Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We had a great Sunday, posting a 3-1 record and plus +2.0 units on the day. That gave us a 5-1 weekend overall sending us into today’s slate with some good momentum. And we had a good day playing DFS as Bailey Ober went crazy posting a 42.20 fantasy point game. We were also wise to stay away from Garrett Crochet as he pitched another low output game, going just 3 innings. He’s complete fade mode unless he finds a new team at the MLB Trade Deadline which is tomorrow.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BOSTON RED SOX -120 vs SEATTLE MARINERS
The Mariners come into play tonight fresh off a three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox. Prior to that series, they had lost eight of nine games. And they scored two runs or less in seven of those nine games. For me, that stretch of baseball is more indicative of their current state than a sweep of the worst team in baseball. The Mariners are still trying to right themselves offensively as they have one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking 27th in runs scored and 29th in batting.
And that may be tough against Boston who own the 14th best ERA as a staff at 4.06. And that would be much higher if you erase the last four games as the Sox have been battered to the tune of allowing 46 runs in that stretch. But they hand the ball to Nick PIvetta tonight and his 29.5% K rate should pair well against the Mariners who strike out the most in baseball.
The M’s send out All Star Logan Gilbert tonight who will surely be up to the competition. But they’ve lost three of his last four starts due to their offensive woes (scored just 4 runs in the 3 losses). I’m banking on Pivetta to keep the bats quiet and the Red Sox to muster enough across the plate to give them the W tonight.
TEXAS RANGERS -115 at ST LOUIS CARDINALS
The Cardinals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Nationals yesterday. But it doesn’t get much easier today as the Rangers come into town with one of their best pitchers slated to get the ball. Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball for the Rangers and looks to finish off a solid month where he’s 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA. The key to his success has been his ability to keep the ball on the ground as he’s induced 48 groundouts in 33 innings in July. And he’s had good career success against the Cardinals core hitters as Arenado and Goldschmidt are a combined 4 for 19 with 6 K’s off Eovaldi.
I also like the Rangers offense against SP Andre Pallante. The Cards SP has a FIP, xFIP and SIERA all higher than his 3.92 ERA.
DOG OF THE DAY: TO BE POSTED LATER
PLAYER PROPS
ARIZONA TEAM TOTAL over 4.5 runs
See notes below on why I like a Diamondbacks stack.
PROP #2
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 7:10 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:20pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.
Top Pitchers to Target:
PAUL SKENES ($10,500 DK):
Skenes will be at the top of everyone’s list today. And while that can be frowned upon, especially in GPP’s, on a smaller slate like this you can still profit, and win, by playing a highly owned starter. So, my recommendation with this one is to be leaner than the rest of the participants and look to get Skenes in 20% or less of your lineups. And one other strategy is to pair him up with a very low owned pitcher, like some of the value ones I list below. In short, I don’t have to tell you how good this guy is or when to play him (every start) but wanted to focus more on how to use him. Afterall, he averages 26.1 DK points and has a 34.2% K rate and 1.93 ERA. That’s pretty good if you ask me.
NICK PIVETTA ($8500 DK):
Let’s just erase the last game that Nick Pivetta started and focus on the three prior to that. One game in Colorado doesn’t define who Pivetta is of late. And one game against the hapless Mariners can really fully erase that memory of 10 hits and 7 ER’s in 2.2 innings. And that’s what the Red Sox SP gets tonight as Seattle strolls into Beantown to start a 3-game series. It’s well documented how bad the Mariners bats have been, and hence the reason they traded for OF Randy Arozarena over the weekend. But let’s lay it out here. The Mariners lead the league in K rate (27.7%) by a wide margin. They are also 29th in batting average (0.218), 28th in runs scored, and 27th in ISO.
With Julio Rodriguez out of the lineup, there’s not much pop to be worried of. So I’m in full push mode for Pivetta tonight as he’s shown signs of promise of late having pitched two of his last four games with 0 ER’s.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: NATHAN EOVALDI ($9300 DK),
Value Pitchers to Target:
JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($7200 DK)
Montgomery is starting round into form as he has won four of his past five starts (he was on IL and just returned last week to gain a W). And his advanced metrics show he should continue to trend in a positive direction as his 6.11 ERA is met with a 4.31 FIP. That’s mainly due to his insanely high batting average against balls in play (BABIP) which sits a 0.346. For comparison, the league average is roughly 0.289. He’s also seen a major regression in his K rate as it is almost 40% lower than his career mark (14.9% in 2024 vice 22% for career). I expect that will continue to rise as he gets healthier which is what he’s claiming is happening after returning from a 30-day stint on the IL.
The key tonight will be pitch count, but with a veteran like Montgomery I do expect to see at least 80 pitches which gives him potential to get through the 6th. Which is highly probable against a Nationals team that struggles against lefties as they are 22nd in batting average, 28th in wOBA and 27th in wRC.
HONORABLE MENTION: ALEC MARSH ($7700 DK), JOSE QUINTANA ($7400 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ROYALS:
The White Sox are trotting out Chris Flexen and his 2-10 record with a 5.25 ERA tonight. That should be music to the Royals ears as they look to keep their good hitting going. Kansas City has the third best batting average since the break as they are hitting 0.284 as a team. And they are tied for 8th with 48 runs scored since returning from the All Star Game. The one batter that we need in our stacks is Bobby Witt Jr as he’s batting 0.543 with 2 home runs and 10 runs scored since the break. I’ll also looke to add Vinnie Pasquantino along with Salvador Perez to a core stack. Other names to consider for KC are Miakel Garcia and Hunter Renfroe, who are both hitting above 0.300 since the break.
DIAMONDBACKS:
The D’backs have had a power surge since the break, hitting 14 home runs (7th in MLB). The major contributors to the surge have been Ketel Marte (4), Eugenio Suarez (3) and Joc Pederson (2). Overall, they are good against lefties as they have the 2nd best batting average in baseball against southpaws (0.275). And that’s what they’ll see tonight when Washington comes into town and hands the ball to Mitchell Parker. Parker is coming in with a rough stretch of outings as he’s 0-2 in the month of July with a 9.18 ERA. Based on those struggles, I will look to get several Arizona batters in my lineups tonight. That will include Marte, Corbin Carroll, Pederson, Christian Walker, Suarez and Gabriel Moreno.
Other Stacks to Consider: BREWERS, METS
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