Dave Gloeckner 
We’re coming off a clean sweep yesterday with our game bets as we hit on Arizona, Oakland and Tampa. We also posted green screens in DFS as a Houston stack that included Altuve was a big winner for us. As for pitching, Berrios was the top pitcher on the board, and we hit with Ragans as a 3x value pitcher.
Today’s slate brings us 9 games including some aces for teams like the Dodgers, Reds and White Sox.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
I’ve been collecting data for the MLB season and tracking which teams are best to back and which are fades. To date, my money tracker ranks the following teams based on profit. As you can see, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and the New York Yankees are putting money in our wallets. On the opposite end of the spectrum are Seattle, Miami, Houston and the Chicago White Sox. Three of those teams were figured to be challengers for playoff spots and will turn the corner at some point. The White Sox could be an auto-fade all year.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -160 vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS
We just saw this exact matchup last week when Zach Eflin faced Angels in LA. The result was a 7-1 Los Angeles victory. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned about Zach Eflin over the past several seasons, it’s that he’s much better as pitching at home. Last year in Tropicana Field, he went 11-4 with a 3.30 ERA. In 2022, when pitching for Philly, he ERA at home was 5 runs better (1.73 vs 6.88). And the same was true in 2021 when he registered an ERA of 3.02 at home versus 5.12 on the road.
The Rays took 2 of 3 from San Francisco over the weekend to win their 3rd straight series. The Angels lost 2 of 3 to Boston to mark their 3rd straight series loss. We have two teams in opposite directions as well as a pitcher who often dominates in his home park. I’ll back the Rays for a 2nd straight day to bring us a W.
PROJECTED LINE: Ray -190 / 20% EV
SEATTLE MARINERS -145 vs CINCINNATI REDS
Mariners SP George Kirby has an impressive, and dubious, split between his actual ERA and FIP. His 8.16 ERA on the season projects to a fielding independent number of 2.97 which is good for a 5.16 difference. To be honest, it’s one of the largest I’ve ever seen for a SP. He’s allowed a 0.380 BABIP yet his hard hit rate is the lowest on the board today at 17.7%. He’s been a victim of bad luck and I see that changing tonight against a free-swinging Reds team. Cincy is 5th overall with a 25.3% K rate which should feed right into Kirby’s game. The Mariners have been disappointing but look to their #2 SP tonight to start a winning streak and put some money in our pockets.
DOG OF THE DAY: SAN DIEGO PADRES +105 at MILWUAKEE BREWERS
The Brewers almost pulled off the impossible and swept the Orioles (Baltimore hasn’t been swept in 96 consecutive series). But they fell just short in Sunday’s contest losing by a score of 6-4. San Diego is also coming into this game today off an impressive series where they won two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers. That includes a win last night on Sunday Night Baseball where the game didn’t end until almost 11pm EST.
While the Padres may have some jet lag, they’re also carrying confidence in their suitcases. Plus, they are throwing SP Joe Musgrove today who comes in with an inflated ERA (6.87) that has a FIP of 2 runs less (4.78). On the other side, the Brewers are sending out former Padres SP Joe Ross who has a 1.80 ERA but a 3.05 FIP and 4.37 xFIP. We see negative regression from Ross and positive regression from Musgrove plus we’re getting a dog price.
PROJECTED LINE: Padres +100 / +5% EV
DOG OF THE DAY #2 (BOGO): PITTSBURGH PIRATES +110 at NEW YORK METS
In Philadelphia, we used to have Dollar Dog night once a month at Citizens Bank Park. But then some yahoos decided to use them as projectiles so that promotion went away. However, the hot dog vendor (Hatfield) decided they couldn’t deprive fans of their beloved hot dogs. So they started the Buy One Get One Free Phillies Franks night! And because they have one tomorrow, against the Rockies, I’ve decided to roll out my Dog of the Day BOGO in today’s article.
The Pirates are the most profitable team in the majors this year. They just split a 4-game series in Philadelphia and are now 8-3 on the road. More impressively, they are 9-3 ATS as a ML dog. The Mets are just 2-6 ATS as a ML favorite and 3-6 at home. For those reasons, plus the gap in pitching between Pirates SP Martin Perez (1.89 ERA / 3.89 SIERA) and Mets SP Adrian Houser (5.40 ERA / 6.06 SIERA) that I’ll back the lovable Bucs tonight in the Big Apple.
PLAYER PROPS
GEORGE KIRBY over 6.5 K’s (-135 DK)
Kirby’s K rate is just 19.4% this year which is ~4% lower than his last two seasons combined. That’s primarily because he’s faced Toronto and Cleveland in two of his three starts. Those teams have the 5th and 6th lowest K rates in the league. When he did face a team in the top 10 in K rate, which was Boston, he registered 8 K’s. Look no further than the Reds who profile much like the Red Sox in terms of strikeouts.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 7:07 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:07pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TYLER GLASNOW ($11000 DK): It’s a hefty price, but one you could bit the bullet on based on the available quality arms in the $7K range. Before yesterday’s outburst of 6 runs, the Nats had scored just 5 runs in their prior 3 games. They’ve had 7 games this year scoring 3 runs or less and are last in the NL in runs scored.
GEORGE KIRBY ($8900 DK): Kirby has thrown two clunkers in a row. But that was against heavy contact teams that jumped on him early in the count. As shown above with our game bet on Seattle and prop bet on Kirby, this game sets up well for the Mariners SP.
SONNY GRAY ($8500 DK): Gray made his first start for St Louis last week and shined in that outing against Philadelphia. He allowed 0 ER’s and just 5 hits to the potent Phillies lineup. Tonight he faces the A’s who have scored just 47 runs, the 2nd lowest in the MLB.
SETH LUGO ($8400 DK): The Royal SP is 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. He’s gone at least 6.0 innings in each of his 3 starts this year. The only downside to his game is that he doesn’t strike many hitters out. That could change tonight against the White Sox who have a 25% K rate, good for 7th most in the MLB. If that does go Lugo’s way, he could easily exceed the 20 fantasy point plateau and return a nice value for us in DFS.
LUIS GIL ($7400 DK): The Yankees SP has a 3.00 ERA but a 2.81 FIP. That’s because he’s allowed just 3 hits in 2 starts this season. He’s been fighting some control issues, allowing 7 walks. But his 36.8% K rate is the highest on the slate today. Even though he’s facing a team that normally doesn’t strike out a ton, he saw them last week and registered 8 K’s. He’s worth a look in this value range.
BEN BROWN ($6300 DK): The Cubs SP is my favorite value of the night and can pair well at this price with a top tier arm. Brown had a bad opening start but has pitched well in his last 2 games averaging 16.4 DK points. His advanced metrics show a FIP (3.54) that is 2.5 runs lower than his ERA (6.10) showing positive regression is still coming. Brown is primarily a two-pitch pitcher relying on a good fastball and quality knuckle-curve. The D’backs feast on the fastball but can be had on the offspeed pitches so look for Brown to pitch backwards tonight and keep Arizona off-balance.
ROSS STRIPLING ($6000 DK): If you’re desperate for a cheap arm then Stripling could be your guy. He’s another pitcher showing positive regressing as his FIP is 2.25 points lower than his ERA.
Top Stacks to Target:
DODGERS:
BRAVES:
PADRES:
YANKEES:
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