Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Monday but no time to fret. As we’ve got a full slate of MLB to work into our busy schedules. But don’t worry about digging too deep as we have you covered here for both betting and DFS plays. We had a solid day at the Sweet Spot yesterday. While Seattle losing in extra innings hurt, we still ended up 3-2 overall with a -.10 loss. Our plus money bets came up on the right side to save the day. As for DFS, the combination at the top of Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola paid off as both registered 29+ DK points. The value play of Casey Mize was big too as he brought in 3.5x value with a 20+ DK point performance. Overall, it was a green screen day in both cash and GPP and we’ll look to roll that into tonight’s featured card.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
PITTSBURGH PIRATES -140 vs MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The fun loving Buccos have turned into the Pittsburgh Pirates of the past 2 decades. What was a thrilling start to the season has come spiraling downwards as the Pirates have lost 6 in a row, which includes two sweeps at the hands of the Mets and Red Sox. But today they turn to Jared Jones who has pitched very well to start his rookie season. While he is 1-2 overall with a 3.13 ERA, the Pirates have scored just 7 runs in his four starts. In those games, Pittsburgh has faced quality arms such as Ranger Suarez, Grayson Rodriguez and Jose Quintana. Today, they get a much easier test in Brewers SP Joe Ross. While Ross has been impressive and has a FIP that is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA, his xFIP much higher. He’s allowed 10 runs in his last two starts which includes 14 hits in 11 innings. Let’s back the better pitcher tonight in Jones and get back to those lovable Pirates and not the ones that make us yearn for the days of Sid Breem.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -108 at CINCINATTI REDS
The Phillies are now the hottest team in baseball as they’ve won 6 games in a row. While they have been carried by their starting pitching, the offense has awoken over the last week as they averaged 6.33 run/game in their winning streak. Today they hand the ball to Ranger Suarez who has been nothing short of fantastic. In fact, he pitched the best game of his career last week by throwing a complete game shutout versus the Rockies. Tonight, they face SP Hunter Greene who tops 100 mph with his fastball but also struggles with command. His 9.8% walk rate is almost identical to the Phillies lineup which has a 9.6% BB percentage. The Phillies are also top 10 in weighted runs versus Greene’s top pitch, the slider. I think this sets up well for a Phillies team that is squaring up the ball of late. Plus, it’s Ranger Suarez and his 1.73 ERA is good for 12th in the MLB.
DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +175 at MINNESOTA TWINS
This is a tough card for dogs so I’m going to swing for the fences. Yes, the White Sox are the worst team in baseball by a country mile. Yes, the White Sox are 3-18 on the season. And yes, Chicago is 1-9 on the road this season. But they have to win at some point and their setup with a decent matchup tonight in the Twin Cities. Outside of Chicago and Oakland, Minnesota has the worst offense in baseball. And White Sox SP Jonathan Cannon pitched well in his one start, allowing just 3 hits and 1 ER. On the other side, the Twins are starting Chris Paddock who 8.36 ERA and 6.92 FIP. Batters are hitting 0.375 off Minnesota’s SP. If there’s ever a time to take the White Sox it’s tonight as I see value on the biggest of all dogs.
PLAYER PROPS
TARIK SKUBAL over 6.5 K’s (-110 DK)
The Tampa Bay Rays have the 7th highest K rate against LHP’s this year at 24.8%. They’re coming off a series in New York where Yankees SP’s struck out 25 Rays batters (Schmidt had 7 Ks, Cortes had 9 Ks, Gil had 9 Ks). Batters have been attacking Skubal earlier in counts and I think he’ll adjust tonight. He has 26 k’s on the season and a healthy 28.3% K rate. This is a great spot and opponent to send those numbers even higher.
DYLAN CEASE over 7.5 K’s (+125 DK)
This is a plus money prop for a reason and that’s because of Cease’s control. He’s issued at least 2 walks in every game this year and has 11 free passes on the season. But the K rate is 30% and Colorado has 4th highest K rate against RHP’s. If Cease can somehow dial it in enough to limit his walks, he should go deep enough to cover this number.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TRAE TURNER over 0.5 SB’s (+230 DK) & over 1.5 H+R+R (-160 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
The Phillies SS is one of the hottest batters in baseball as he carries a 10-game hitting streak into today’s contest with the Reds. His batting average is 0.348 which is 7th best in the MLB. So we’ll ride the H+R+R prop based on his recent form. And then we’ll add the SB prop as Hunter Greene has already allowed 5 stolen bases on the season. Runners are also 9 for 11 in stealing bases off Cincy catcher Luke Maile. If Tyler Stephenson starts, this is even better as runners are 9 for 9 in successful SB’s.
