Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We had a solid day yesterday on both the betting and DFS fronts. Our bets came home with a 3-1 record and +2.15 units. Our DFS screens were bright green as we rostered the highest scoring pitcher in Kevin Gausman. And we hit on a big Yankees and Phillies stack as well as secondary pitchers in Eric Fedde and Zebby Matthews. Today’s slate brings us a solid set of 6 games. The pitching looks to be a challenge again as the top salary is just $9200 on DK. So we’ll have to be smart and hit on our pitchers, but the good news is that it does leave room for bigger bats.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
KANSAS CITY ROYALS -125 at CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (GAME 1 @ 1:10PM EST)
This isn’t rocket science or advanced math. But the fact is, the Guardians are 0-6 in double header games this year. That means they’ve been swept in all three double headers they’ve played. Whatever it is, Cleveland doesn’t fare well when posed with a long day of baseball. And more concerning is the Guardians recent play. Even with two straight wins against Texas, Cleveland is just 3-6 in their last 9 games. If we go back to the beginning of July, the Guardians are a sub 0.500 team with a record of 22-24.
Today’s game against Kansas City starts a stretch where they play the Royals seven times in the next ten days. This stretch will go a long way in determining the AL Central champion, with Minnesota tightly locked to their TV. For me, I’m backing the Royals because of several things including Cleveland’s struggles in double headers. The other is the pitching matchup as the Guardians hand the ball to relief pitcher Nick Sandlin with what is sure to be a bullpen game. While the back end of Cleveland’s bullpen is a strength, their overall ERA is just 13th in the league at 3.80. On the other side, KC gives the ball to SP Cole Ragans who has an impressive 3.30 ERA but an even more stellar 3.00 FIP. The latter is good for 6th best in the MLB.
Combine the pitching gap with Cleveland’s offensive metrics in August (0.218 BA vs LHP’s, 24th in wOBA) and I like KC to take Game 1 today.
MINNESOTA TWINS -130 vs ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves finished off an impressive week going 4-2 against division rivals in the Phillies and Nationals. But in doing so, they didn’t score more than 4 runs in any one game. And that includes an extra-inning affair. The offensive struggles are real and think they will struggle to put together consistent offense tonight in Minnesota versus Baily Ober (see Ober’s write up in the DFS section). Also, Braves SP Max Fried has a 6.10 ERA in four starts in August. His velocity and location have been troubling as well as control as he’s walked 12 batters in those four starts.
DOG OF THE DAY: SAN DIEGO PADRES +100 at ST LOUIS CARDINALS
PLAYER PROPS
RYAN PEPIOT over 6.5 K’s (-125 DK)
We all know the Mariners and their propensity to help SP’s get to high K numbers. But the primary reason for this play is both Pepiot’s own K rate and his likelihood of pushing past 90 pitches. For one, the Rays SP K rate is 26.2% trailing just Ragans and Wheeler today. Secondly, this will be his 3rd game back from the IL and he’s gradually increased his pitch count from 80 to 90. Prior to his stint on the IL, he did get to 101 pitches. I think the Rays will give him mid-90’s today to see how he responds at higher workloads. If he’s in their plans for next year, which he obviously should be, then testing out Pepiot’s stamina will be one of their goals in September.
PROP #2
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 7:10 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 6.
Top Pitchers to Target:
BAILEY OBER ($9200 DK):
The Twins SP is 12-5 on the year with a 3.54 ERA. More impressive has been his run over the past 2 months. In that stretch he has 11 consecutive quality starts. And in those starts he is 7-1 with a 2.42 ERA. He’s also a much better pitcher at home where he posts a 7-1 record with a 2.78 ERA in 10 starts. Today he faces the Atlanta Braves who have struggled mightily with offense over the past week. Even with series wins against Philadelphia and Washington, the Braves have scored the least runs (16) in the last seven days. In that same stretch, they also have a high strikeout rate, at 25.8% which is good for 10th highest in the MLB. The likes of Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela and Rafael Laureno have been part of the problem. But they haven’t seen much production from key regulars like Matt Olson, Sean Murphy or Orlando Arcia. I like Ober to take advantage of a watered-down lineup and continue his recent excellence.
BRYCE MILLER ($8900 DK):
Speaking of teams struggling with the bats, the Tampa Bay Rays come into tonight’s matchup with Seattle trying to vie for who has the worse offense. The Rays are batting just 0.197 with a 28% K rate over the last week. And that includes 3 games against the A’s. As for Miller, his 23.5% K rate is the 3rd highest on the slate today. We also have to take into his splits which show a massive difference between home and away. At home, Miller has a 2.09 ERA, 0,90 WHIP and a 0.188 opponents batting average. On the road, that balloons to 4.75 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 0.241 opponents batting average. Good news is, this game is in Seattle. Because of all that, Miller is a prime target tonight for DFS.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: RYAN PEPIOT ($8200 DK) – For similar reasons with Miller above. Seattle is terrible at hitting and Pepiot’s K rate is 2nd highest on board.
Value Pitchers to Target:
DAVIS MARTIN ($7500 DK)
The Tigers offense was on fire this weekend, scoring 27 runs in three games. They also gave the White Sox their 100th loss on the season marking only the 2nd time in MLB history a team has 100-losses by August 26th. But I’m going to take a flyer on Davis Martin tonight as his K rate matches well with the Tigers. The White Sox SP has started four games to date and has struck out 22 batters in 22.1 innings. The Tigers have been welcoming to strike out pitchers, as they are posting a 26.6% K rate over the past 7 games. On the season, they have the 10th highest rate at 23.4%. But the other key is Detroit doesn’t walk much, posting the 6th lowest BB% in baseball. Martin has struggled with his control as he has a 12.4% walk rate, but Detroit could help his wild ways turn into K’s which is another factor I’m considering.
HONORABLE MENTION: EDWARD CABRERA ($6200 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
PADRES:
The Padres won yesterday’s tilt with the Mets in thrilling fashion and Jackson Merrill walked it off in the 9th with a home run. They bring that momentum to St Louis today when they take on the Cardinals and SP Kyle Gibson. Speaking of Gibson, he’s struggled in August posting an 0-1 record and 5.48 ERA. In one outing, he allowed four home runs to Cincinnati. He’s also struggled at home this year going 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA. And the Padres power hitters have had success off Gibson with the trio of Arraez, Machado and Boegarts posting a 0.415 batting average off the Cards SP. I’ll look to get a share of those bats as well as Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar and David Peralta. For a cheap option, depending on starting status, I will consider Mason McCoy who is batting 0.385 over the past 10 days.
MARLINS:
The Marlins were a surprise winning stack yesterday as they rang up 7 runs and two homers on their way to victory over the Cubs. Now they travel to Coors Field and take on Ryan Feltner who is scheduled to come off the IL to pitch tonight’s game. Feltner has missed 3 weeks of action due to shoulder discomfort which could boost Miami’s success rate against the veteran. I’m going to look towards the projected top of the order with Xavier Edwards, Jake Burger and Connor Norby (0.375 BA & 2 HR in L6 games). I’ll also consider Jonah Bride and Jesus Sanchez who have both provided some power of late.
Other Stacks to Consider: RED SOX – One interesting attack will be using Boston bats today as Berrios ERA on road is 2.5x higher than at home. He’s also 3-7 away from Toronto (9-2 at home).
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