Dave Gloeckner 
The MLB Playoffs Division Round series begin today at 1:07pm. All four series play today which gives us a nice sized DFS and betting slate. As a reminder, the Division Series are a best of 5 and there is an off day built in each series. So we will see baseball every day through the weekend (barring a sweep in all four series).
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
NOTE: MLB 2022 PLAYOFF Props/Bets are-1.7 units (1-2 record)
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:07 PM Start
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($10,000 DK)
Verlander toes the mound today for the Astros. He will be making his 32nd career postseason appearance and 16th start for the Astros. He has struggled in the past 2 postseasons (2018 and 2019) posting a 4.25 ERA and 3-5 record in 9 starts. But he’s a different pitcher in 2022 and finished the season 18-4 with a league-leading 1.75 ERA. He has 6 starts against the Division rival Seattle Mariners and is 5-1 in those appearances. At home, he was 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA versus Seattle.
Seattle was the best hitting team in the Wild Card round and is exuding with confidence. But based on the season numbers and their struggles against Verlander, I like the Astros pitcher in this spot to cool off their bats for one game.
JULIO URIAS ($8700 DK)
Julio Urias had a fantastic season for the Dodgers and earned the Game 1 start by going 17-7 and posting the 2nd best ERA in baseball at 2.16. Additionally, he was great against the Padres this year going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. The Padres hit only 0.181 off Urias but they did manage 10 walks in his four appearances so that will be a key factor in today’s game.
But let’s also factor in the playoff baseball experience that Urias has. At age 26 he will be making his 23rd postseason appearance today. He is 7-3 with a solid 3.52 ERA in his playoff career. Add that experience to the obvious jetlag that San Diego will have being the only team that played 3 games this weekend and I feel like this is a prime spot for Urias to shine.
MAX FRIED ($8500 DK)
The Phillies pitching, and some luck, carried them to a series victory over the St Louis Cardinals. Their batting was awful as they had the second lowest batting average (0.158) in the Wild Card round. That recipe won’t work against the Braves who hit very well as they were 2nd in the NL with 789 runs scored.
That gives Max Fried a decided advantage today against the Phillies. Besides their struggles in the postseason, the Phillies batted just 0.240 over the last 2.5 weeks of the regular season which was 13 points lower than their season average. And the power in their lineup is mainly left-handed (Schwarber and Harper) so Fried can isolate that as he allowed just 12 home runs all season and only 2 to lefties.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
RANGER SUAREZ ($5600 DK)
Using a pitcher against the Braves is normally a strategy we fade. But hear me out here. Since Sept 1st, the Braves are 17th in wOBA, 11th in batting, and 15th in ISO versus LHP’s. And more importantly, for DFS, they are 10th in K rate at 25.6%. Additionally, Suarez has started 5 games against Atlanta this year and has a respectful 3.21 ERA. He was them twice in September and went 12 innings allowing just 7 hits and 1 ER (ERA of 0.75). All good reasons to give Ranger a start today against the Braves.
BONUS PICKS
I do like GERRIT COLE ($9700 DK) tonight against the Guardians as well. Cole has two starts against Cleveland this season as was 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. We saw the Guardians struggle offensively versus Tampa as they mustered only 3 runs but did win the series 2-0. And he’s pitched decent for the Yankees in the playoff (minus last year’s disaster against Boston) but he’s never pitched a playoff game in Yankee stadium. The weather is good here on the East Coast so it will be prime pitching conditions and I look for Cole to have a dominant performance versus a Cleveland team that hit just 0.171 in the Wild Card round.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:07 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK:
For me it has to be the Dodgers today. Which is why you’ll likely need to spend under $18 K on your SP’s. The Padres are rolling out Mike Clevinger who posted a 7.83 ERA in September. And more importantly, he posted a 9.69 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Batters like Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Will Smith all have batting averages above 0.400 against Clevinger. So they will be in a good stack spot as well as Freeman, Muncy and Lux.
As a bonus stack, I also like Yankees tonight against Guardians. In 59 career plate appearances, active Yankees batters are hitting 0.320 off Cleveland starting pitcher Cal Quantrill. Hitters like Josh Donaldson, Harrison Bader and Kyle Higashioka have good career numbers off Quantrill. On the flip side, Judge and Stanton are a combined 0 for 10 in 12 plate appearances. However, they have just 1 combined K so they are putting the ball in play which makes it very plausible they will snap their “O’fer” tonight.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ROBBIE GROSSMAN ($2600 DK)
Grossman is a switch-hitter and found much more success from the right side of the plate this season. Against LHP’s he hit 0.320 which was 160 points higher than against RHP’s.
MLB PROP BETS
MAX FRIED over 15.5 outs (-110 DK)
Fried went over this total in 3 of his 4 starts against the Phillies this year. And he went over this total in 6 of his last 9 postseason starts (2020 and 2021).
SEATTLE MARINERS over 0.5 runs F5 (-150 DK)
Seattle has been dialed in at the plate this postseason. While I expect a good game from Verlander, I think Seattle can sneak across a run early. It’s been 3 years since Verlander has thrown a playoff game dating back to the 2019 World Series. In that postseason he allowed at least 1 run in F5 in 5 of his 6 starts.
JOSH DONALDSON over 0.5 hits (-180 DK)
Because the Red Sox have a high K rate against LHP’s. Springs is averaging 1 K/inning against Boston so we likely need him to go 5 innings to get this which I think he will as Tampa gears up for a playoff game on Friday.
GERRIT COLE over 1.5 BB’s (-110 DK)
Cole has gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 stats and 4 of his last 5 home starts. First playoff start at Yankee stadium could raise his nerves until he settles in.
MOOKIE BETTS over 0.5 runs scored (-110 DK)
Mookie Betts has scored 37 runs in 51 career postseason games. And he is 7 for 15 in his career off Clevinger. I like him to set the table tonight and find a way to cross home plate. After all, he was 2nd in the MLB in runs scored despite missing 20 games.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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