DFS – 7:20 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:20pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 7.
Top Pitchers to Target:
BRADY SINGER ($9200 DK): Singer has been great so far this year. But the Blue Jays are a team that I tend to avoid based upon their propensity to make contact. The Jays are 26th in the MLB in K rate at 19.5%. But their power numbers are down, ranking just 19th in OPS and 15th in ISO. And what I like about this matchup tonight is that Singer has relied heavily on his slider, throwing that pitch 46% of the time. Batters are hitting just 0.175 off that pitch with a 39.8% whiff rate. Add to that, Toronto is 29th against the slider as rated by runs above average. So I’m willing to invest in Singer who has a top 10 ERA in the league in 2024.
DYLAN CEASE ($8700 DK): The Padres SP has been dominant to start the season. Which brings up memories of his runner-up Cy Young campaign of 2022. He’s allowed just 10 hits in 4 starts which have encompassed 22.2 innings. He’s also pitched at least 6 innings and gone over 100 pitches in each of his past 3 starts. We all know the Rockies struggle at the plate, so this is a green light matchup for Cease tonight even though it’s in a tough pitcher’s park.
YUSEI KIKUCHI ($8200 DK): The total in this game, 9 runs, is somewhat high based on the two pitchers going tonight. And the likely reason is high winds out in the Midwest (gusts of 20 mph blowing out to LF). But I’m willing to invest in both SP’s in KC tonight and stack bats on other teams. That’s because both Singer and Kikuchi have a GB% over 50%. Both rely on keeping the ball down using a heavy sinker and other off-speed offerings. Kikuchi has been great in 2024 as he has 29 K’s in 4 outings which has led to his impressive 21.4 DK points per start.
BRANDON PFAADT ($8000 DK): I’m going to attack a Cardinals lineup tonight that just hasn’t been good of late. They are coming off a shutout yesterday at the hands of Colin Rea and the Brewers. In fact, Milwaukee swept the weekend series allowing a total of 6 runs to St Louis. Brandon Pfaadt relies on a heavy dose of fastball and sweeper. The Cards rank 21st and 28th against those pitches respectively. While STL did some damage against Pfaadt two weeks ago, I look for the D’backs SP to adjust tonight and pitch a solid game.
Value Pitchers to Target:
JOSE QUINTANA ($6700 DK): Quintana hasn’t gone over 14 DK points in a start this season. But he’s been consistently getting better each start and should see some bigger outings in his future. At this price point, versus a SF team that is 19th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+, tonight could be that night. While the K rate is lower than desirable, he does have 4 K’s in each of his starts this year. And seeing a #1 SP in the value range is good enough for me to put him in my roster pool.
JONATHAN CANNON ($6000 DK): While it’s only one start in the MLB, rookie SP Jonathan Cannon impressed by throwing 5 innings and allowing just 1 ER. The 23-year old will make his 2nd career start tonight for the White Sox and he faces a Minnesota team batting just 0.195 on the season. The Twins also own a top five K rate adding fuel to the Cannon bandwagon as it sprints into Minnesota tonight. And I called shotgun for this one so let’s ride!
Top Stacks to Target:
ORIOLES: Reid Detmers is pitching great and his numbers show no signs of slowing down. But his two great starts were against a Boston team that is top 5 in K rate. The Orioles have good splits against LHP’s, and don’t strike out as frequent as the other teams Detmers has faced. The O’s are 7th overall in BA with a 0.271 numbers against lefties which includes 7 home runs. I’ll look at the top of the lineup, like Henderson, Mountcastle and Rutschman. But also look to get Santander and Westburg into my stacks.
PADRES: The Padres in Coors against LHP Austin Gomber. You know what to do here. Stack the power righties such as Bogaerts, Machado and Tatis while also giving attention to Kim, Profar and Campusano.
BRAVES:
DIAMONDBACKS: The Lance Lynn party wagon has been on a roll this year. But tonight, he faces a tough challenge with Arizona coming to town. The D’backs strike out at the lowest rate in the league (17%). And Lynn is coming off an outing with just 1 K versus Oakland. Plus, Arizona is a quality power team with top 10 numbers in HR’s (23) and OPS (0.732). We know Lynn’s Achilles Heel can be the long ball. So I’ll look to build a stack around power bats such as Marte, Carrol, Gurriel, Walker and Pederson tonight.
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