Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We’re still riding a good streak with our bets and look to continue that into this week. We have nine games on the full slate while DFS will focus on the eight games starting at 640pm. The big question of the night will be whether the White Sox will continue their historic futility and tie the AL record with 21 straight losses. Obviously, that means Oakland SP JP Sears should be in your player pool. But we’ll also give you some other names which could be a difference in turning your screen green.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MINNESOTA TWINS -120 at CHICAGO CUBS
The Twins roll into the Windy City fresh off a sweep of the Chicago White Sox. While that shouldn’t make headlines, the Twins record since May 20th should. After a disappointing loss to the Nationals to drop Minnesota to 24-23, they have gone on a tear and have the best record in baseball since that night posting a 38-25 mark. What’s been impressive is their offense, having scored the 4th most runs and owning the 2nd best batting average in that stretch. And they’ve been very good on the road as they have posted a 30-27 record, being only one of six AL teams with a winning record away from home.
Why I particularly like the Twins tonight is because they’re in the role of a road favorite. In that position, they are 20-7 on the moneyline. And their opponent, the Cubs, have struggled in games in which their SP, Kyle Hendricks, has pitched. Overall he is 3-9 but the Cubs are 5-15 in his appearances. Add to that Chicago is just 4-7 on Mondays and overall just 15-22 in series openers. While the Twins are rolling out a virtual unknown in David Festa, he’s pitched well of late accruing 13 K’s in his last two starts. I’ll back the hotter offense that plays well in the role of road favorite against a team that struggles mightily with their pitcher on the mound.
MLB GAME 2
TBD
DOG OF THE DAY: TO BE POSTED LATER
PLAYER PROPS
AARON NOLA over 5.5 K’s (-130 DK)
As noted in the Aaron Nola section below, the Dodgers have been striking out at a high rate in the last 10 days (over 30%). While the Dodgers may get Freddie Freeman back tonight, there are still K’s to be had. And Nola is comfortable in LA, as he’s averaged roughly 1 K/inning pitched in his career at Chavez Ravine (20 K’s in 20.1 innings).
PROP #2
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.
Top Pitchers to Target:
HUNTER BROWN ($9400 DK):
The Astros SP has been on a long hot streak, extending over 2 months, and spanning over 13 starts. In that run, he’s posted 11 quality starts and pitched 6 innings or more in 12 of those games. Brown’s other stats are impressive as well sporting an 8-3 record with a 2.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The young RHP has made some significant changes in his approach this year upping his changeup usage to 13.4% vice only throwing it 4% in previous seasons. Which is important to note as batter’s hit just 0.208 off that pitch. Additionally, he’s changed his approach to pitching against LH batters as he’s attacked them with a heavy arsenal of off-speed pitches. Which is reflected in his splits as left-handed batters hit 60 points lower than righties off Brown. And that’s important to note because the Rangers top 3 hitters, batting average wise, are all lefty in Seager, Lowe and Josh Smith.
AARON NOLA ($8800 DK):
It’s always a dicey proposition to attack the Dodgers. However, I think there’s enough data, both recent and long-term, to give us confidence in doing just that and putting Aaron Nola in our player pool tonight. Firstly, the recent performance of the Dodgers has been somewhat troubling. They are sorely missing the likes of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, with the latter likely to return this week. In their last three series, the Dodgers are batting just 0.213 (4th worst in MLB) and have a 32.2% K rate (2nd highest). And that’s including a series against the Oakland A’s who have the 7th worst ERA in baseball. Additionally, Aaron Nola saw the Dodgers just over 3 weeks ago and he pitched a gem recording 29.9 DK points and racking up 9 K’s.
As far as the long-term data, in roughly 110 career at-bats, this Dodgers lineup has a paltry 0.216 batting average against Nola. And their whiff rate is 334.6% with a 28.3% K rate. And in his career, Aaron Nola is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA in Dodger Stadium.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: TYLER GLASNOW ($10,200 DK), LOGAN WEBB ($8400 DK),
Value Pitchers to Target:
DAVID FESTA ($6100 DK)
We’re diving deep into the value range tonight but David Festa’s recent performance can’t be ignored, especially at this price point. The Twins rookie SP has pitched well in his past 2 outings which has forced Minnesota to keep him in the rotation. Two outings ago, he came in the first inning after Sean Okert opened and went on to throw 4.1 innings allowing just 1 ER and striking out seven. In his last outing, he started against the Mets and allowed just 2 ER’s while striking out six over five innings of work. The impressive part is he’s posting a 24.7% K rate, which is 3rd highest on the slate trailing just Glasnow and Hunter Brown.
I also like the fact he’s facing the Cubs who have a 0.229 batting average since the break (23rd) and have just 15 homers in that stretch (6th least). Festa’s one weak spot has been the long ball as he’s allowed six in just 19.1 innings of work. But the Cubs power outage has not just been since the break, as they’re 20th in the league in HR’s with 115 on the season. So keep an eye on the wind tonight at Wrigley as it’s currently showing there will be a light breeze blowing in from center, which also boosts our confidence in playing Festa.
HONORABLE MENTION: JP SEARS ($7700 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
TWINS:
The Twins offense has been surging as they’ve posted the 5th most runs scored since the return from the All Star break (15 games). And that was propelled by their weekend series against the White Sox when they scored 29 runs in three games and batted 0.313 with six homers. Tonight, they travel to the Windy City to face the other Chicago team when they take on the Cubs and Kyle Hendricks. While the wind may be blowing in tonight, I like their chances to do damage against the Cubs SP. Hendricks is just 3-9 on the season with a 6.86 ERA. His recent form is poor too as he’s allowed 12 runs in his past three starts. Over the past 9 games, the best hitters on the Twins offense have been Jose Miranda (0.300), Matt Wallner (0.333) and Christian Vasquez (0.350). And the power has come from Byron Buxton (3 homers) and Royce Lewis (3 homers) in that stretch. I’ll also consider Willi Castro and Max Kepler as LHP’s have seen the better success of Hendricks batting 0.308 with 12 HR’s.
DIAMONDBACKS:
The D’backs are on fire of late, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. While they’ve had good pitching, it’s been an offensive explosion that has carried the D’backs into contention in the NL West. On the season they are 4th in batting, 6th in slugging %, 6th in ISO and 6th in wOBA. Over the past 10 games, they’re 2nd in batting, 3rd in home runs, 1st in slugging % and 1st in OPS. I’m going to back that hot streak as they take on the Guardians in Cleveland tonight. Logan Allen takes the ball for the Guardians and he owns a 5.67 ERA with 18 homers surrendered. I’ll be looking to get a solid part of the RH batters in the Dbacks lineup as Allen has allowed 14 of his 18 homers to righties. Those will include Eugenio Suarez, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Other Stacks to Consider: SF GIANTS (it’s Patrick Corbin night! Love Tyler Fitzgerald)
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