Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We’re still riding a good streak with our bets and look to continue that into this week. We hit 2 of 3 game bets yesterday as our “dog of the day” Cleveland came through as well as the Yankees. DFS was solid as we had two of the top four pitchers in our article yesterday in Tanner Bibee and Albert Suarez. But it was the hitting that carried the slate as Yankees stacks (which we nailed) and Houston batters paved the path to green.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BOSTON RED SOX -120 vs TEXAS RANGERS
Going back to the Red Sox after they got smoked on Sunday against the Astros. But more importantly they were swept by Houston and carry a 4-game losing streak into today’s game. But here’s one reason I’m liking the Sox tonight. The bets are coming in at a heavy rate on Boston but the money is coming in even higher. That number tells me the sharps are on it. Plus Texas isn’t playing much better sitting at 3-8 with a 6.53 ERA in their last 11.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS -110 vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The beginning half of the year was dismal for the Angels. By the 5th of June after 59 games, they fell to 21-38, which was their low mark of the season. But in their next 59 games, which culminated yesterday, they’ve played respectable baseball posting a 31-28 record. A lot of that improvement has come at home as they were on a pace to be one of the worst home teams in MLB history following a loss to the Yankees on May 30th. That dropped their record to 7-21 and a 0.250 winning percentage. But since then, they are 19-15 at home.
As for the Blue Jays, they have been a disappointment all season. But their road record is the most damaging as they sit with the 3rd worst away record in the AL, trailing just the White Sox and Athletics. The Jays heading to LA with their heads down as they lost two of three to the A’s and scored just 7 total runs in that series.
DOG OF THE DAY: TO BE POSTED LATER
PLAYER PROPS
PROP #1
PROP #2
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 7:10 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.
Top Pitchers to Target:
BLAKE SNELL ($9300 DK):
The Giants SP has figured it out and it’s starting to show in the results. In his last 3 starts he’s allowed just three runs but more impressively, he’s struck out 34 batters. And his advanced metrics suggest he is still headed for positive regression as his 4.31 ERA is met with a 3.11 FIP and 3.41 SIERA. Tonight, he returns home to face the Braves. That’s good news as his home ERA is 1.5 runs lower than his road numbers. He is also much more efficient from a strikeout perspective as he has a 12.6 K/9 at home vice 10.2 K/9 on the road. As for the Braves, they are struggling mightily with a 3-7 record in August. More disappointing, those series included the Rockies and Marlins. The offense has been sputtering, ranking 17th in batting on the season. Core hitters in the Braves lineup (Riley, Ozuna, Olson, and Soler) are a combined 5 for 29 off Snell. I’ll take the hot pitcher in a matchup against a team that is at a low point in the season.
LUIS GIL ($9000 DK):
There is a lot of good pitching matchups tonight, but there’s not one better than Luis Gil against the White Sox. While this will be chalky, in a DFS GPP we can afford to swim with the fish and try to get different with our 2nd pitcher and bats. The biggest issue anytime Gil takes the mound is his control. Out of all qualified pitchers, he has the highest walk rate at 12%. Out of his 22 starts, he’s walked at least three batters in 11 of them. But the good news for him is, the White Sox don’t walk much at all. They are 29th in BB% and 29th in total walks. The other good news is they are 8th in K rate at 24.2% which pairs up well with Gil’s 28.5% K rate.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: CHRIS SALE ($10,500 DK), BRANDON PFAADT ($8600 DK), BRADY SINGER ($8400 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
DAVIS DANIEL ($7200 DK)
The Angels SP was scheduled to start yesterday, but LA decided to reverse course and push him back a day to get him on full rest. And that’s good news as he gets a favorable matchup against the Jays and more importantly, gets to pitch at home. Even with a short data set, the splits between home and away are eye-opening. Daniel has a 4.32 ERA at home but a 9.35 ERA away from LA. Additionally, Toronto’s offense has been stagnant of late. In the month of August they are 24th in wOBA and 24th in wRC+.
HONORABLE MENTION: BOWDEN FRANCIS ($5800 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
BREWERS:
Gone are the days of completely fading attacking Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers future HOF’er has struggled in his start to the 2024 campaign. While there were signs of improvement in his last start against the Phillies, that was fueled by Philly batters swinging outside the zone. Kershaw’s velocity is down (fastball 0.5 mph lower than 2023) and his GB% is the lowest of his career. Yes, it’s only been three starts, but there are some concerning signs. As for Milwaukee, they are hot at the plate. The Brewers are 2nd in batting, 2nd in OPS, 2nd in wOBA and 2nd in wRC+ this month. One bat to strongly consider is Jackson Chuorio who is batting 0.375 off LHP’s this month. Another name to pencil in is Rhys Hoskins who is batting 0.303 this month with 2 homers. He also has Kershaw in his books with four hits in nine at-bats including a home run. The other big RH bats should be considered as well which includes William Contreras and Willy Adames. If Andruw Monasterio ($2300 DK) starts, he could be a big value play as the utility player is batting 0.500 this month.
DIAMONDBACKS:
I saw it firsthand over the weekend. The D’backs are crushing the ball. They put up 23 runs in the final two games of their series with Philly including chasing All-Start Cristopher Sanchez after racking up 11 hits and 7 runs against the lefty. And their numbers aren’t just stellar for 2 games, they’ve been on a tear for 2+ weeks. The D’backs lead the league with a 0.295 batting average and 66 runs scored this month. One batter that is particularly on fire is Jake McCarthy who is batting 0.375 with three home runs and twelve RBI’s this month. You’ll also want to consider Ketel Marte (6 HR’s this month), Corbin Carroll (3 HRs), Joc Pederson (4 HRs) and Josh Bell (4 HRs). But I also want to introduce you to a value player named Adrian Del Castillo ($2100 DK). The D’backs rookie was called up over the weekend and all he did was hit a walk-off homer and bat 0.583 in the series against Philly. He must be in your lineup tonight, whether in a stack or solo, if he plays.
Other Stacks to Consider: SD PADRES
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.
