ROYCE LEWIS ($5800 DK)
The Twins 3B sat out the last 12 days of the season due to a hamstring injury. But he came back in form to start the playoffs by lifting two home runs off Jays SP Kevin Gausman. its in 8 of his last 9 games. His opponent tonight is Jose Berrios who has pitched in three playoff games, all while playing for the Twins. And as you probably know, the Twins lost all those games he appeared in. I like the Twins power numbers against as Berrios allowed 25 HRs and had a 12.6% HR/FB ration this season.
For stacking, I like CARLOS CORREA, MAX KEPLER, ALEX KIRILOFF, EDOUARD JULIEN, JORGE POLANCO, and MATT WALLNER.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER)
JOHAN ROJAS ($3000 DK)
Rojas is now an everyday player for the Phillies and he fits in perfectly in the nine spot in their lineup. Last night he registered a hit and stolen base and later came around to score. And on the season he’s batting 0.333 against LHPs. This is a good spot, and a good price, for a key part of the Philadelphia lineup.
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