Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a beautiful Tuesday here at The Sweet Spot. We have the sun shining and it finally feels like summer is near. Add to that we have some really good baseball series stating today and it makes it all more exciting to dive into the DFS pool tonight.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 9 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SHOHEI OHTANI ($11,600 DK)
In case you haven’t heard this before, I need a really compelling case to roster anyone over $11K and especially on a slate as big as this one. And that doesn’t change tonight with Ohtani. Yes, he’s been terrific on the mound posting a 4-0 record and 2.54 ERA. But he has allowed 9 ER’s in his past 2 starts and he’s facing the Houston Astros who are typically a top 10 batting team. So I think based on the price, recent play and matchup we have a fade spot for me.
Now, I still do like him to rack up the K’s tonight. But that’s for another article.
LOGAN WEBB ($9500 DK)
Logan Webb looks to be in the Sweet Spot for me. For one, he’s facing a team in the Nationals that is 27th in OPS and 29th in HR’s. I say that because if there’s been one major flaw in Webb’s performances this year it’s been the homers allowed. He’s let up 8 so far this year and at least one in 6 of his 7 starts. And this is coming from a groundball pitcher (GB rate of 58%). His HR/FB rate is the highest on the board today at 22%. That should be minimized versus a team in Washington that struggles in the power department.
And then there’s the consistency factor in Logan Webb. He’s thrown a minimum of 6 innings in all of his 7 starts except one. Add to that he’s putting up a career high in K rate and we have a pitcher that should be able to go deep into tonight’s game with good accessories to pile up the DK fantasy points.
GEORGE KIRBY ($9100 DK)
Facing Texas can be a challenging task for any starting pitcher. And tonight will be no different for George Kirby. However, I think he will shine in this spot based on a few factors. First off he’s neutralized the better lineups he’s faced this year in the Phillies and Cardinals. So he gets up for the competition. Secondly, he’s been better at home posting an ERA that is a half run lower than on the road. And finally, he fares well against Texas. He had 4 starts last year against the Rangers and posted a 1.99 ERA in those contests.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
LOUIE VARLAND ($6800 DK) & MICHAEL WACHA ($6600 DK)
To keep this simple tonight, I’m going to the Padres vs Twins game and recommend either Louie Varland or Michael Wacha. Both teams are having their issues at the plate and can be had by opposing pitchers. The Padres are 15th in wOBA and OPS and 23rd in batting average. More importantly they are 10th in K rate. Then there are the Twins who are 23rd in wOBA and OPS but last in batting average. They are also 3rd in K rate.
So while Varland or Wacha aren’t lighting up the ERA scoreboard, they are both in my player pool based on the lineups their facing and also the park factor of Target Field.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JAMESON TAILLON ($7500 DK) against the Cardinals. Taillon is making his 2nd start after returning from a groin injury. And his advanced numbers show he is headed towards positive regression. His 5.29 ERA is met with a 2.46 FIP. He has a hard hit rate at 30% and a BABIP of 0.347. Those two just don’t add up. So I’m willing to ride the veteran RHP tonight and look for him to start to lower that ERA in his upcoming starts.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in the MLB are the San Francisco Giants (vs Corbin), the New York Yankees (vs Rucinski), the Brewers (vs Syndergaard) and the Chicago White Sox (vs. Lyles). A sneaky stack you could roll out is Arizona versus Miami. Yes, I like Luzardo as a pitcher but Arizona has a lot of power from the right side and will challenge him tonight.
CORE BATTERS
LUIS ROBERT ($4600 DK)
The White Sox OF had a wakeup call after being benched a few weeks back for not hustling. And since that ominous day he has a hit in every game (7 total). Over the past 6 games he’s hitting 0.526 with 5 extra base hits. Additionally, he gets one of the softer pitchers on the slate tonight in Jordan Lyles.
LOURDES GURRIEL JR ($4800 DK)
I spoke about using an Arizona stack in the section above. The obvious plays are Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker. But the one you should be building around is Lourdes Guirriel Jr. In his last 4 games, he’s posted 93 DK points. And in the past 10 days, he’s batting 0.474. He’s been a consistent presence in the D’Backs lineup and we need to ride his hot streak while it lasts.
HARRISON BADER ($3600 DK)
Bader has been great since he returned from injury. The Yankees OF is batting 0.381 with 2 home runs and 7 RBI’s in the 6 games he’s played. He’ll look to keep that hot streak alive versus the worst starting pitching in the league in the Oakland A’s tonight.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
JOEY WIEMER ($2200 DK)
Wiemer is on a modest roll scoring 49 DK points over his past 4 games. In those contests, he has 4 hits and 4 RBI’s. Tonight he gets Noah Syndergaard who owns an ERA north of 6.00. Add Wiemer to any of your Brewers stacks tonight (pending he starts).
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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