Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Money-Making Monday! We enter the final week of the MLB season and there are 7 playoff spots still up for grabs. The AL only has two teams that have punched a ticket to the postseason. The AL West and all three wild cards are still up for grabs though it would take a minor miracle for Baltimore and Houston to not make the playoffs. In the NL, the wild card participants are still to-be-determined as the Mets, Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks are fighting for three spots. And yes, technically the NL East and NL West aren’t clinched but the Phillies and Dodgers are in the playoffs and look to clinch the division early this week.
With the sprint coming up this week, today is a rest day for most teams. That means there are only 4 games on the slate to bet and play Daily Fantasy on.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -180 vs CHICAGO CUBS
The Phillies ended up losing three of four in their weekend series at New York, which prevented them from clinching the NL East. But their magic number still sits at two games with six games left to play. Which means, they will clinch eventually but there is more motivation to play hard through the week. The Phillies currently trail the Dodgers by one game for the best record in the NL. The Dodgers have a three-game set with San Diego that starts tomorrow which will decide the NL West. So there’s opportunity for the Phillies to make up that game with the Cubs and Nationals remaining on their schedule.
Additionally, the Phillies are back home tonight where they boast the best record in baseball at 52-26. This includes a 6-1 record in September and 8-2 in their last 10 home events. And they’ve been good for bettors in the big favorite role, as they are 35-14 in games where a ML favorite of -180 or better. As of this writing, Chicago is planning on a bullpen game and handing the ball to Nate Pearson who hasn’t pitched more than 2.0 innings in a game all year. That should be good news for the Phillies as the Cubs bullpen has a 4.21 ERA this month (11th highest in MLB).
TBD
To be posted by 1230pm.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ over 5.5 K’s (-140 BET365)
The Diamondbacks SP has ratcheted up his game of late posting 18 K’s in his last two starts. This includes an 11-strikeout performance against the Rockies last week. The Giants are striking out at a high rate in September, over 28%, thus making this matchup very appealing.
PROP #2
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY –
DFS – 6:40PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 4.
Top Pitchers to Target:
HUNTER BROWN ($90800 DK):
While Seattle has cutdown on their prolific K rate, they still sit at the tops of the MLB at 27% for the season. And Hunter Brown can help keep that number in the pole position as his 24.8% K rate is one of the tops on the slate today. Brown has 171 K’s this season, good for 26th overall. But more importantly he has 19 K’s in three starts against Seattle, which is the most he has against any team this year. From an overall pitching perspective, he is 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA against the Mariners this year.
The Astros can clinch another AL West Division title tonight with a win at home. That is added motivation for the Astros to get a win for Brown. After their early season struggles, which was matched with their play against Seattle, the Astros have won three of their last four against the Mariners.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: AARON NOLA ($8600 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ ($6500 DK)
This looks like a complete mispricing by DraftKings today. Rodriguez has put up a total of 49.2 DK points in his last two outings. Yet, he’s the lowest price point of the season dropping from $6700 last week to $6500 today. And that’s on a short slate when prices can often be inflated. The key to his recent surge has been his strikeouts as Rodriguez has 18 K’s in his last two starts. That should be music to DFS players ears as the D’backs SP faces the Giants tonight and they come in with a 28.2% K rate (3rd highest) in September. Besides the high strikeouts, the Giants are also struggling at the plate as they are batting just 0.219 this month.
The D’backs are dying for quality pitching as the enter the last week of the season with the 4th highest ERA in baseball at 4.64. It looks like Rodriguez’s recent good form puts him in a spot to start a playoff game which adds additional fuel to the fire to keep up his positive performances.
HONORABLE MENTION:
Top Stacks to Target:
DIAMONDACKS:
While I say you could take a flier on Birdsong (26% K rate, opponents batting 0.215 off RHP), my favorite stack of the night is the Diamondbacks. They have the league’s highest scoring offense scheduled to tee off against a pitcher with an ERA near 5.00. That number balloons to 5.55 on the road. And Arizona faced him once this season and ended up chasing the Giants SP after 3 innings of work. To me, the primary hitter to circle our stack around is Ketel Marte, Arizona’s 2B is batting 0.333 with 4 homers in the last week. I’ll also look at Josh Bell, batting 0.429 in the last week, and Gabriel Moreno, batting 0.400 in last 6 games. We also need some Christian Walker as Birdsong struggle more against RH batters, yielding 7 of his 10 homers to righties.
Other Stacks to Consider: PHILLIES, BLUE JAYS
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