Dave Gloeckner 
Last night, the Phillies clinched their first playoff berth since 2011. I stayed up all night to watch the celebration which reminded me how fun fall baseball is. So this train isn’t stopping at WinDaily as we have work to do and pump out some final winners to end the MLB season. I ended last week with a 2-4 day on props and bets which got us to 51-37 for the month of September. The return was solid at +13.1 units as well.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card tonight begins at 7:05 pm with 10 games to choose from. Jason and I gave a quick breakdown of the card on our YouTube channel. Click the link below to get some details on where our strategy is for tonight. Below are my DFS plays as well as any props/bets that I like tonight.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +63 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
GERRIT COLE ($10,700 DK)
Cole hasn’t been great of late as he’s allowed 15 ER’s in his last 4 starts. But good news is, his opponent tonight hasn’t been very good either. Since Sept 1st, the Rangers are 8-22. In that span they are 3rd in K rate (26.4%) and 27th in batting average (0.212). And Cole faced the Rangers once this year and struck out 10 in 6.1 innings while allowing just 1 ER. I’m ignoring the past month (and his 4.80 ERA) and look at the matchup as one of the best on the board tonight.
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($10,500 DK)
The first part of this equation you know, and that is Justin Verlander is very good. His odds to win Cy Young are -20000 meaning $200 can get you a fresh $1 if he brings home the hardware. Verlander had a brief stint on the IL and has returned flashing the same excellent stuff over his past 3 starts as evidenced by his 1.50 ERA in September. And he’s 9-1 at home this year with a 1.73 ERA.
The second part of the equation is this; the Phillies are likely hungover. There was more Bud Heavy’s and Miller Lite’s in that locker room since my early college days. They’ll put together a lineup but it won’t be one that can see the baseball clearly. I think Verlander is in for a nice outing here as he ramps up for the playoffs.
ZAC GALLEN ($9400 DK)
Zac Gallen is sitting 2nd in the NL Cy Young race and will likely stay there as Sandy Alcantara is favored by a similar odds as Verlander. But that doesn’t mean Gallen won’t be pressing to finish the season in style. The Diamondbacks ace is 7th in the league in ERA at 2.46 and 18th in K’s with 186. He has 14 straight starts of 3 ER’s or less. And tonight, Gallen faces the Brewers who were just eliminated from the playoffs late last night. Motivation will not be there for the Brew Crew but I feel there is still some left in Gallen.
JULIO URIAS ($9000 DK)
Urias has an argument for Cy Young as well as he is 2nd in the MLB in ERA (2.12) and 2nd in wins with 17. Since August 1st, he has a 1.03 ERA in 10 starts. He’s seen others go down (Kershaw, Gonsolin, Buehler) and some fade (Anderson) but Urias has been the steady force of the Dodgers rotation the whole year and is in line for a Game 1 or Game 2 start in the Division Series next week. Tonight, he’ll finish off the regular season against a team that he has seen 4 times this year in the Rockies. His one lone start in LA was his best against Colorado as he went 6 innings with 7 K’s and 1 ER in that contest. I expect similar tonight and have him as my favorite pitcher on the board.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
MICHAEL LORENZEN ($6800 DK)
Lorenzen just seems like a wrong price on DK tonight. Over his past 4 starts he’s averaging 16 DK points per outing and has a 3.04 ERA. Additionally, he’s faced the A’s three times this season and is 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA allowing just 1 ER all season to Oakland.
BONUS PICKS
I do like LUCAS GIOLITO ($8500 DK) tonight against the Twins and JEFFREY SPRINGS ($7400 DK) against the Red Sox.
Giolito has faced the Twins 3 times and has 20 K’s in 14 innings of work. Springs has a 1.44 ERA since September 1st and has 31 K’s in 31.1 innings pitched. His potential for high K’s, Boston is 4th in K rate vs LHP’s since Sept 1, also makes him intriguing.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The Dodgers only managed 1 run against Colorado last night. I’m betting that changes tonight as manager Dave Roberts knows he needs to keep his team focused going into the post season. Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has a 3-9 record and a road ERA of 6.06. I’m going to recommend bats like Betts, Freeman, Turner, Smith, Thompson, Lux, and Bellinger.
As a bonus stack, I also like Angels tonight against A’s. They are 4-0 against Irvin this year and have good numbers hitting against the A’s starter. Rengifo, Ohtani, Ward and Trout are a combined 24 for 55 off Irvin which is good for a 0.436 batting average. So look to roster those batters as well as Livan Soto and Anthony Rendon.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
CHAS MCCORICK ($2400 DK)
The Astros 3B hits 120 points higher off LHP’s as he has a 0.323 batting average this year off southpaws.
MLB PROP BETS
ZAC GALLEN over 6.5 Ks (-110 DK) and under 1.5 ER’s (+100)
In his one game against Milwaukee, Zac Gallen went 7 innings and allowed just 2 hits with 7 K’s and 0 ER’s.
DETROIT TIGERS over 1.5 runs F5 (+100 DK)
Chris Flexen is starting his first game since early August. He may only go 3 innings but that may be enough to surpass this number for the Tigers.
JEFFREY SPRINGS over 4.5 K’s (-130 DK)
Because the Red Sox have a high K rate against LHP’s. Springs is averaging 1 K/inning against Boston so we likely need him to go 5 innings to get this which I think he will as Tampa gears up for a playoff game on Friday.
HOUSTON ASTROS -0.5 F5 (-130 DK)
I see a hangover in Philly tonight and one where Houston probably doesn’t hold back.
ORIOLES over 1.5 runs F5 (-110 DK)
I don’t get this one. Mitch White hasn’t allowed less than 3 ER’s in a start since mid August. He has 6 straight starts of 3 ER’s or more. The last time he faced Baltimore he allowed 5 ER’s in 2.1 innings. That’s a sweet spot to attack if there ever was one.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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