Dave Gloeckner 
We had a jam packed Sunday but one that put money in our pockets. My MLB Game Bets were 2-1 with an underdog, the Pittsburgh Pirates, pulling off a stunning walk-off win against the O’s. And my MLB Prop Bets went 2-1 as well bringing home an overall +2.75 units yesterday. We look to keep the early season profit train rolling today in both betting the DFS.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
CINCINNATI REDS -110 vs MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Graham Ashcraft takes the mound tonight for Cincy. And he’s looked good accept for the home run ball, which he’s allowed two to Bryce Harper for his only runs allowed last game in Philly. While it’s just one game, we saw the Reds SP rely more on his sinker than years past (33% in 2024 versus 9.6% in 2023). And it worked as batter hit just 0.167 off that pitch with a 27.3% whiff rate. I’m interested to see if he’ll continue to swap out his cutter with the sinker going forward. But the main reason I’m taking the Reds is because they rank slightly higher in my power rankings than their opponent the Brewers. Milwaukee did not have high expectations starting the season but they’re off to a tremendous start. I look for that to come back and regress slightly especially heading out to a division rival.
PROJECTED LINE: Reds -135 / 40% EV
TAMPA BAY RAYS -145 vs LA ANGELS
The Angels had a good road trip but came home and lost 2 of 3 in their series with Boston last weekend. The Rays are throwing their ace today in Zac Eflin and I like his metrics against LA hitters. As a lineup, the Angels have a 0.246 batting average but just a 0.279 slugging percentage against Eflin. He’s allowed 0 home runs to anyone the Angels can send up to the plate tonight and just 2 extra-base hits. And that is over 64 plate appearances. On the other hand, Rays hitters, though in a small sample size, have good success of LA starting pitcher Tyler Anderson.
PROJECTED LINE: Rays -210 / EV +40%
DOG OF THE DAY: DETROIT TIGERS at PITTSBURGH PIRATES
The Pirates have been awesome for my Bankroll to start the year. But their ace SP Mitch Keller hasn’t been much help. He is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA. The Tigers are rolling out their 5th SP in Reese Olson but he’s been solid so far. The Pirates have won 5 games in their last at bat. That magic will eventually end and I’ll bet it’s today.
PROJECTED LINE: Pirates +110 / +5% EV
PLAYER PROPS
JOSE BERRIOS over 5.5 K’s (-130 DK)
The Mariners lead the league in K rate at 28.9%. And Berrios owns a 32.2% K rate in his career off Seattle bats. That includes striking out Mitch Haniger 7 times in 14 career at-bats. and JP Crawford 3 times in 7 at-bats.
JAKE BURGER over 0.5 RBI’s (+130 DK)
Burger is 2nd in the MLB with 12 RBI’s this season. Yankees starting pitcher Nester Cortes has allowed a 57% fly ball rate and the wind is blowing out to left in New York tonight at 10mph. I like Burger’s HR prop but will ride the plus money with his RBI number instead tonight as I see some runs being scored in the Big Apple.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – MARCELL OZUNA over 0.5 HR’s (+350 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Ozuna leads the Braves with 4 home runs this season. And he gets to face Mets SP Julio Teheran tonight who he has 4 career home runs against in 54 at-bats. Teheran does allow fly balls at a 41.4% clip and saw 14.3% of his fly balls go over the fence.
DFS – 7:07 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:07pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
CHARLIE MORTON ($10,000 DK): Morton has only one start this season and it was against the poor hitting White Sox. So we can understand why he put up a solid 25.2 DK points in that outing. But if there’s an offense that’s currently comparable to Chicago’s it’s tonight’s opponent, the New York Mets. The Mets rank 29th in BA, 28th in wOBA, 30th in ISO and 30th in wRC+. It’s pricey but I’m willing to tap into a strikeout heavy hitter versus a lineup that is underperforming.
ZAC EFLIN ($9000 DK): Eflin bounced back from a rough opener to shut down the Rangers last week. It’s last season, but he saw the Angels twice late in the year and had a 2.25 ERA with 14 Ks in 11 innings. Plus as stated above in the betting section, Angles hitters haven’t had success against Eflin as he owns a 25% K rate against their primary batters. And if you look back to last season, his FIP is 0.5 runs lower than his actual ERA showing, when healthy, that his stats are trending to positive performances in the near future.
ZAC GALLEN ($8200 DK): The Rockies came back down to earth yesterday as Rays SP Ryan Pepiot dominated Colorado batters to the tune of 0 ER’s and 11 K’s in 6 innings of work. Zac Gallen has started this year with an 0.82 ERA over 2 starts. He saw the Rockies just once last year but tossed 6 shutout innings. This seems like a mispricing by DK.
JAMES PAXTON ($8700 DK): The Dodgers SP was solid in his debut for LA. But he struggled with command issues. I like him to straighten that out today versus Minnesota who owns the lowest batting average in baseball. And they have the 3rd highest K rate 26.7%.
JAVIER ASSAD ($7400 DK): Assad caught our eyes for value last year. And he started this season with 6 shutout innings against Colorado. He has another favorable spot today pitching in a big park in San Diego. I like his salary and potential to put up 3x value.
SPENCER TURNBULL ($6900 DK): The Phillies SPs have the 4th best ERA in baseball. And their 5th starter, Spencer Turnbull, had one of the more impressive starts of their season when he shutout Cincy for 6 innings. He won the 5th spot in spring because of Taijuan Walker injury. He’s trying to hold onto that spot and like his chances against a Cardinals lineup batting just 0.222 on the year.
Top Stacks to Target:
DIAMONDBACKS: Arizona has the fortune of facing Kyle Freeland tonight. He has a 27.00 ERA and allowed 3 homers in 2 starts. Stack Dbacks righties tonight such as Marte, Walker, Gurriel and Suarez.
GIANTS: The Giants face Trevor Williams who had a 5.55 ERA last season. His FIP was worse at 5.98. I don’t see the 31 year old progressing and will deploy several Giants hitters tonight. My preference will start with Conforto and add in Lee, Wade, Chapman and
ASTROS: Andrew Heaney throws gas. But he also let’s up high exit velo. Astros have pop in the lineup and crush fastballs.
BRAVES: Listen this is simple. We offered cheap pitching where you can afford an Atlanta stack. Mets are rolling out ex- Braves SP Julio Teheran who just signed with the team a week ago.
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